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How to Be the First to Know Who’s Winning Tonight
Preaching to the Choir ^ | 11/6/12 | Rick Hatch

Posted on 11/06/2012 3:51:44 PM PST by Stat Man

The “experts” will tell you that the swing states will decide the winner of tonight’s election.

And that’s certainly true.

But don’t make the easy mistake of following their faulty logic that since the swing states will decide the winner, results in other states are irrelevant.

In fact, results in other states can tell us early whether or not the polls this year are accurate, as liberals hope, or skewed with oversampling of Democrats as many conservative pundits believe. Tonight I’ll be using a spreadsheet where I’ve entered the “tipping point” for each state, as a value between -77.8 (District of Columbia) and 41.2 (Utah), representing the percentage margin Romney would be expected to be ahead (positive values) or behind (negative values) Obama in each state, if the election was a dead heat.

As results come in, if Romney is significantly outperforming these numbers, I’ll know he’ll probably win the election. If the current polls are right, Romney will be underperforming these numbers by a couple percentage points, and I’ll know Obama will probably win. If the race breaks either way and isn’t “too close to call”, I suspect I might be able to predict that a bit earlier than the media will be willing to do, because they will rely solely on swing state returns.

If the race remains “too close to call”, ...

So how can you play along at home? ...

(Excerpt) Read more at choirpreacher.blogspot.com ...


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: 2012elections
This looks interesting and not that hard for a stat guy like me. I think maybe I'll try making the spreadsheet.
1 posted on 11/06/2012 3:51:48 PM PST by Stat Man
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To: Stat Man; Torie

Just listen to Michael Barone. He’s a walking talking political encyclopedia when it comes to precincts, counties and states. The guy knows his crap. We used to have a guy li8kie that here. One Torie. Kinda miss that ole moderate and his spreadsheets.


2 posted on 11/06/2012 3:56:07 PM PST by jwalsh07
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To: Stat Man
http://www.politico.com/2012-election/results/president/indiana/ ~ Indiana, as usual, reports early ~ and this line up so far is entertaining if nothing ~ Romney is getting 60% pretty much across the board and Obama is down there at 40%.

4 years ago Obama did much better ~

3 posted on 11/06/2012 3:58:41 PM PST by muawiyah
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To: Stat Man

If I hadn’t spent the last 10 hours looking at spreadsheets I’d do this:-)


4 posted on 11/06/2012 3:59:10 PM PST by Chipper (You can't kill an Obamazombie by destroying the brain...they didn't have one to begin with.)
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To: jwalsh07

Where is Barone? Does he have a website, or should we just check Fox or such?


5 posted on 11/06/2012 4:00:16 PM PST by I still care (I miss my friends, bagels, and the NYC skyline - but not the taxes. I love the South.)
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To: Stat Man

Vigo County Indiana (Terre Haute) has predicted winner of the election since 1956. Right now nearly 70% vote in and Romney leading 50-48. Went 57% for O in 2008. Also Virginia closing polls in a few minutes.


6 posted on 11/06/2012 4:01:21 PM PST by NoobRep
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To: Stat Man

>> Tonight I’ll be using a spreadsheet where I’ve entered the “tipping point” for each state, as a value between -77.8 (District of Columbia) and 41.2 (Utah), bla bla bla &etc

I’ll bet that besides being an excel whiz, you can also spell “anal retentive” and get it right WITHOUT spell check!

Tonight I’ll be opening up my Excel...lent Belgian ale, and studying the “tipping point” at which each state in between “warm glow” and “comatose” occurs. I predict 8.37 ounces to “glow”, with a MOE of +/- 1 oz. The rest of the numbers will come in later in the evening.

(But seriously, I’m glad SOMEONE is doing this statistical stuff. Just not me.)


7 posted on 11/06/2012 4:02:09 PM PST by Nervous Tick ("You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.")
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To: muawiyah

Watch Vigo County. It always votes the winner.


8 posted on 11/06/2012 4:04:36 PM PST by LS
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To: Nervous Tick

LOL

I may hit the bottle AFTER I know who wins.


9 posted on 11/06/2012 4:06:48 PM PST by Stat Man
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To: Stat Man

4% of precincts from KY and IN in with Romney way above these tipping points.

Which makes me wonder. Isn’t it usually the case that early returns favor Republicans and later returns favor Democrats, because big city precincts take longer to count? That could be a flaw in this method.


10 posted on 11/06/2012 4:09:36 PM PST by Stat Man
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To: Stat Man

We’re closing the computers and partying with friends and neighbors. It’s a sanity-preserving exercise.

Have fun with your stats!

(P.S. — my inside sources — OK, ok, it’s just my insides — tell me Romney-Ryan is going to win.)


