Skip to comments.I Do NOT Believe Our Country Is Trending Significantly Leftward and Here's Why
Posted on 11/08/2012 12:59:00 PM PST by EricTheRed_VocalMinority
(This post is very numbers-heavy but bear with me and get through it. I guarantee it will be worth it.)
... In the end, the news was bad for us.
Did more Democrats vote for Obama than Romney? Yes.
Did Obama win virtually every swing state? Yes.
Did Obama trounce Romney in the electoral college? Yes.
Did Obama overwhelmingly get the overwhelming majority of blacks, Hispanics, and the youth vote -- especially single women? Hell, yes.
Did over 2.0 million fewer people vote Republican in 2012 than in 2008. Yes.
All these facts about the election have led many pundits to conclude our populace is trending precipitously Democratic, that we are no longer the "center-right" nation we used to be.
However, I'd like to propose that this is not necessarily the case. And here's why:
While the Republican lever was pulled by 2.0 million fewer people than in 2008, Obama's vote count from 2008 decreased by over 8.6 million. Put in percentage terms, the Republican vote decreased by 3.4% from four years ago. The Obama vote decreased 12.5%. That means one-eighth of Obama's 2008 voters rejected Hope and Change this time around. That is, in my opinion, a significant drop and a genuine rejection of Obama's policies, regardless of the fact that Obama beat Romney anyway.
In addition, the gap by which Obama beat Romney is significantly less than John McCain. In 2008 he beat McCain nearly 9.5 million votes. He beat Romney by only 2.0 million. (Yes, I can complain about the 2.0 million Republican voters from 2008 who for whatever reason couldn't bring themselves to vote for Romney, but that's another topic for another post.) And this is what gives me hope for the future.
My argument becomes stronger when you look at the individual states and the District of Columbia. Compared side by side here are the observations:
Arizona: Obama got 741 thousand votes, compared to 1.03 million in 2008, a 28.3% decrease.
Kentucky: Obama got 679 thousand votes, compared to 752 thousand in 2008, a 16.9% decrease.
Utah (where Mia Love unfortanetly lost her Congressional bid): Obama got 229 thousand votes, compared to 327 thousand in 2008, an entire 30.0% decrease. By contrast, Romney got 12.7% more votes than McCain.
West Virginia: Obama got 679 thousand votes, compared to 752 thousand in 2008, a 16.9% decrease.
California: Obama got 5.58 million votes, compared to 8.27 million in 2008, a 32.5% decrease! Unfortunately, Romney got 27.3% fewer votes than McCain (the largest percentage loss for Republicans than in any other state other than Alaska), which means that a staggering 4 million fewer Californians voted in 2012 than in 2008.
District of Columbia: Obama got 222 thousand votes, compared to 246 thousand, a 9.5% decrease.
Hawaii: Obama got 303 thousand votes, compared to 326 thousand in 2008, a 7.0% decrease.
Illinois: With 99.7% reporting at this writing, Obama has 2.92 million votes, compared to 3.42 in 2008, a 14.7% decrease.
New Jersey: With 98.9% reporting at this writing, Obama has 1.93 million votes, compared to 2.21 million in 2008, a 12.8% decrease.
Pennsylvania: With 99.7% reporting at this writing, Obama has 2.91 million votes, compared to 3.27 million in 2008, a 11.3% decrease. By contrast, Romney has 2.61 million votes, compared to McCain's 2.65 million, only a 1.4% decrease.
Indiana: With 99.8% reporting at this writing, Obama has 1.13 million votes, compared to 1.37 million in 2008, a 17.3% decrease.
Missouri (where Dem Claire McCaskill trounced Republican Todd foot-in-mouth Akin): Obama got 1.21 million votes, compared to 1.44 in 2008, a 15.7% decrease.
Ohio: Obama got 2.68 million votes, compared to 2.93 million in 2008, an 8.4% decrease.
it’s trending moderate as always.
Though from when, from 2004 to 2012, 5 million R-votes stay home...then a loss is inevitable.
Slightly less intensity for Obama... but we are definitely not a “center-right” country anymore. A nation that elects, then.. staring in the face of a horrendous job performance.. reelects him doesn’t qualify as “center-right.”
We’re center-left now. There’s no denying it...
Though when (from 2004 to 2012) 5 million R-votes stay home...then a loss is inevitable.
Put this on a bumper sticker for us math dummies.
It’s trending taker, not maker.
47% and growing on on some type of gov dole. That percent will go above 50% with four more years of Obama.
Decades of open borders, out of control spending, grand bargains by both sides have created a taker society.
