Posted on 12/21/2016 1:17:20 PM PST by relictele
As we breathe a collective sigh of relief that would rival the wind speed of a Cat 5 hurricane and exult in the long-awaited political exile of the Clintons (and the Obamas), we must also countenance the long-term liabilities, in the literal and figurative senses, that are California and New York, with Illinois also blotting our copy book.
No one expects another 49-state sweep or anything approaching it, but California + New York is a punishing cover charge of 84 electoral votes before the music at any GOP victory party can begin. Illinois last went red in 1988 for George HW Bush and the former proud Land Of Lincoln is now the dysfunctional Obamaville run by his current and former cronies. Throw in its 20 EVs and the structural deficit at the beginning of any presidential campaign is 104 EVs, leaving a practical prize fund of just 434 EVs for any GOP candidate. Trump’s 306 EV total is a fantastic achievement given his unprecedented candidacy and canny, tireless campaign against his opponent and a horde of mudslingers posing as journalists. Another rehash of all the EV permutations is not necessary except to point out that his strong tally could have been undermined quickly by the loss of just two states - Pennsylvania and Louisiana, for example.
California continues to pursue a rigidly bifurcated Eloi/Morlock society at breakneck pace and is happy to allow even Morlocks to pour across the border to serve the Eloi even as the state’s so-called balanced budget manages to push the state billions more into debt and/or unfunded future liabilities.
New York is just as welcoming but the Morlocks, er, Mexicans aren’t exactly enamored with Rust Belt winters and NY is watching its native population flee the state.
But both are still media opinion-making strongholds. CA still has the Eureka! state motto and reputation and Silicon Valley to hold up as the epicenter of innovation (although such innovations are growing less frequent). NY, of course, is still the nation’s financial center. Their influence is outsized but still very real.
And then there’s Illinois. Like Obama, it pretends to be a cosmopolitan peer of the coastal areas but doesn’t have the necessary bankroll and tries to get by on ideological bluster. It’s traded its heritage of heavy industry and blue-collar culture for a welfare and bureaucratic state untethered from financial reality but always demanding more-more-more.
‘Calexit’ is a farce made even more laughable by the state’s dire finances. It has long been obvious that CA believes it can spend til doomsday at which point 49 other states will be expected to pay for its folly at the sole discretion of a Democrat president. It will make the GM bailout look like the tip jar at Starbucks.
Can these states ever be swung again? If not, what is the long-term financial and electoral prognosis for the union, assuming the financial and electoral considerations can be separated? Is even the strongest GOP candidate automatically condemned to starting 104 EVs in the hole?
Smells like a Vanity
Where is the Bonfire ?
Look at it this way, the more the leftists congregate in these states, the easier it becomes for us to win other states-- like Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan. Give them their 104 votes, give us the bulk of the remainder.
And why is Louisiana an example state - Were we not once again one of the more solidly Republican of States ?
California needs to be broken up into three states.
One along the coast, one North of the Tehachapis and west of the Sierra Madres from Mammoth Lakes up and the third south of the Tehachapis and east of the Sierra Madres from Mammoth Lakes down.
As these states become more and more hellish places to live, they will lose population. This is already happening in Illinois,
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3506858/posts and I suspect it is happening in New York as well.
At census time, reductions in population will result in reductions in congressional representation, and in the number of electoral votes.
This could be a problem that corrects itself, albeit, perhaps not as quickly as we’d like.
Excellent point.
The Dems have a similar problem - They also face a massive lockdown of electoral votes.
Once again, the fight was only over 10 swing States.
In 1988 Illinois EVs went to Bush.
I’m using the latter day conventional metaphor of Red=GOP and Blue=Dem.
Even though it was before I was born I prefer the old way of doing things where the GOP was blue and the Democrats were all Communist Red like they actually are.
Yes. That was back when states won by republicans were depicted by the color blue.
Before the MSM reversed the colors in an effort to keep us from associating democrat states with communism.
Has anyone yet done an analysis of how things would have turned out had there been universal apportioned EV like Maine and Nebraska? That would level the playing field but would have to be done at the state level and I doubt NY and CA would opt in.
Illinois seems reachable. All of the states around have gone red, solidly so in some cases (Iowa, Missouri, Indiana, and Kentucky) and strongly trending in the others (Wisconsin, Michigan), and Chicago is basically the poster child at this point for everything that’s wrong with Democrat rule.
As a born and raised Californian, I can confirm that winning state anytime soon is a lost cause, but might be more useful as a foil. The footage Trump got from a couple of visits out to California of liberal hysteria looking like a literal zombie apocalypse I think drove a lot of middle Americans into his camp. Roving bands of maniacs waving Mexican flags, burning American ones, and hunting down anyone who thinks differently like prey is not a good look for the home of progressive liberalism.
New York is interesting. Outside of NY metro, it seems to have be already going the way of neighboring and similar Pennsylvania and Michigan, the question is whether enough inroads can be made into the city to tip the balance statement. I think so, after all it wasn’t that long ago that Giuliani was ruling the roost there.
In sum, I think the GOP let California and Chicago turn into post children for liberalism run amok, then use those examples to turn everywhere else red.
Actually blue was always the color of the incumbent party... red the challenger. Until 2000
It “corrects” itself by moving those EVs to other states.The wealthy leftists run away from the hellish conditions they have created and move to other states where the taxes are low and the crime is low and the regulators don’t have an office by your front door. Theb Marsha says to her Significant Other over that morning cup of coffee, “You know, John, this place is almost perfect! now it just needs some more services...” and that state starts to descend into liberal hell.
Red = Revolution (Communiat)
Blue = Royalist (Conservative)
Black = Anarchist
I refuse to use the reversed colors that MSM imposed and that conservatives avidly accepted. The Soviets were not the Blue Menace and Mao did not preside over Blue China.
Illinois is not reachable so long as Chicago is Democrat controlled and that will not change. Chicago will provide the Democrat margin in any national or even statewide election. The Machine gets a call for the number of votes needed and provides them.
We are two nations within a set of borders. One third of the nation viscerally hates another third, and the last third is utterly clueless. Democrats will keep polarizing and sooner or later there will be violence.
The path to avoid this is to destroy the left. Ignore and marginalize the media, they are no longer needed and openly destructive. Reach out to blacks and erode democratic support in that community. Deport illegals and shut down immigration. Trump already began the appeal to union members, making leftist union leadership irrelevant.
This nation can only be saved by making the left a minority party.
Until the end of time I will argue this point:
Dems/Libs are RED
Restofus are BLUE
Liberal media gave us what is blindly-accepted.
The Union was blue; shoulda stayed that way.
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