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Hilary’s 95% chance of winning and today’s “polls”; both built on same faulty turnout models
vanity | Sept 5, 2018 | By Kevin Collins

Posted on 09/05/2018 9:05:06 AM PDT by jmaroneps37

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To: x

Off year elections are very difficult to predict, and can vary wildly from district to district and state to state.

Weather is a much bigger factor in off year elections than it is in presidential years, and that is just one example.

The media’s biggest lie is that they have a clue what turnout will be—they don’t and nobody else does either.


21 posted on 09/05/2018 9:58:07 AM PDT by cgbg (Hidden behind the social justice warrior mask is corruption and sexual deviance.)
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To: Prolixus

The fake polls are intended to discourage campaign donations.

Who wants to donate to a loser?

<<>>

Additionally, I believe they are designed to discourage
conservative voter from voting. Instills the ‘what’s the
use’ apathy.


22 posted on 09/05/2018 10:03:28 AM PDT by Joe Bfstplk (How unfortunate tarring and feathering was abandoned.)
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To: jmaroneps37

Hillary’s 95% chance of winning was built on FRAUD. They had the election rigged (at least they thought they did) so they created the polls to match the outcome and cover up the fraud.


23 posted on 09/05/2018 10:03:43 AM PDT by precisionshootist
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To: FrdmLvr

You are correct ... the place use to be a conservative stronghold ... now we are Mass North.


24 posted on 09/05/2018 10:07:35 AM PDT by CapnJack
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To: precisionshootist

Did they say why black voters didn’t get out to vote? My theory is blacks wanted to see Hillary and she never showed up. Basically they bit the hand of who pretended to feed them.


25 posted on 09/05/2018 10:09:03 AM PDT by EQAndyBuzz (Proud member of the DWN party. (Deplorable Wing Nut))
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To: PSUGOP

since I don’t have TV and rarely listen to radio it is based on people I talk to, overhear, and see holding signs all over the place for the Dems.

Very depressing up here in NH (formally the Live Free or Die State).


26 posted on 09/05/2018 10:10:06 AM PDT by CapnJack
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To: jmaroneps37

illegals will 100% vote for her...many times each.


27 posted on 09/05/2018 10:13:31 AM PDT by Leep
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To: jmaroneps37

I don’t believe every poll by any means but I think there’s an 80% chance the Dems take the House. The best chance to head that off is to make the races about impeachment and the border. However the RINO’S will steer clear of that and make it about “the strong economy” or something else calculated to be uncontroversial.

The economy being strong doesn’t drive people to the polls, but RINO’S are idiots. At least this could have the benefit of purging a lot of RINO’S.


28 posted on 09/05/2018 10:27:44 AM PDT by lasereye
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To: jmaroneps37
"A review of the 6 ½ hour Youtube of NBC’s coverage revealed a lot about how the media had been lied to"

Huh? You mean how the media used made up lies.

29 posted on 09/05/2018 10:46:09 AM PDT by Mr. K (No consequence of repealing Obamacare is worse than Obamacare itself.)
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To: EQAndyBuzz

Ya I think they figured they fraud vote margin would make up for her lack of campaigning.


30 posted on 09/05/2018 10:54:21 AM PDT by precisionshootist
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To: jmaroneps37

But...Russia.

I also noticed that at least in the public polls the state polls were more than useless using sample sizes of 500 to 800. Did the candidates have better polls than these?


31 posted on 09/05/2018 12:08:07 PM PDT by Sam Gamgee
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To: precisionshootist

That 95% came from election betting odds, did it not?


32 posted on 09/05/2018 12:09:25 PM PDT by Sam Gamgee
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To: Sam Gamgee
"That 95% came from election betting odds, did it not?"

May have been. My post was really saying the dems confidence in Hillary as a sure win was based on massive Fraud at all levels.

33 posted on 09/05/2018 12:33:52 PM PDT by precisionshootist
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To: FrdmLvr
I think black turn out will be much higher in 2018 and 2020. However, they don’t be voting D.
I’m not quite that optimistic; I assume the best case is higher percentage for Trump along with low black turnout. Only so many additional Trump votes - but a better percentage because of low turnout, because of people not wanting to admit to themselves that they want the Republican to win. So, lots of “half votes” for the Republicans in the form of not voting at all.

34 posted on 09/05/2018 1:00:08 PM PDT by conservatism_IS_compassion (Journalism promotes itself - and promotes big government - by speaking ill of society.)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...
Fake Polls / Partisan Media Shills / DNC Incitements to Riot ping.

35 posted on 09/05/2018 2:02:51 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (www.tapatalk.com/groups/godsgravesglyphs/, forum.darwincentral.org, www.gopbriefingroom.com)
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To: jmaroneps37

I don’t care what the polls say. I don’t care if they’re certain every Republican will win or every Republican will lose.

I know I will vote Republican on November 6th, and I will be giving rides to stay-at-homes and older folks who need them. I have already been calling, asking at church, or when we meet at the local grocery, etc., asking them if it’s ok to periodically remind them and be a driver for them come election day.

If it’s cold and raining I’ll have the truck heated and hot chocolate. If it’s hot I’ll I’ve the cool air on and a diet coke or water!

I have a list of folks I know who I’m doing this for.

Imagine if EVERY FReeper did the same?

See my tagline.


36 posted on 09/05/2018 2:33:34 PM PDT by Alas Babylon! (Vote GOP this November. Take two friends to vote with you!)
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To: jmaroneps37

It’s looks like voter fraud on the part of socialists will be playing a big role in the upcoming elections.

As corrupt as the FBI is - it would be nice if they just cared about the country one last time... They need to ‘seed’ the voter roles in swing states with fake names and arrest the people who ‘vote’ the non-existent people.


37 posted on 09/05/2018 2:40:51 PM PDT by GOPJ (Republicans act like they're at a country club- Democrats like they're at a boxing match. Starboard)
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To: PGR88

The only remaining institutions not soiled by the Left are the temporary, federal institutions: the Electoral College and a Convention of States.

And the barbarians are working very hard to corrupt the Electoral College.

That leaves one clean institution remaining.


38 posted on 09/05/2018 5:03:45 PM PDT by Jacquerie (ArticleVBlog.com)
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