Posted on 09/05/2018 9:05:06 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
During the Democrats’ long agonizing Election Night coverage of Donald Trump’s victory, one thing was clear: The media believed the polls.
They only bothered to question them when the real numbers came in.
Michigan’s results are a classic example of the disconnect between the polls and reality.
A review of the 6 ½ hour Youtube of NBC’s coverage revealed a lot about how the media had been lied to and never bothered to check the truthfulness of what they were being fed.
The polls told them what they wanted to hear and that was good enough.
These observations were made during a review of the evening’s reports from NBC but they probably could have been found on a Youtube of the evening of the reporting on any other station.
As early as 7:30 PM EST The problem with Blacks not showing up to vote showed themselves in Cleveland where the presumed need for a court order to keep the polls open was not needed.
To the surprise and dismay of the panel, African Americans were not showing up.
In fact Black voters as a percentage of all voters in Ohio fell 7.5%.
At 8:20 PM The panel remarked that African American turnout in Michigan and North Carolina was lower than normal.
In fact Black voting as a percentage of all votes in Michigan fell 12.4%; and as a percentage of all voters in North Carolina fell 7.1%.
At 9:15 PM The panel said reports showed the Trump camp had expected a drop off of voting in African American areas in Michigan especially flint.
At 10:45 PM The panel was completely flustered about what was happening in Detroit.
They mentioned that Obama had gone to Detroit to rally Blacks to vote for Hillary Clinton. but it didn't help.
In fact the three county Detroit area saw a drop of 50,000 votes.
Clearly an EPIC poll from Oct 5 showing Clinton ahead 11 points was built on faulty turnout models.
Trump had honest pollsters who adjusted their turnout models as it became clear that African Americans were less enthused about voting than the Democrats needed them to be.
Having a better turnout model gave Trump the confidence to campaign in Michigan even up to 12:30 AM on Election Day.
Nevertheless, the use of faulty turnout models was not confined to Democrats.
Later on, the panel said they had spoken to National Republicans (read GOPe) who were confounded by Trump’s insistence upon campaigning in Wisconsin.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee – the guys in charge of funding Republican Senatorial campaigns - pulled out of Wisconsin and left Republican Ron Johnson to run to Trump for help.
To their credit at least the NRSC admitted their mistake and went back into Wisconsin.
Senator Johnson won by 3.4% and Trump won Wisconsin by 1 point.
The drop in African American turnout as a percentage of all voters in Wisconsin was, at 12,3%, second only to the falloff of African American voters in Michigan.
The faulty turnout models missed that; Trump's honest turnout models did not.
Wisconsin shows as clearly as can be laid out that Trump’s 27,257 vote victory there was purely a product Blacks staying home and had zero to do with Paul Ryan or Reince Priebus.
They and the NRSC used faulty turnout models; but Trump rejected them and won.
How sure were the pollsters that they KNEW how Blacks would vote?
They missed the lack of African American voter enthusiasm in Florida where the fall off was 4.2% and Trump won by just 119,000 votes.
In Pennsylvania the 2016 to 2012 fall off of Black voters as a percentage of all voters fell 2.1% and Trump won by 68,236 votes.
Shortly after mid-night the panel said that every four years the Republicans chase the rainbow and think they can win Pennsylvania.
They said Democrats were laughing at Trump saying, “He won’t get one vote in Pennsylvania.”
Their faulty polls built on faulty turnout models told them it was foolish for Trump to waste time and money chasing after Pennsylvania.
Trump knew better; he had honest turnout models.
This is why Hillary Clinton had a 95% chance of winning and the blue wave is coming: The Democrats are chasing a rainbow using faulty turnout models.
The hard facts are that every economic factor is up and up big. We had a 4.2% GDP and the same Fed office who correctly predicted that is predicting a 4.7% GDP for 3rd Quarter numbers. 56% of voters say Democrats are out of step with America and 85% of blue collar workers - the ones who turned out big for Trump are satisfied with the economy. No blue wave coming PERIOD!
the problem is the rats are chomping at the bit to vote..unlike 2010 and 2014 when the GOPe benefited from the Tea Party, they’ve done NOTHING to GOTV...
Same as 2016 for me: not taking any polls seriously but I’m dead serious about showing up first thing in the morning Nov. 6 and voting for the red team.
The fake polls are intended to discourage campaign donations.