11 posted on 11/06/2012 4:10:31 PM PST by Nervous Tick ("You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.")
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To: jwalsh07

bump


12 posted on 11/06/2012 4:12:08 PM PST by JIM O
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To: jwalsh07

My wife just said the local radio here in KY said that with most precincts giving results, Romney has 70%. To the subject of the OP, that’s 14 points higher than my huffington post map put it.


13 posted on 11/06/2012 4:15:39 PM PST by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: Stat Man
Which makes me wonder. Isn’t it usually the case that early returns favor Republicans and later returns favor Democrats, because big city precincts take longer to count? That could be a flaw in this method.

Yeah, that is usually true. With only 4% in we aren't going to know if its above or below the tipping point unless we have tipping point data for the particular areas in the 4%.

14 posted on 11/06/2012 4:18:05 PM PST by AndyTheBear
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To: Nervous Tick

I will be partaking in your “tipping point” analysis here in a few minutes.

Got a little bit of work to finish up and then I am going to turn on FOX News, sit back and toast the Republican, God willing, landslide victory!


15 posted on 11/06/2012 4:19:47 PM PST by ExTxMarine (PRAYER: It's the only HOPE for real CHANGE in America!)
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To: cuban leaf

Good news, thanks. I’ve been waiting to see how much the vote swings in early states.


16 posted on 11/06/2012 4:26:20 PM PST by jwalsh07
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To: I still care

He’s on Fox right now.


17 posted on 11/06/2012 4:47:57 PM PST by FrdmLvr (culture, language, borders)
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To: AndyTheBear

Seven states now with partial results in the spreadsheet I made based on this blog’s idea.

Shows Romney 29% chance of winning vs 71% for Obama.

Romney trailing early in FL and NC main reasons why.

Like you say, I think this is probably flawed, depending on where the early votes are coming from. Once a lot of states are beyond 50% of precincts in, this system probably starts approximating reality and becomes a lot more useful.


18 posted on 11/06/2012 4:55:10 PM PST by Stat Man
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To: Stat Man

14 states now with partial results, 2 with 50% or more in.
Romney 32%, Obama 68% chance of winning.

Exit polling sounds bad for Romney too.

I’m not ready to call this, but it isn’t looking good.


19 posted on 11/06/2012 5:27:22 PM PST by Stat Man
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To: Stat Man

I’d watch that, if Holder’s people riot tonite and tomorrow, you might need a real steady hand.


20 posted on 11/06/2012 5:40:05 PM PST by Secret Agent Man (I can neither confirm or deny that; even if I could, I couldn't - it's classified.)
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To: jwalsh07

22 states with partial returns in, 3 at 50% or more
Romney 27%, Obama 73% chance of winning.


21 posted on 11/06/2012 6:01:46 PM PST by Stat Man
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To: Secret Agent Man

Hmm... Odds are if I’m hitting the bottle, they won’t be rioting, if you know what I mean.


22 posted on 11/06/2012 6:04:12 PM PST by Stat Man
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To: Stat Man

I got you. Stop before you hit ‘coma’. There’s only one way the other side is gonna off me and I won’t make it very easy.


23 posted on 11/06/2012 6:09:11 PM PST by Secret Agent Man (I can neither confirm or deny that; even if I could, I couldn't - it's classified.)
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To: Secret Agent Man

I hear you.
I gotta move though. It’ll be easy for them with me simply because when I say I represent the 1% it’s not about income, it’s the percentage of Republicans in my neighborhood.

40 states now with partial returns in, 10 at 50% or more precincts in.
Romney 21, Obama 79 percent chance of winning.

I’m almost ready to call this over before the media does.

At this point, Romney only wins with freakish voting in Ohio and some other swing state like Colorado that runs counter to Obama’s results in the rest of the country.


24 posted on 11/06/2012 7:05:06 PM PST by Stat Man
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To: JIM O

44 states with partial returns in, 17 with 50% or more precincts in.

Romney 23%, Obama 77% chance of winning.
Romney under-performing “tipping point” in most states (27 of the 44).

However, creeping back towards Romney since my last check.
Must wins now are FL, VA, OH and one other swing state... probably CO only one possible.

OH and CO looking unlikely but possible at the moment.

I’m still close to calling this for Obama, but not ready yet.


25 posted on 11/06/2012 7:45:17 PM PST by Stat Man
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To: jwalsh07

Well, I’m not sure this system achieved it’s desired goal. When I punched in the numbers that finally convinced me it was over, all but 4 states partially in, 34 states over 50% in, Obama 85% chance of winning, it was almost to the moment that Fox called Ohio and the whole race for Obama.

So I say it was a tie.


26 posted on 11/06/2012 8:34:39 PM PST by Stat Man
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