Posted on 06/30/2020 4:23:16 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
We might be closer to herd immunity on COVID-19 than we think, a new model has found.
In herd immunity, enough people become infected with (and cured from) a virus, building antibodies that mean, at least for a while, they cannot catch the virus again. When enough people are included in that herd, the virus has few places to go and often dies off, or at least is greatly reduced.
Now, a new study from Nottingham and Stockholm Universities suggests that such immunity might be closer than many in the mainstream media say.
“According to their new mathematical model, far less people need to be infected with COVID-19 in order to reach herd immunity levels,” StudyFinds.com reported.
“That model, which was specially designed just for this study, categorizes people into different groups based on age and social activity levels. Once those factors are incorporated into herd immunity projections, the percentage of a population that would have to become immune drops from 60% to 43%,” they said.
“By taking this new mathematical approach to estimating the level for herd immunity to be achieved we found it could potentially be reduced to 43% and that this reduction is mainly due to activity level rather than age structure,” professor Frank Bell in a press release. “The more socially active individuals are then the more likely they are to get infected than less socially active ones, and they are also more likely to infect people if they become infected. Consequently, the herd immunity level is lower when immunity is caused by disease spreading than when immunity comes from vaccination.
“Our findings have potential consequences for the current COVID-19 pandemic and the release of lockdown and suggests that individual variation (e.g. in activity level) is an important feature to include in models that guide policy,” professor Bell concludes.
But the study’s authors say that their “43% number should not be looked at as an exact value, or even the best possible estimate.”
Even if that number is correct, there still might be a ways to go.
“Generally, 60% has been proclaimed as the herd immunity level needed among populations to stop COVID-19. That percentage was agreed upon because it is the usually accepted percentage of a population that must be vaccinated against an infectious disease to stop an outbreak from occurring,” StudyFunds wrote. “So, that 60% figure is based on the assumption that every member of a community is equally likely to be vaccinated and therefore immune. Of course, that’s clearly not what would happen regarding COVID-19 herd immunity, since there’s no vaccine. Instead, herd immunity for the virus would have to happen due to the virus spreading throughout a population.”
MORE HERE:
TITLE: Herd Immunity For COVID-19 May Be Closer Than It Seems, New Model Shows
and here:
Herd immunity can be achieved at 43%, new study finds
and here:
Herd immunity could develop from just 43% of people catching Covid-19 as long as it infects the most socially active, scientists claim
In the end, everyone will be exposed and 99.9% will get over it. Most people won’t know they had it.
Herd imunity in community housing for seniors may already be established
Pass. I get enough “any day now” tick-tocking in the political news.
Media and those who like to post fake surge numbers and graphs deeply saddened ...
Florida’s DoH dashboard says almost 2 million people tested, Less than 150,000 positive. 3500 dead. I would bet that includes people who tested positive but died of other reasons ...
When will “scientists” know anything about this virus?
My buddy got it, i only know directly one person who’s had it.
He recovered in a day, he upped his intake of antioxidants and zinc severely that day and cut it way short.
If you got it you’d probably know. he says its a unique feeling of achy tired.
i am always on a high antioxidant supplementation and dont get the flu or this.
Protect the elderly, immune compromised and disabled as normal then fully reopen, remove the useless masks and stop playing games with people's livelihood. Wouldn't you rather make a living for your family then lose your livelihood because the government will never admit it caused worse catastrophes then a virus.
We are 5 months (possibly more) into this virus and the sky is not falling. Personally, I don't know and haven't met a single person who was diagnosed with it. I have been asking everyone I meet as well and the answer has been "no" they don't know anyone with it. I know, not scientific method, but it has made me question a lot of things.
Meantime the governors and the whole establishment is trying like hell to AVOID or delay herd immunity as long as possible while milking it all to keep the economy anemic through the Election. I don’t understand why Republican governoers are going along with all this. They know that the current effort to resurrect The Great Panic is fraudulent. They have intelligent and perceptive advisors, surely! This “resurgence” is almost an artefact of widespread testing. Many people who would not ever have known they have WuHan are labeled as “new cases” which is NOT the same as increasing mortality. Some of these people are going now to the hospital who would have just stayed in bed for a couple of days without the testing.
Impossible.
We were told that we would never reach herd immunity with this killer virus!/S!
Really simple: the more you “flatten the curve” the longer herd immunity takes.
Color me shocked. Effing experts!
Watch Fredo’s brother try to claim “credit” if this polls well. He loves supporting murder. Spent his whole career doing so.
“...a new model has found...”
While I appreciate the possible positive tone, my interest in reports that begin with these words has just about evaporated.
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