Romney vs. Palin (The Huckabee decision and its ramifications)

June 19, 2011 | techno

[techno]

Yesterday I wrote a post based on the premise that the media is deliberately avoiding any mention of the potential showdown between Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin in the GOP presidential race to determine who will win the GOP nomination next year and then attempted to provide mounting evidence that this was indeed the case, and in addition why the showdown is inevitable.

The potential of anybody in the field to win the nomination is NO longer a valid premise. The departure of Mike Huckabee from the presidential playing field on the evening of May 14th, 2011 on his weekly TV show determined that. To me Huckabee's move is the defining moment of the campaign so far and quite likely will in retrospect be rated the defining moment of the entire 2012 GOP primary season by pundits and historians. Isn't it ironic that five weeks later the Huckabee decision has NOT gained the widespread attention and scrutiny that I thought would accompany it?

Well I am going to try to make up for that neglect by the media and analyze the Huckabee decision from a few different angles.

1)The timing of the Huckabee decision

If you remember back in late January 2011 Mike Huckabee told the world that he would NOT be making any decision of his presidential prospects for 2012 until "the latter part of summer".

So you would think an enterprising journalist would ask the question of why Huck decided to move up his timetable of his decision. Or to look at it from a different angle, did the MSM want to avoid dwelling on the early or premature Huckabee decision in order to avoid discussing its political ramifications as it pertained to the candidacy of Mitt Romney and the potential candidacy of Sarah Palin. Was a decision taken by the media or the people pulling the strings to move on abruptly from the Huckabee decision in order to avoid conjecturing that the GOP presidential horse race might subsequently boil down to a two-person contest between Romney and Palin in a matter of one or two months once enough polls were conducted in what I call the post-Huckabee era?

As for Huck's intentions, let me state categorically I do NOT believe that Huckabee is a dumb man. He knew he could NOT beat both Romney and Palin in the same election cycle but he must have also known based on several polls conducted prior to Huckabee leaving and asking for second choices that a plurality of his support would move over to Sarah Palin and that a smaller slice of it would move over to Mitt Romney thereby causing both candidates to separate themselves from the field in future polls. And that is exactly what happened. Did Huck move up his timetable to give Sarah Palin a better chance or opportunity to compete against Romney? Or to put it another way did Huck want to find a way to make it less likely that Romney would secure the nomination? Perhaps.

2)The ramifications of the Huckabee decision on the polls

Here is a comparison between the poll numbers of the last polls of both Romney and Palin one month before Huckabee pulled out and then polls conducted in the post-Huckabee era one month after Huck pulled out (if there were two polls by the same pollster I have only included the latest poll in my calculation).

a)ROMNEY

5/10-------------PPP---------18

5/5--------------CNN---------13

5/4-------------QUINNPIAC----18

4/29-----------FOX NEWS------19

4/28-----------RASMUSSEN-----17

4/26-----------INSIDER ADV---14

4/22-----------GALLUP--------16

--------------AVERAGE--------16.4

B)PALIN

5/10----------PPP------------12

5/5-----------CNN------------11

5/4-----------QUINNPIAC------15

4/29----------FOX NEWS-------9

4/28----------RASMUSSEN------9

4/26----------INSIDER ADV----12

4/22----------GALLUP---------13

-------------AVERAGE--------11.6

Now post-Huckabee polls for both candidates

a)ROMNEY

5/24--------INSIDER ADV-----16

5/24--------MORRIS----------25

6/7---------ABC/WAPO--------21

6/8---------QUINNPIAC-------25

6/8---------REUTERS/IPSOS---18

6/8---------FOX NEWS--------23

6/11--------FDU-------------26

6/12--------GALLUP----------24

6/13--------CNN-------------24

6/15--------ECON/YOUGOV-----14

6/15--------NBC/WSJ---------30

6/16--------PPP-------------22

------------AVERAGE---------20.3

B)PALIN

5/24-------INSIDER ADV-----11

5/24-------MORRIS----------16

6/7--------ABC/WAPO--------17

6/8--------QUINNPIAC-------15

6/8--------REUTERS/IPSOS---19

6/8--------FOX NEWS--------12

6/11-------FDU-------------11

6/12-------GALLUP----------16

6/13------CNN--------------20

6/15------ECON/YOUGOV------20

6/15------NBC/WSJ----------14

6/16------PPP--------------15

----------AVERAGE----------15.5

NB: The RCP (Real Clear Politics) average of polls has Romney at 24.4 (boosted by a point by the Rasmussen poll where Palin was not polled) and has Palin at 16.0 as the I/A and FDU polls were not included in their calculation.