Hey Bozo, you narcissistic a-hole who thinks everyone loves you, almost 58,000,000 Americans voted against you!! The majority of which hate your stinking guts!! It was not enough to overcome your MFing media and whatever voter fraud you perpetrated, but make no mistake a LOT of Americans are on to you and your ilk!!
oops! I meant to also add: ...and we are not going away!!
First of all, I noticed some data typos for what it’s worth:
Kentucky: Obama got 679 thousand votes, compared to 752 thousand in 2008, a 9.6% decrease.
West Virginia: Obama got 235 thousand votes, compared to 304 thousand in 2008, a 22.7% decrease.
@Knarf - Fair enough. Here’s the bumper sticker version: While Obama beat Romney, he beat him with 9.5 million FEWER votes than he received in 2008 and by a significantly SMALLER margin than he beat McCain in 2008. THIS is why I argue the leftward movement of the electorate is not as extreme as it seems and may not even be happening at all.
Put this on a bumper sticker for us math dummies.
Not much more complicated than that. There are, of course, lots of other factors - but in the end this country has probably crossed the tipping point and is now much more like a Western European welfare state. All the things that apply to that will be seen here. We'll likely have chronically high unemployment, slow growth, a complete inability to cut anything, etc.
We may be able to save ourselves, but the Republican party is going to have to a vastly better job of, at minimum, of reaching persuadable voters in the minority community (Hispanic, Asian) and figure out a way to win over the rust belt and perhaps states like Oregon and NH in order to offset our increasing inability to win high minority states like VA and soon NC.
oops ... don’t go to the bathroom without refreshing your reply first ...
For example, the Hurricane Sandy coverage focused on Obama and ignored Romney. Obama acted "presidential" for the first time ever and the MSM employees swooned. Some exit-polling did show that made up minds to vote for Obama. Chris Matthews even said that he was glad the hurricane happened.. someone on the right saying a stupid think like that would be fired. But it helped Obama so no harm no foul -- except from the foul odor of the dead killed by the hurricane.
Denial isn’t a river in Egypt.
I respectfully disagree.
As one old enough to remember prayer in public schools, a 4% illegitimate birth rate (41% in 2011), abortion illegal except in case of mother’s health, communists/socialists were pariah’s in US, never even HEARD of redistribution of wealth, gays were in closet, NO ONE cohabited outside of marriage, socialized medicine overwhelmingly rejected, no ‘Great Society’ spending, the US was the industrial wonder of the world, I can assure you that the US is far left from where she was.
We have come to accept the new ‘middle’, which is far left of the old left, as if things have always been this way. Even the standard shifts.
“I do not believe our country is trending significantly leftward”
We’ll never win over Hispanics and Asians so long as mass immigration continues. If we cut off mass immigration like we did in the 1920s, then over time they might start going our way in significant numbers, but as long as the gates are open it’s not going to happen. It’ll only get worse.
Unless of course the GOP moves left, and not just on immigration, but on a lot of other things too.
I don’t know how you overcome a 47% and GROWING taker society.
How do you undo decades of “Grand Bargains”, out of control spending
and open borders these DC Hacks on both sides have brought us.
I also posit that we WAY over estimate how many people actually think much at all about politics, or what actually is going on. So trying to assign meaning to people who are increasingly getting lost in the Facebook/Twitter/Entertainment/Sports Matrix style bubble and just make a snap decision based on a few words is silly.
And THAT even goes for a lot of people who vote on the Right. Some of the reasons people have for voting, either side, just blow my mind.
There are, relatively, VERY few people who vote out of reasoned political view.
There is a reason political campaigns are as shallow as a puddle of water.
We used to do fine with the asian vote as recently as 12 years ago. It used to be a Republican leaning voting block. Now it is voting Democrat at an even higher rate than Hispanics. Democrats reach out to these voters, they've learned how to talk to them - and what not to say to avoid alienating them. We need to do a much better job of this.
Cutting off immigration is not going to happen. The Democrats will never allow that because they know we are importing more Democrat voters. We either learn how to reach these people and get them to vote for us, or the demographic problem is only going to accelerate. We really aren't going to be able to even win Texas in 10-20 years or less.
By becoming a member of a radical giving society, or as CS Lewis put it:
"Do not waste time bothering whether you ʿloveʾ your neighbour; act as if you did. As soon as we do this we find one of the great secrets. When you are behaving as if you loved someone, you will presently come to love him."
~ Mere Christianity
How do you undo decades of Grand Bargains, out of control spending
How do you change someone? If you show them real love, do you think they will stay as they are?
The one thing the liberals do not offer is love, if you fall out of step with them their approval is vanished -- indeed, our society is in desperate need of real love.
