Posted on 11/08/2010 1:28:14 PM PST by bilhosty
There were a ton of competitive Senate races in 2010 and the playing field could be even wider in 2012. Since the beginning of August PPP has polled on the approval ratings of 18 Senators who are up for reelection next time around. 9 of the 18 have an approval spread somewhere that's between +10 and -10, indicating the kind of ambiguous feelings toward an incumbent that can lead to a competitive race.
The three least popular and conceivably most vulnerable Senators up next time that we've polled on are Joe Lieberman, Claire McCaskill, and Debbie Stabenow.
That’s because the Blue Dogs won in 2006 and are up for re-election. I think even Herb Kohl is toast.
Things look really good for us in ‘04 too....then ‘06 and ‘08 happened. We need to stay on point, stay on message.
Class I - Senators Whose Term of Service Expire in 2013
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Should be Joe Manchin’s name in place of Carte Goodwin.
I think I see seven Dems there who could easily lose, and no Republicans who can lose-—although one who should.
I count 13.
NM, OH, ND, FL, and MT are easy pickups. MO, WV, NJ, PA, MI, and WN should be in play.
Early call + 7.
I’m not sure what Hutchison will do here in Texas. She’s been all over the map with when she was leaving the senate and so far she hasn’t. A strong primary candidate may could defeat her if she does decide to run again. I’m hoping she doesn’t and decides to come home to Texas and take care of her two adopted children.
And those are mostly the strongest Demonrats!
Let’s not forget:
Jim Webb of newly scarlet Virginia
Kent Conrad of Deep-Red North Dakota
Jon Tester of crimson Montana
Bob Menendez of turing purply New Jersey (38-43 approval-disapproval rating)
And then 2014 looks positively ugly for the Democrats.
This came from the Senate website so I suspect they haven’t actually sworn in the winner and updated the website.
Lugar and Hutchison probably will retire.
Ensign probably will have to retire
Hatch will be retired by Utah’s unique primary process.
My prediction:
Likely:
Bill Nelson of Florida (37% approval)
Ben Nelson of Nebraska (32% approval; old as dirt, or -25%)
Debbie Stabenow of Michigan (38%, or -12%)
Claire McCaskill of Missouri (40%, or -13%)
Bob Casey, Jr. of Pennsylvania (36%, or -4%)
Sherrod Brown of Ohio (31% or -9)
Jon Tester of Montana
Jim Webb of Virginia
Promising:
Herb Kohl of Wisconsin (41%, or +1; older than dirt)
Bob Menendez of New Jersey (35% or -4)
Joe Manchin of West Virginia, if he doesn’t vote like a Republican
Possible knock-offs:
Maria Cantwell of Washington (less popular than Patty Murray, at 41%, or -2)
Dianne Feinstein of California (quite possibly retiring; she’ll be 79)
Kirsten Gillibrand of New York (who skated through with token opposition, spending $16 million for a two-year term.)
Republican retirement possibilities:
John Ensign of Nevada (prostitution scandal; should be easy to retain his seat.)
Kay Bailey Hutchison (said she would retire, but has rescinded such claims before; easy retention)
Orrin Hatch (retire or be defeated in primary; easy retention)
Richard Lugar (will be 80; easy retention)
Olympia Snowe (faces tough primary; should easily be re-elected if she stays on; could be challenging to retain if she retires)
Prediction: Republicans gain 10 seats. Conservatives gain 13.
Jon Kyl would be 70... he’s an outside possibility to retire. I’d take it as good news if he did; he’s very open-borders and has been slowly drifting leftward.
YIKES! I slandered Ensign accidentally! His marital infidelity, as despicable as it was, was not with a prostitute!
Carper is up in DE. Let’s dust off COD and give it a go. Third time is the charm.
No. 3 times will not work. She ran a valiant race, but we need someone with a better work and business history.
I understand Mike Castle is looking for work.
No, between those two, I am sure there are better candidates for the GOP who can win.
I think Tester in MT is toast. He barely won on Obies coattails in a dark red state. Kent and Nelson (NE), also from dark red states. I bet Nelson retires, easy R pickup. The pubbies will beat him to a pulp with his healthcare vote.
Brown, McCaskill and Webb are all from traditional swing states that have swung back to R. Casey, Kohl and Stabenow are from heretofore reliable blue states that have just revolted against all things Obama.
Gillebrand is low hanging fruit if the pubbies find a decent candidate. Guiliani takes that seat like taking candy from a baby. Manchin in WV is a win-win. If he supports Obama on anything substantial, he's toast. So the pubbies can rely on his vote about half the time I'd suspect - which is about the best they would have gotten from Castle anyway.
It's a presidential year, so turnout will be high. I'll make another prediction. Obama won't run for re-election-he's too good for us and we don't appreciate him- and the African Americans will stay home. Hillary will know this and will wait to 2016. Without the African-American vote, the Dems are doomed.
Bottom line, Dems take a thumpin in 2012.
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