Posted on 11/08/2012 12:59:00 PM PST by EricTheRed_VocalMinority
(This post is very numbers-heavy but bear with me and get through it. I guarantee it will be worth it.)
... In the end, the news was bad for us.
Did more Democrats vote for Obama than Romney? Yes.
Did Obama win virtually every swing state? Yes.
Did Obama trounce Romney in the electoral college? Yes.
Did Obama overwhelmingly get the overwhelming majority of blacks, Hispanics, and the youth vote -- especially single women? Hell, yes.
Did over 2.0 million fewer people vote Republican in 2012 than in 2008. Yes.
All these facts about the election have led many pundits to conclude our populace is trending precipitously Democratic, that we are no longer the "center-right" nation we used to be.
However, I'd like to propose that this is not necessarily the case. And here's why:
While the Republican lever was pulled by 2.0 million fewer people than in 2008, Obama's vote count from 2008 decreased by over 8.6 million. Put in percentage terms, the Republican vote decreased by 3.4% from four years ago. The Obama vote decreased 12.5%. That means one-eighth of Obama's 2008 voters rejected Hope and Change this time around. That is, in my opinion, a significant drop and a genuine rejection of Obama's policies, regardless of the fact that Obama beat Romney anyway.
In addition, the gap by which Obama beat Romney is significantly less than John McCain. In 2008 he beat McCain nearly 9.5 million votes. He beat Romney by only 2.0 million. (Yes, I can complain about the 2.0 million Republican voters from 2008 who for whatever reason couldn't bring themselves to vote for Romney, but that's another topic for another post.) And this is what gives me hope for the future.
My argument becomes stronger when you look at the individual states and the District of Columbia. Compared side by side here are the observations:
RED STATES
Arizona: Obama got 741 thousand votes, compared to 1.03 million in 2008, a 28.3% decrease.
Kentucky: Obama got 679 thousand votes, compared to 752 thousand in 2008, a 16.9% decrease.
Utah (where Mia Love unfortanetly lost her Congressional bid): Obama got 229 thousand votes, compared to 327 thousand in 2008, an entire 30.0% decrease. By contrast, Romney got 12.7% more votes than McCain.
West Virginia: Obama got 679 thousand votes, compared to 752 thousand in 2008, a 16.9% decrease.
BLUE STATES
California: Obama got 5.58 million votes, compared to 8.27 million in 2008, a 32.5% decrease! Unfortunately, Romney got 27.3% fewer votes than McCain (the largest percentage loss for Republicans than in any other state other than Alaska), which means that a staggering 4 million fewer Californians voted in 2012 than in 2008.
District of Columbia: Obama got 222 thousand votes, compared to 246 thousand, a 9.5% decrease.
Hawaii: Obama got 303 thousand votes, compared to 326 thousand in 2008, a 7.0% decrease.
Illinois: With 99.7% reporting at this writing, Obama has 2.92 million votes, compared to 3.42 in 2008, a 14.7% decrease.
New Jersey: With 98.9% reporting at this writing, Obama has 1.93 million votes, compared to 2.21 million in 2008, a 12.8% decrease.
Pennsylvania: With 99.7% reporting at this writing, Obama has 2.91 million votes, compared to 3.27 million in 2008, a 11.3% decrease. By contrast, Romney has 2.61 million votes, compared to McCain's 2.65 million, only a 1.4% decrease.
BATTLEGROUND STATES
Indiana: With 99.8% reporting at this writing, Obama has 1.13 million votes, compared to 1.37 million in 2008, a 17.3% decrease.
Missouri (where Dem Claire McCaskill trounced Republican Todd foot-in-mouth Akin): Obama got 1.21 million votes, compared to 1.44 in 2008, a 15.7% decrease.
Ohio: Obama got 2.68 million votes, compared to 2.93 million in 2008, an 8.4% decrease.
it’s trending moderate as always.
Though from when, from 2004 to 2012, 5 million R-votes stay home...then a loss is inevitable.
Slightly less intensity for Obama... but we are definitely not a “center-right” country anymore. A nation that elects, then.. staring in the face of a horrendous job performance.. reelects him doesn’t qualify as “center-right.”
