Another Phony Payroll Jobs Number — Paul Craig Roberts

Paul Craig Roberts Institute for Political Economy ^ | 06 November 2015 | Paul Craig Roberts

[Lorianne]

The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced today that the US economy created 271,000 jobs in October, a number substantially in excess of the expected 175,000 to 190,000 jobs. The unexpected job gain has dropped the unemployment rate to 5 percent. These two numbers will be the focus of the financial media presstitutes.

What is wrong with these numbers? Just about everything. First of all, 145,000 of the jobs, or 54%, are jobs arbitrarily added to the number by the birth-death model. The birth-death model provides an estimate of the net amount of unreported jobs lost to business closings and the unreported jobs created by new business openings. The model is based on a normally functioning economy unlike the one of the past seven years and thus overestimates the number of jobs from new business and underestimates the losses from closures. If we eliminate the birth-death model’s contribution, new jobs were 126,000.

Next, consider who got the 271,000 reported jobs. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, all of the new jobs plus some—378,000—went to those 55 years of age and older. However, males in the prime working age, 25 to 54 years of age, lost 119,000 jobs. What seems to have happened is that full time jobs were replaced with part time jobs for retirees. Multiple job holders increased by 109,000 in October, an indication that people who lost full time jobs had to take two or more part time jobs in order to make ends meet.

[Lorianne]

And of course a person with 2 part-time jobs ... those jobs are counted as 2 jobs period, no distinction.

So if we all would work 2 or more part-time jobs the economy would be booming! Unemployment would be 0% (except for those who could not find a job)

[TwelveOfTwenty]

So who are we going to believe, the administration or our lying eyes?

[butlerweave]

Even Goose Stepping Democrats are not believing Obama’s crap anymore

[Mastador1]

Hey, maybe what they’re doing is counting every freakin illegal they brought in, including the children, as government employees! That’s the only friggin way I can see that they come up with these numbers.

[Soul of the South]

“So who are we going to believe, the administration or our lying eyes?”

James Carville brilliantly focused Bill Clinton’s first campaign on the issue of the economy. Even though the economy was recovering from a brief slump, pounding the message of the “worst economy since the Great Depression”, helped Bill Clinton beat the incumbent president George H.W. Bush.

Since Obama’s election we have truly experienced the worst economy since the Great Depression. Yet I don’t see the GOP singularly focused on reminding the American people of what they see every day. Romney certainly didn’t slam the message home in the 2012 campaign. Trump talks about it some, but none of the candidates nor the Congressional leaders seem to want to place the blame personally on Obama and the Democrats. As a result he not only gets a pass, he constantly claims credit for a recover that doesn’t exist.

The administration has clearly falsified the unemployment and inflation numbers throughout its two terms. Why don’t the Republicans pass a bill requiring the statistics to be reported as were historically reported? Not including food prices in the inflation rate is insanity. Arbitrarily assuming millions of jobless people aren’t in the labor force for the calculation of the unemployment rate is an extreme distortion of reality that only serves political purposes.

It is the job of the opposition party to remind the voters of their economic misery and point out who is responsible. The opposition party remaining silent lets the administration herald bad news as good news every month. What are McConnell and Ryan doing other than partying with lobbyists? If the shoe were on the other foot, Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi would be on every television news show rightly claiming the administration was cooking the books.

[wally_bert]

I know plenty that will believe anything they are told as long as it is from wun and fellow travelers in charge.

[1rudeboy]

PCR is back!

[Don Corleone]

Actual unemployment is more in the neighborhood of 22 percent. That’s a crappy and depressed neighborhood. If it wasn’t for the freebies being paid for by the people actually working there would be ongoing riots.

[null and void]

[Vermont Lt]

the “worst economy since the Great Depression”, helped Bill Clinton beat the incumbent president George H.W. Bush.

---

I have to laugh at the pundits and media these days. Everything needs to be “qualified” as a superlative. Nothing can be average.

Even an average recession sucks. I don’t see a need to make it “the worst” in forty years, “the best in ten years”....

People who have lost the ability to think for themselves must be like mice in a cage where every wall is electrified randomly. After a while they just curl up in a ball and die.

People have lost all sense of contact. I we needed to act like the country in the 1940’s most people would be lost. Just completely overwhelmed.

[CapnJack]

“Even Goose Stepping Democrats are not believing Obama’s crap anymore”

Oh yes they are. Or at the very very least they would never admit it.

Remember ... liberalism is truly a mental disorder consisting of disassociation of reality.

[phormer phrog phlyer]

This government excels at Iieing.

[joshua c]

False:
The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced today that the US economy created 271,000 jobs in October

True:
The Bureau of Labor Statistics created 271,000 jobs in October.

[napscoordinator]

True or not. That 5 percent unemployment number is going to kill us. We know it isn’t true but most voters are stupid and when they add on all the Help Wanted signs all over the place....they certainly are here and well you know the populous will be believing it.

[Mase]

PCR and that guy from Shadowstats: Still crazy after all these years. I see he’s no longer with economicalert.org, fwiw.

[napscoordinator]

Nope. Bush lost because of “No new taxes” and nothing more. He caused his own demise.

[expat_panama]

Funny old PCR, I bet he really misses the days when he could shoot his mouth off and nobody would check things. 

jobs are essentially Third World type of jobs that do not produce sufficient income

We were just talking about this on another thread and the fact is that wages are up.

people who lost full time jobs had to take two or more part time jobs

That used to be true but not any more.  There had been a big surge but the % part time is back down to average levels.

not a single one is in manufacturing

As is someone w/ a wrench can make more money than an engineer --at any rate even though we had a big dip w/ the recession, over the past 5 years we've added 800K manufacturing jobs and it's still climbing.

the labor force participation rate remains at a low point

That part's true sort of.  OK, so the LFPR is down where it was in the '70's but at the same time the total not-employed population shot up 5 years ago, it's stopped climbing even thought he total population's been growing steady.  Let's face it, PCR been having a bad run for say 4 deecades.  Also, even though we hate the Dem's econ track record we never want to underestimate the power of America's ability to create wealth in difficult times.