But the bottom line is that the rest of the field other than Romney or Palin have moved little in their RCP average with Huckabee absent from the race. In other words Romney has separated himself from the rest of the field as a result of the Huckabee decision to where Romney for example who had a 7-8 lead over the field other than Palin when Huckabee was in the mix now roughly has a 15 point lead over the rest of the field other than Palin.

What the MSM and its pollsters would have you believe however is that Romney's surge had little or nothing to do with Huckabee leaving the race, that this Romney surge was a product of a lot of hard work behind the scenes by Mitt and that the GOP primary voters were beginning to warm up to Romney. And they would then have you believe that Romney's lead is tenuous and that the rest of the field but Palin has a decent shot to get back into the game. Media smoke and mirrors. They have no shot, other than Palin.

n contrast the media has chosen to completely ignore Palin's surge because of Huckabee's departure despite past polls again that speculated on Huck leaving the race when Huck was still contemplating his decision and found that Palin would get a boost from Huck's departure and in fact would be its main beneficiary. And thus the media has NOT only denied the actual reality of the current Palin surge but also denied or ignored evidence gathered beforehand that predicted Palin's surge. Look up the definition of disingenuous.

And the reason why the media has denied Palin her surge: To deny the reality of how the GOP race is shaping up into a two-person showdown between Romney and Palin.

3)The political ramifications of the Huckabee decision looking ahead to Iowa and beyond

The decision by Huckabee to move up his timetable for leaving the presidential race from the latter part of summer to May 14th sent shock waves throughout the GOP establishment and Team Romney.

Imho, the GOP establishment fully realized in April that Palin was in a down cycle in the polls while Romney who while not hitting on all cylinders polling less than 20% in national polls at least was still the front-runner. And I believe the thinking a couple of months ago with Palin down in the polls caused by the constant deluge of reports she was not running and a constant bombardment by her enemies to demonize her was that it would be easier for the anti-Palin forces to make the case before Palin entered the race officially that she was NOT viable and thus make it easier to push somebody else forward as a possible rival to Romney, albeit a bogus premise. And with Palin hitting a low-water mark in her polls, they might be able to PROSELYTIZE her support which would then cause her poll numbers to even spiral downwards even more.

But with Huckabee bowing out when he did, he injected new "polling life" into the potential Palin candidacy and as you can see by the results of the polls post-Huckabee and the RCP average, Palin shot up in the polls within 3-4 weeks of Huck's departure and separated herself from the rest of the field as well. There are NO secrets in politics so Palin's enemies knew what Huck's decision would mean in terms of Palin's poll numbers. Palin was back in the game and because of one political decision Romney was no longer assured of victory next year.

And folks, that is why I do claim that Huckabee's decision to bow out of May 14th rather than 3-3 and 1/2 months later is the most significant event of the GOP primary season. By bowing out early, Huckabee allowed Palin to recover from her lull in her April polling numbers and to rebound to where any objective observer now would conclude that Palin is definitely in the hunt and the only candidate within striking distance of Romney and the only candidate in the field who is capable of stopping Romney from securing the nomination.

Could Palin have beaten Romney if Huck had stuck to his original timetable? We'll never know. But we do know Huck allowed Palin to regain some legitimacy in her polling numbers which imho would not have been forthcomming if Huckabee were still in the race and Palin had not declared. And that increased polling legitimacy (although denied or ignored by the MSM) together with the debut of The Undefeated and of course Palin's entry into the presidential fray should even further legitimize her campaign and her attempt to narrow the margin between her and Romney over the course of the next few months and finally give Palin the opportunity to catapult past Romney as her surge eventually becomes an absolute juggernaut. Thank you, Mike Huckabee.

In conclusion the GOP presidential race is NOT open. Instead it will become or evolve into a "death match" between Romney and Palin. Everyone else in the race or who gets into the race later other than Palin is simply noise, background or filler.

[cc2k]

Interesting observations. I've also been puzzled by how the Media has been reacting to Palin lately. Mostly, they ignore her. The only exceptions are an occasional appearance on Fox News, which is typically followed by a one or two day marathon of "We hate Sarah" from everyone at MSDNC. I still think she'll jump in late in the summer, or perhaps in the fall.

How do you think Bachmann getting in affects the race? Do you think Palin might throw support behind her? I'm not sure what to make of that development.

The one thing I'm still pretty sure of is that we did not see an appearance by the actual nominee at any of the debates held so far (on Fox and CNN).