Who wants to donate to a loser?
My question - are federal elections still open and honest?
We see how much our DC elites, rig everything else. What remains clean?
They have a poll-model built for four key factors: (1) nothing being accomplished by GOP leadership, (2) a black President who says he’s going to resolve the black community issues, (3) a marginal commerce landscape and nothing much to be thrilled over the GDP, and then (4) a news media blindly trusted.
I would suggest that the model is basically broke. I might even go and suggest that they’ve never (in 200 years) had to deal with something like Trump. He’s like the good ‘Frankenstein’ that saves the village, prevents the dam from bursting, saves kids from the wolves, and paints portraits of faraway landscapes.
I see virtually no enthusiasm for voting on the Repub side here in NH and the Dems can't wait to get to the polls.
Other than Tax reform and regulation rollbacks, what do the Repubs have to offer is the attitudes i am seeing from people.
Turnout is everything, but i don't see it on the Repub side at all.
“the problem is the rats are chomping at the bit to vote..unlike 2010 and 2014 when the GOPe benefited from the Tea Party, they’ve done NOTHING to GOTV...” The real problem is that you are merely guess,
As I’ve said and backed up with hard numbers it is the Republicans who are enthusiastic not the Dems. In yesterday’s poll from Mo it was 45/41 Repubs In last weeks’ Wisconsin poll it was the Dems losing 9 points of enthusiasm and falling behind the Republicans for the first time. Facts, my friend, not feelings.
The press lies to us - - and they lie to themselves:
“Why Trump Will Never Make the Ballot” – The Daily Beast (8/20/2015)
“Relax, Donald Trump Can’t Win” – The Nation (6/21/2016)
“On Nov. 9, let’s pretend Donald Trump never happened” – Chicago Tribune (10/24/2016)
As the old saying goes – “the more things change, the more they stay the same” – so it seems with the predictions for President Trump’s failure now.
“Poll by sinking poll, Trump inches toward impeachment” – The Washington Post (8/31/2018)
“Poll finds Trump would lose in 2020 against literally any Democrat” – AOL (3/7/2018)
“No, impeachment will not crash the stock market” – Politico (8/23/2018)
“How Trump Lost Re-election in 2020” – The New York Times (7/29/2018)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3684806/posts
According to the latest McLaughlin national monthly generic poll published on 8/29/2018, a poll of likely voters, it is 44 R/44 D.
http://mclaughlinonline.com/2018/08/29/ma-poll-national-monthly-august/
Given the #WalkAway movement, and the 30+% support for Trump among Blacks, there is zero chance that the turnout models used by most polling organizations are anywhere near correct.
I think black turn out will be much higher in 2018 and 2020. However, they don’t be voting D.
Modern polling is built to direct, not to predict. The media realizes they drive opinion and are actively engaged in doing that daily.
Well, that’s NH. I’m not surprised.
We don't need to vote. We don't need enthusiasm.
We just need to look at the polls that say the Democrats are leading and then remind everyone that all the polls said Hillary was going to win too.
That's all! And then, like magic, red wave!
The polls are oversampled democRATS and thus show a preference for democRATS.
They are intended to drive public opinion, not reflect it.
I don’t agree with his premise of using the media as innocent participants in all of this. They are the pollsters and they are lying to us. Nobody is lying to them.
I get calls from political pollsters 2 - 3 times a week. I always lie to them.
If they are doing that again this time, that could affect some Senate and gubernatorial races.
But it's not likely to affect House races much, since African-Americans tend to be concentrated in House districts that are already held by the Democrats, districts Republicans won't win.
If the polls are wrong this time it would probably be because they overestimate opposition to Trump by suburban voters.
If they don't, they may be on target this time.
Not to be a smart ass but is your sampling based on who you talk to, what you see on TV or hear on the radio?
The narrative is Dems are ready to vote. It is true. If you look at the narrative on Kavanaugh, one would think there is no chance he gets in.......yet the opposite is almost 100% true.
We are coming up on a referendum on the direction of the country. Every indicator is the direction is spot on....and people are happy. They are not going to trade in a horse which is running so well.
The libtards don’t get more votes based on how many times they yell “shame” or some other stupid illogical chant they come up with. Those folks who really are undecided aren’t going to side with the children throwing a temper tantrum in aisle five. Throwing food is not the way to make friends and influence people.
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