We’re center-left now. There’s no denying it...
Though when (from 2004 to 2012) 5 million R-votes stay home...then a loss is inevitable.
Put this on a bumper sticker for us math dummies.
It’s trending taker, not maker.
47% and growing on on some type of gov dole. That percent will go above 50% with four more years of Obama.
Decades of open borders, out of control spending, grand bargains by both sides have created a taker society.
Hey Bozo, you narcissistic a-hole who thinks everyone loves you, almost 58,000,000 Americans voted against you!! The majority of which hate your stinking guts!! It was not enough to overcome your MFing media and whatever voter fraud you perpetrated, but make no mistake a LOT of Americans are on to you and your ilk!!
oops! I meant to also add: ...and we are not going away!!
First of all, I noticed some data typos for what it’s worth:
Kentucky: Obama got 679 thousand votes, compared to 752 thousand in 2008, a 9.6% decrease.
West Virginia: Obama got 235 thousand votes, compared to 304 thousand in 2008, a 22.7% decrease.
@Knarf - Fair enough. Here’s the bumper sticker version: While Obama beat Romney, he beat him with 9.5 million FEWER votes than he received in 2008 and by a significantly SMALLER margin than he beat McCain in 2008. THIS is why I argue the leftward movement of the electorate is not as extreme as it seems and may not even be happening at all.
Put this on a bumper sticker for us math dummies.
Not much more complicated than that. There are, of course, lots of other factors - but in the end this country has probably crossed the tipping point and is now much more like a Western European welfare state. All the things that apply to that will be seen here. We'll likely have chronically high unemployment, slow growth, a complete inability to cut anything, etc.
We may be able to save ourselves, but the Republican party is going to have to a vastly better job of, at minimum, of reaching persuadable voters in the minority community (Hispanic, Asian) and figure out a way to win over the rust belt and perhaps states like Oregon and NH in order to offset our increasing inability to win high minority states like VA and soon NC.
oops ... don’t go to the bathroom without refreshing your reply first ...
For example, the Hurricane Sandy coverage focused on Obama and ignored Romney. Obama acted "presidential" for the first time ever and the MSM employees swooned. Some exit-polling did show that made up minds to vote for Obama. Chris Matthews even said that he was glad the hurricane happened.. someone on the right saying a stupid think like that would be fired. But it helped Obama so no harm no foul -- except from the foul odor of the dead killed by the hurricane.
Denial isn’t a river in Egypt.
I respectfully disagree.
As one old enough to remember prayer in public schools, a 4% illegitimate birth rate (41% in 2011), abortion illegal except in case of mother’s health, communists/socialists were pariah’s in US, never even HEARD of redistribution of wealth, gays were in closet, NO ONE cohabited outside of marriage, socialized medicine overwhelmingly rejected, no ‘Great Society’ spending, the US was the industrial wonder of the world, I can assure you that the US is far left from where she was.
We have come to accept the new ‘middle’, which is far left of the old left, as if things have always been this way. Even the standard shifts.
“I do not believe our country is trending significantly leftward”
He’s insane.
We’ll never win over Hispanics and Asians so long as mass immigration continues. If we cut off mass immigration like we did in the 1920s, then over time they might start going our way in significant numbers, but as long as the gates are open it’s not going to happen. It’ll only get worse.
Unless of course the GOP moves left, and not just on immigration, but on a lot of other things too.
I don’t know how you overcome a 47% and GROWING taker society.
How do you undo decades of “Grand Bargains”, out of control spending
and open borders these DC Hacks on both sides have brought us.
I also posit that we WAY over estimate how many people actually think much at all about politics, or what actually is going on. So trying to assign meaning to people who are increasingly getting lost in the Facebook/Twitter/Entertainment/Sports Matrix style bubble and just make a snap decision based on a few words is silly.
And THAT even goes for a lot of people who vote on the Right. Some of the reasons people have for voting, either side, just blow my mind.
There are, relatively, VERY few people who vote out of reasoned political view.
There is a reason political campaigns are as shallow as a puddle of water.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.