[Jeff Winston]

Frankly, it looks like Sarah Palin is our candidate.

[Andy from Chapel Hill]

As much as I like Palin, she will only run if she can win. She cannot take a second loss and remain at the top of the conservative thought leadership.

My prediction is that if Perry becomes a serious candidate (the Gingrich hires are a big sign he will...), then Sarah will endorse him over Romney. If Sarah ran against Perry and Romney, then Romney would probably win the nomination. I would imagine that Bachmann or Ryan would be seen as Perry’s VP pick.

Sarah may run as VP again, stay as a pundit or become the Secretary of Interior/Energy or Commerce.

[techno]

That was why it was really important that Huckabee got out early so Palin could pick up some steam and separate herself from Bachmann in the RCP average.

Again with Huck still in the race, Palin would have had a more difficult time separating herself from Bachmann. Now she has about a 8-10 point lead over her which is pretty substantial.

And you can throw out the Rasmussen poll that showed Bachmann at 19%. Palin was not part of the mix.

[freedumb2003]

>>As much as I like Palin, she will only run if she can win.<<

Also, she can only win if she runs.

Based on her behavior in the last month or so, I say she won’t. Not she shouldn’t (although that is clearly a subject of great debate) — simply, she won’t.

I await the usual attacks of me as a Romney-supporting homosexual-agenda commie liberal socialist (who needs consistency when you are hurling invective?) illegal-alien-supporter because I DARE predict she won’t run.

I have been run out of a lot of FR arguments (the AM has been overloaded with “abuse” hits for me disagreeing with people), but I just can’t allow it to happen when I am reading the tea leaves.

[don-o]

Good post. Well written; well thought out.

I never could get past a visceral dislike for Huckabee. He gives me the creeps.Do you consider it a possibility that if Palin does not get in, that Huck would re-enter?

Bachmann is going nowhere - we do not nominate Representatives to run for the Presidency. Cain is going nowhere.

I’m thinking the most likely scenario is Perry or DeMint in and Palin going with one of them.

[don-o]

Some folks think being mind-numbed is a good thing. What’s that new Coulter book again?

[Jeff Head]

RUN SARAH, RUN!

Sarah Palin is shaking the Democratic leftist-liberal house to its very foundation.

She, her family, their faith, their values, and their story (particularly of choosing life for their young son and then so obviously being blessed with love for that son and he for them) represent the absolute refutation of all the tired old liberal mantras and victimology and a culture of death that they malignantly use to mentally, psychologically, and financially enslave whole classes of people.

From women's rights, to family values, to gun rights, to abortion, to energy policy, to taxation, to envrionmentalism, to fundamental governing principal, to U.S. soveriegnty and independence, and on and on...Sarah Palin is a wrecking ball to the leftist, liberal, socialist house of cards.

...and the leftists, DNC, liberals, MSM, and RINOs all know it, and that's why they rant and rave on and on about her and will do anything to keep her out of this race.

[freedumb2003]

>>Some folks think being mind-numbed is a good thing. What’s that new Coulter book again?<<

A-yup.

I love being proven right.

[techno]

Here is further statistical proof that confirms the separation between Romney and Palin vs. the rest of the field.

In two recent polls one conducted by ABC/WAPO and the other by Reuters/Ipsos the pollster asked an addition question of who the respondent’s second choice would be and then both pollsters tabulated the combined results to show the maximum each candidate had the potential to garner. Here are the results of both polls.

1)Reuters-Ipsos June 8

Combined first + second choice of respondents:

OVERALL GOP INDEPENDENTS

ROMNEY-————27%-————32%————16%

PALIN—————25%-————29%————15%

PAUL-—————14%-————15%————13%

BACHMANN-———12%-————13%————9%

CAIN-—————12%-————14%————7%

GINGRICH-———11%-————14%————5%

PAWLENTY-———9%—————10%————7%

PERRY—————9%—————10%————5%

HUNTSMAN-———5%—————5%-————5%

2) ABC/WAPO June 7

Combined first + second choices of respondents

OVERALL

ROMNEY-——————34%

PALIN———————28%

GINGRICH-—————13%

PAUL-———————12%

PAWLENTY-—————8%

BACHMANN-—————8%

CAIN-———————8%

Further proof that both Romney and Palin have separated themselves from the rest of the field.

[Diogenesis]

[SoConPubbie]

Based on her behavior in the last month or so, I say she won’t. Not she shouldn’t (although that is clearly a subject of great debate) — simply, she won’t.

Still pushing that thread-bare line I see.

