Posted on 01/27/2016 1:39:19 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
The Ted Cruz campaign is a data-driven one, according to a National Review profile.
So his top advisers point to the books and scholarly articles of political scientists as tools that have guided the campaign's thinking during its 2016 presidential run. And one of those influencers happens to be James Campbell, UB Distinguished Professor of Political Science.
"I have been told by a few reporters that the Cruz campaign said my research had been very influential in devising their election strategy," says Campbell. "I was unaware of this, but it makes sense given the fact that my research on elections has been hitting the national media since the early 1990s."
The Cruz campaign has gleaned the most from Campbell's research that shows how important it is for candidates to keep their ideological bases happy, and that these bases cannot be taken for granted, a few reporters have been told by Cruz's top advisers....
(Excerpt) Read more at buffalo.edu ...
What if your ideological base is an ever-decreasing minority?
Or what if your ideological base is wrong?
What if a challenger to your ideological base does an entirely new, atypical campaign that wasn't present when you did your research on past campaigns?
Like they say about air travel, it may not be your time to go, but you'd better hope it isn't the pilot's time to go.
Conservatives are wrong? Do you know what site you’re on?
In at least one example, if your base only defines "seating" as 90% chairs, but some people say 60% chairs plus sofas, bleachers and stools should be valid, you have a fuzzy statistic.
Hence the old saying, "there are lies, damned lies, and statistics."
In commenting on the statistical model, I am pointing out that most stat models have to work with past behaviors, but in this race, the challenger is atypical and may defy statistically derived expectations.
“The Ted Cruz campaign is a data-driven one, according to a National Review profile.”
That’s nice.
“...What if your ideological base is an ever-decreasing minority? Or what if your ideological base is wrong?...”
Conservatives?
I would assume so.
That indicates to me that Cruz is altering his public persona based on what he perceives will be advantageous to his campaign.
“That indicates to me that Cruz is altering his public persona based on what he perceives will be advantageous to his campaign.”
I’m very disappointed in Ted Cruz. He should have stuck to espousing his own wonderfulness and not been distracted into a skunk pissing contest with Trump.
Cruz is still a young man and would have been better off quite some time ago to write this particular election off and focus on positive actions towards the future like espousing the horrors of Hillary and Obama by attacking them relentlessly. He should have stayed away from attacking trump (which has been repeatedly shown by everyone who tried it that it’s a no-win situation for anyone but trump), but instead make himself a silent and useful partner of trump, join and/or support the trump administration at some high level, gain broader experience, become more mature, and look forward to the future as a wiser and more powerful man.
Agreed. Cruz has made some foolish tactical decisions recently. He might have been chosen to be VP by Trump, but that is less and less likely to happen as this campaign season advances.
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