12 Democrat Incumbents Are Behind in New Poll

Red Meat Conservative ^ | 10/06/10 | Daniel

[red meat conservative]

The Hill just published the results of 12 House polls that they conducted together with America’s Natural Gas Alliance (ANGA). The Republican challenger is ahead in 11 of them and tied with the Democrat in one district. Over the next few weeks the Hill will publish poll results in 42 districts. The survey size is 400 per district with a 4.9% margin of error. Oh, and by the way, the poll team is being led by Democrat consultant Mark Penn. Here are the results:

AZ-1: Republican Paul Gosar leads Dem. Ann Kirkpatrick 46-39. CO-4: Republican Cory Gardner leads Democrat Betsey Markey 44-41. IL-11: Republican Adam Kinzinger leads Dem. Debbie Halvorson 49-31. MD-1: Republican Andy Harris leads Dem Frank Kratovil 43-40. MI-7: Republican Tim Walberg is tied with Dem Mark Schauer at 41. NV-3: Republican Joe Heck leads Dem Dina Titus 47-44. NM-2: Republican Steve Pearce leads Dem. Harry Teague 46-42. OH-15: Republican Steve Stivers leas Dem. Mary Jo Kilroy 47-38. OH-16: Republican Jim Renacci leads Dem. John Boccieri 42-39. PA-3: Republican Mike Kelly leads Dem. Kathy Dahlkemper 49-36. VA-2: Republican Scott Rigell leads Dem. Glenn Nye 42-36. VA-5: Republican Robert Hurt leads Dem. Tom Periello 45-44

7 of these Democrats are endorsed by the NRA. We reported yesterday on how they might preserve Pelosi's majority. Based upon these polls we might be able to conclude that their endorsements don't mean that much after all.

[ScottinVA]

VA-5: Republican Robert Hurt leads Dem. Tom Periello 45-44

A rather rapid narrowing of the gap from last week's SUSA poll that showed a 23-point lead for Hurt. Pereillo has GOT to go!

[Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus]

Wonder how much further ahead these conservative GOPers would be, if the NRA wasn't endorsing scads of Dems this year, so as to try to position themselves to benefit from the DISCLOSE Act, if/when it's brought back up for consideration?

NRA = Naive Reid Acolytes

[Sybeck1]

“7 of these Democrats are endorsed by the NRA.”

Will the NRA have egg on its face in the end?

[Redleg Duke]

The NRA has rendered itself irrelevant.

[mrsmith]

.
These polls are worthless- NO CROSSTABS OR INTERNALS.

[liberlog]

Also, keep in mind that Penn is a long-time, very committed Democratic pollster. Hard to believe that his biases don’t lead to somewhat skewed numbers. All in all, I’d say these numbers are very encouraging and tend to confirm the big picture, which is something close to a Republican wipeout of Democrats on November 2.

[Victor]

It’s great to see seats in Illinois and Maryland up for grabs. Here in NJ, people like Frank Pallone are being cornered.

[nbenyo]

This is not very encouraging. The Perriello, Markey, Kratovil and Boccieri seats were supposed to be easy pickups, and they are statistically tied.

[red meat conservative]

yeah VA-5 has been all over the place. These polls are far from perfect, but the cumulitve effect of seeing so many incumbents in trouble is a good indicator of things to come.

[red meat conservative]

Victor,

Actually that congressional district in Md is very conservative. I am surprised that fraud Kraptovil is so close to Harris.

[Victor]

Thanks for that update. Maryland is so hard to read but it's good to know that there are conservative districts.

It's the same here in New Jersey. While the public perception is that NJ is a blue state, a lot of NJ is very red...for example, here in Monmouth county. It's the northern counties, heavily populated and heavily unionized that forces the scales.

[St. Louis Conservative]

Any time an incumbent is under 50% means they are in trouble. If they’re under 45% they’re probably done, especially in a wave election.....and if they’re behind, and barely breaking 40%, the challenger can start measuring the drapes.

[InterceptPoint]

We've just posted these at The Polls of the KeyHouseRaces.