What if your ideological base is an ever-decreasing minority?
Or what if your ideological base is wrong?
What if a challenger to your ideological base does an entirely new, atypical campaign that wasn't present when you did your research on past campaigns?
Like they say about air travel, it may not be your time to go, but you'd better hope it isn't the pilot's time to go.
“The Ted Cruz campaign is a data-driven one, according to a National Review profile.”
That’s nice.