Your opinion doesn't jive with everything she has done and said during the last several months including last month.

1. Bus tour
2. Bus tour stop in NH on the day that Romney declares meeting with GOP leaders in state effectively sucking the air out of the room.
3. Release of "The Undefeated" in major POTUS Campaign States.
4. Attempts to meet with Margaret Thatcher in the near future
5. Continued Bus tour to meet America and talk about Constitutional Issues around rest of country

Your opinion is lacking in foundational logic and facts that it is laughable.

Don't give up your day job Freedumb2003, your Political Analysis skills are completely lacking.

[Lakeshark]

I await the usual attacks of me as a Romney-supporting homosexual-agenda commie liberal socialist (who needs consistency when you are hurling invective?) illegal-alien-supporter because I DARE predict she won’t run

Since you posted that nonsense, why don't you show us one of these attacks?

Even better yet, show us a few.....

*Looking at watch for reply*

Please, think before you post......

[freedumb2003]

>>Don’t give up your day job Freedumb2003, your Political Analysis skills are completely lacking.<<

As usual for you and your ilk, you can’t simply disagree — you must make it personal.

Think about the implications of that... The “potential” (if unlikely) candidate may be gauged as much by her supporters as herself.

[freedumb2003]

Look at post 13: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/2736981/posts?page=13#13

Look at YOUR post. Do you REALLY need me to go back and hit every thread? Observers of this thread don’t need the proof — they see it every time one of these emerge.

Bottom line, denotative or connotative, any suggestion that Gov. Palin WON’T run (much less shouldn’t run) is met with insane blind rage. Like yours.

With “Service Unavailable” you can look at your damned watch all night. Your post makes my point — and on every Gov. Palin (btw: do you know her personally? Why do you refer to her by her first name?)

And I am keeping track. And when Gov. Palin makes it clear she isn’t running there won’t be enough crow in the world for you to choke on it.

And the difference is that I have been denotative — I have said nothing about people who think she WILL run, except to the extent they attack me for saying she WON’T.

Smart people will see the difference. Others... well, what can I say?

[Lakeshark]

I expect you to show us one post like you claimed was common.

You know you screwed up, just admit it. Prevarication will only dig you deeper. Hyperbole is no way to convince people on FR.

I don't give a damn about service unavailable, you couldn't show one of those posts you claimed were normal if it took all night with a clear server.

[ansel12]

(the AM has been overloaded with “abuse” hits for me disagreeing with people

How would you know whether someone has hit the abuse button on you, especially to that wild extent, did you just make that up?

[truthfreedom]

Your argument presumes that Palin does run.

I’m not saying if she is or isn’t. She hasn’t announced yet, so both possibilities should be considered.

On Palin vs Romney - I wouldn’t count Gingrich out for the Establishment vote. Is Palin strong in the South? Are Mormons popular in South Carolina? So, Romney gets more votes than Gingrich in New Hampshire. That’s a reasonable assumption. Does Romney get more votes in South Carolina than Gingrich?

What exactly has Romney done to deserve “my turn”? 2nd place finisher is one way you can get “my turn”, but not the only way. Gingrich, because of Contract with America, is more deserving of “my turn” than Romney. A Liberal one term Governor from a Liberal state. Now what happens is that, because Romney is the front runner, everyone attacks Romney.
It doesn’t have to happen yet, but everyone benefits from attacking Romney. Last time, at this time, Giuliani was the front runner, here, Thompson and Giuliani were tied for 1st, almost exactly 4 years ago.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2007/06/19/us-usa-politics-poll-idUSN1918714220070619

Romney is the front runner, and he can make the case that it’s his turn. Gingrich is down right now, not taking the hits that Romney is likely to take as the front runner. I’m
just saying to rule Gingrich out at any point would be a mistake. He actually did something very good for Republicans, and voters remember that. Romney hasn’t done anything.

What you’re saying is basically right though, in that it’s a race between a tea party candidate and an establishment candidate. The most likely tea party candidate is Palin, if Palin runs, but if she doesn’t, Bachmann, Paul, Cain. On the other side, a similar story, Romney is the establishment front runner, the likely establishment candidate, but any number of things can happen. No one has run a negative ad against Romney yet. One would think that knocking Romney down would be essential for every other establishment candidate. Attacking Pawlenty would be pointless. Attacking Romney certainly wouldn’t be. So, any of them could take the establishment slot, if Romney is hurt enough.
I welcome an obscure Governor as the establishment candidate. It makes it easier for the Tea Party candidate to win.