[Stat Man]

This looks interesting and not that hard for a stat guy like me. I think maybe I'll try making the spreadsheet.

[jwalsh07]

Just listen to Michael Barone. He’s a walking talking political encyclopedia when it comes to precincts, counties and states. The guy knows his crap. We used to have a guy li8kie that here. One Torie. Kinda miss that ole moderate and his spreadsheets.

[muawiyah]

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/results/president/indiana/ ~ Indiana, as usual, reports early ~ and this line up so far is entertaining if nothing ~ Romney is getting 60% pretty much across the board and Obama is down there at 40%.

4 years ago Obama did much better ~

[Chipper]

If I hadn’t spent the last 10 hours looking at spreadsheets I’d do this:-)

[NoobRep]

Vigo County Indiana (Terre Haute) has predicted winner of the election since 1956. Right now nearly 70% vote in and Romney leading 50-48. Went 57% for O in 2008. Also Virginia closing polls in a few minutes.

[Nervous Tick]

>> Tonight I’ll be using a spreadsheet where I’ve entered the “tipping point” for each state, as a value between -77.8 (District of Columbia) and 41.2 (Utah), bla bla bla &etc

I’ll bet that besides being an excel whiz, you can also spell “anal retentive” and get it right WITHOUT spell check!

Tonight I’ll be opening up my Excel...lent Belgian ale, and studying the “tipping point” at which each state in between “warm glow” and “comatose” occurs. I predict 8.37 ounces to “glow”, with a MOE of +/- 1 oz. The rest of the numbers will come in later in the evening.

(But seriously, I’m glad SOMEONE is doing this statistical stuff. Just not me.)

[Stat Man]

4% of precincts from KY and IN in with Romney way above these tipping points.

Which makes me wonder. Isn’t it usually the case that early returns favor Republicans and later returns favor Democrats, because big city precincts take longer to count? That could be a flaw in this method.