Immaterial. The unopposed leadership of this nation is as hard left as, well, Bill Ayres.
Some elections bring massive turnout, drawing in many people who usually don't vote. While one candidate benefits most, the opponent's total also goes up. Later elections can't match that enthusiasm and the high vote count.
For example, if I'm not mistaken, Richard Nixon got more votes in 1960 when he lost than in 1968 when he won (a third party candidate may also have been a factor, though).
So yes, 2012 doesn't mark any kind of progressive surge. But the lack of enthusiasm is more general than confined to one party.
The white birth-rate in the US is flat and will remain so in the face of an economic recession/depression, falling home values, increasing cost of a college education, increasing taxation etc. Meanwhile, the muslim, hispanic and black birth-rates are sky-rocketing and will increase as more and more are added to the welfare roles as victims. Victims vote DemonRat, not GOP or Conservative.
You're wrong. It's as simple as that. The Grand Old Party is DOA. The party is over. And I will give you a few other 'Predictions' for the next four years. I may be wrong on some, but we'll see.
1. Gun confiscation.
2. Climate change taxation on carbon-derived energy sources and use.
3. New leftists appointed to SC. I assume they will be marxists.
4. 2016 National elections will be cancelled by Executive Order.
5. Israel will be eradicated by Iran.
6. US will enter a depression.
7. DemonRats will win back the House in 2014 giving them complete control over all branches of government.
8. Obama will approve amnesty for all illegals.
9. Obama will establish Open Borders.
10. Whites will be denied healthcare options in favor of minorities.
11. Obama will confiscate your retirement savings.
12. Elements of Sharia Law will be incorporated into U.S. law.
I could go on, but my fingers are bleeding.
Like I said, no personal offense meant.
You are correct. The problem is elsewhere. Most of the electorate who vote these Communists into power leads conservative lives, and yet. They are uninformed, misinformed, easily swayed by arguments of “goodness”, prejudiced against business, and generally clueless simpletons. This is the electorate that Romney was trying to win over with his childish arguments, because they wouldn’t comprehend adult talk. Evening news, Dancing with the American Idol, Judge Judy, Hollywood movies, treat them as children, or perhaps mentally disabled adults. I don’t think that all who voted for Romney are much different from the crowd of TV addicted idiots out there.
Oh I agree the Democrats won’t allow an end to mass immigration. Of course, there have been times where the Republicans had the power to end it themselves, but were too stupid or cowardly to do so.
I also agree about Texas, though I don’t think it will be as bad as California, at least not for many years. What has made Texas so Republican is that the GOP routinely wins over 70% of the white vote there. Now that still equals domaninance and landslide in Texas. In another cycle or so it will probably change to simply leaning Republican. Then it will be a battleground state. Then it will be lights out for Republicans as a national contender.
Maybe we were doing fine with Asians 12 years ago, but I think the first President Bush was the last Republican to carry the Asian vote, and I think that was 1988. They’ve been voting Democrat since Clinton. We could argue about the reasons. Some might say it’s the GOP going ‘harsh’ on immigration since then (of course, if that were really true, then they wouldn’t have sabotaged the last real effort to cut immigration in the mid 90s when they had Democrat backing to do so with the Jordan Commission, not that it would have been harsh to do so). I would say their move to the left started right when immigration of Asians really took off and their numbers began to grow, and I would argue that it wasn’t a coincidence.
I think mass immigration reinforces pretty much every dynamic that causes immigrants to vote Democrat in the first place. So I really don’t see a way out now. It would take something drastic I’m afraid, to bring Democrats and Republicans together to end mass immigration, and I don’t even want to imagine what that would have to be.
Personally, I feel like the whole election charade was a sham, a set up nomination for another unelectable GoP guy. The racist leninist in the white house never felt in any danger of losing the election because the communist machine had it rigged from the beginning, and the mass media (”fourth estate, now the fifth column”) together with corrupted primary system and whacked out Republican leadership nominated an unelectable leftist for the GoP to run against the thuggish nationalist socialist machine.
Who can possibly be elected four years from now and repair the additional damage another 4 years of these monsters will do? Nobody can fix this mess, and it is going to get much, much worse.
Hitler’s fascists nationalist socialist party won the election in 1933 in Germany. Then there was the Reichstag fire.
Winning an election is not a good thing for bad people. The “Progressives” are bad people and are dismantling the American republic from the inside. The latest American national “election” of president looked strikingly like elections for dictator Omar Bongo in Gabon, in some locations polling almost 100% of the vote. Be assured, the “enemies” of the election winner, those who voted against him, will be “punished”, he already promised that ahead of time.
We have marxist communists running the USA. Congress means nothing, and does nothing, except enrich its own members, trade favors with corrupt lobbyists, and spend more than they tax by a factor of 1.4 or more. Who knows where all that money is going. The rule of law is for all practical purposes gone, certainly from the notion of enforcement at the fed-gov level, courts are corrupt all the way to the SC, and the economy is kaput, employment levels lower than in the great depression, triple deficits, unsustainable 16 trillion in real debt, etc. The military is co-opted and was forced to stand down while a US ambassador and former Navy Seals were murdered, while the administration leadership watched from a drone overhead. Iran attacks American aircraft flying in international airspace and the American people are not told about it. This is a tyrannical regime.
The first republic is over. Just look at Fast and Furious, Arab Spring, Benghazi massacre, immigration amnesty by decree - our country is run by presidential decree like some African banana republic. Wealth redistribution has been mandated now on multiple occasions, by voters, by leadership, and by congress. First and Second amendment rights are routinely violated. America is becoming a tin pot communist dictatorship. There are too many egregious matters of government misconduct to mention. There have been 50 MILLION ABORTED BABIES in America, and the government wants more of that to happen. God cannot possibly be happy about such matters - traditional values of freedom, life and marriage are no longer mainstream American values.
The question to me is, will there be civil war veterans in the USA in my lifetime, or not? Will people fight for freedom and liberty, or run away? How can this tyranny be stopped?
9-11 could have been that moment. I always wonder, what if... 9-11 could have been our reason to lock down and secure the border with the military, and once done it might have been hard for the Democrats to undo it. Unfortunately we had another Bush in charge and he didn't believe in it. After 9-11 Bush had a free hand for a year or and he did not use that time the way the Democrats would have. A lot of common sense conservative ideas on security and immigration would have been popular with the public at that moment in time, but Bush blew the opportunity.
I think in the past we were winning the Asian vote because Republicans were perceived as tough on the communists. We had a lot of Koreans and Vietnamese that supported a hawkish position on foreign and defense policies - much like the Cubans. Sadly now, they just seem to want free stuff like everyone else.
Bottom line is, demographics are changing rapidly. We have to be able to at least talk in a way that doesn't alienate these groups. Look, we aren't talking about sacrificing principles here. I don't believe caving on immigration is going to make them like us. But good grief, we've got to at least not be poison to these people. Lets at least avoid associating ourselves with the Tom Tancredo's of the world. He talks about illegals as if they were a pestilence. Privately I kind of agree, but you just can't talk like that because the legal Hispanics hear that stuff and get the impression that conservatives don't like them as a people.
The thing about Tancredo, though, is that his views are actually very mainstream and popular for the most part. Take legal immigration; Tancredo wants to reduce it, and while I haven’t seen any recent polling on this, usually a majority or plurality of Americans agree with that sentiment. On the other hand, support for increasing legal immigration would always poll in a very distant third behind reducing or maintaining current levels. Yet elites on both sides of the partisan divide favor greatly increasing legal immigration. They hold the extreme, out-of-the-mainstream view, but it is never treated as such. It’s very frustrating and disheartening that they get away with this, but when the media is on their side and when the GOP has refused to engage on this aspect of the issue, then it’s really no surprise I guess.
As for illegal immigration; well it really depends on how the question is framed. I’ve seen polls showing majority support for giving illegal aliens a path to citizenship. I’ve also seen polls showing a majority in support of the attrition-through-enforcement approach. So it’s very unclear how exactly most Americans would like to deal with illegals.
But maybe Tancredo is a bad messenger. I’d say he’s been unfairly demonized, but that’s beside the point now. What I wonder is if it is possible for anyone to champion the mainstream views expressed above (reduce legal immigration and attrition-through-enforcement) w/o being demonized? Even if one took great care to avoid any harsh rhetoric, I have no doubt they’d still be viciously and falsely pilloried and demonized. I don’t
The left will always attempt to demonize, no doubt about it. However, if one speaks about these issues in a way that comes across as compassionate and caring of the Hispanic community then much of the demagoguing can be mitigated.
Remember the left is perfectly willing to lose on these immigration issues in the short run. Think of Pete Wilson in California. His initiatives to reign in spending on services to illegals was very popular at the time. Unfortunately they poisoned the well with Hispanics that were here legally. We completely lost California from that time forward.
Caving on Immigration is not going to make Hispanics like us. The truth is most of them simply want more free stuff and vote for the party that promises it to them. Still, we can at least do the simple things like talk about the Hispanic community in a way that isn't offensive. Identify politics works. I hate that it does, but it is what it is. Hispanics aren't going to vote for a party they perceive dislikes them and wishes they'd go back to Mexico (or whatever country they are originally from).
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