Posted on 11/06/2004 10:29:05 AM PST by B Knotts
Republicans have been poring over the exit polls, and will continue to do so in the coming months, trying to see where they succeeded, where they failed, and what policy positions and strategies are likely to lead to electoral success in the future.
It goes without saying that Democrats are doing the same.
I am going to go way out on a limb, and make what will be considered by many to be a wild prediction. I hope to convince you that this isn't as wild a prediction as it may first appear.
A caveat: this is not something I am rooting for, or advocating, or anything of the sort. It is just something I am concluding, based on the need for the Democrats to remake themselves into a viable national party.
The Democratic party is going to become an anti-immigration party.
"What's that," you say? "That can't be. Everyone knows the Democrats are the champions of the downtrodden immigrant." Everyone, apparently, except the downtrodden immigrants.
There has been a gradual shift that has been happening for many years that has not got much attention, but was accelerated in this election cycle. Latinos are increasingly voting for Republicans.
No, it's not happening everywhere, nor at every level. But it is a pretty clear trend, and shows no signs of reversing.
The Democrats have a lot of thinking to do, and they are going to conclude that, firstly, they must shed themselves of something I call the "abortigay" platform. It is a litmus test for candidates that will be thrown out, along with the rest of the failed Michael Moore/Howard Dean infrastructure.
This will allow the Democrats to be more competitive for the votes of normal Americans, like--for instance--union members, a bare majority of whose votes they managed to collect.
But, they will need something more to animate the more economically liberal red staters that they're serious.
And this will be the immigration issue. It is undeniably an issue that is exploitable, but they have refrained from doing so in fear of offending Latino voters who used to vote overwhelmingly Democratic. With their share of that still relatively small voting base at 55% and falling rapidly, they are going to conclude that this is no longer to be feared.
They will frame this as an environmental and fair labor issue, and will run with it.
Could I be completely wrong on this? Perhaps. And I'm not saying that this is necessarily going to be a near-single issue for them...it will initially be a second- or third-tier issue, to be sure. But, unless I'm very much mistaken, there will be a noticeable shift, at least at the national level.
Considering the overwhelming support of the electorate for radical immigration reform (in the direction of defending our borders against invasion), this would be a smart move. ......but there's not a chance in hell they'll do it.
Im sorry to admit it but I would lend them fair ear if they took up the issue.
Well, I'm not sorry to admit that they still could go directly to hell.
I didnt say I would vote for them...only that I would listen. ;)
I agree, they will dump the homosexual lobby. They can't afford to dump the abortionists however. Too much a core constituency. They'd lose millions of female babykillers and their money (think Emily's List).
They certainly could afford to work the immigration issue however, and I think you are insightful to see this. I didn't think of it.
The 'rats have enough access into the hispanic population that if they do it carefully, they could construct a domestic "proHispanic" anti-illegal immigration platform.
I understand that many hispanics already feel this way, but distrust the GOP on the issue because we got demagogued in California years ago.
The best platform for either party would thus be pro-Hispanic, pro-legal immigrant, anti-illegal immigrant, and be able to convey those distinctions in a convincing way.
I bet you are right, the "rats will try, and in fact so should we!
OK. Let's suppose they dump their abortion stand, or just lighten up from all abortions, all the time, from day 1 of a pregnancy to 3 yrs. after, that gets rid of the NOW gang and Emily's list (including a lot of Rino women.) Then if they dump the gays, that gets rid of a handful of people, but a ton of $. Then they adopt some reasonable stand on illegal immigration, that loses a boatload of voters signed up at the DMV, the 10 gazillion illegals who already live here who are already on the voting rolls, and worst of all, it makes Soros and all his money and "open borders" people run like hell. And they gain in the red states what portion of Dems voting Repub and Repubs? Looks very risky to me.
I don't think your far off, B Knotts. Weeks before the election, Sheila Jackson Lee and several other dems were harping on CSpan about the border. They need a cause and if the Repubs are right, the "immigrants" are voting republican, so why should they care. Also, if the envirofreak lawyers get hold of this, they will push it, because it is an endangered species, watershed topic. Here's a couple references below for that. Not to mention what happens along the border with garbage, destroying habitat, etc....ask anyone who lives there.
The seizures statewide included 155,000 more plants than last year and had a street value of $2.5 billion, Attorney General Bill Lockyer said. More than half of all the pot seized was grown on public land, where armed growers can pose a danger to unsuspecting hikers and hunters.
Such people stumbled upon marijuana gardens 16 times this year, officials said, including one instance in the Sierra National Forest where three brothers going fishing with their children came across men with guns guarding a 3,000-plant garden.
"They feared for their lives," Jimenez said of the men, who picked their way quietly and slowly out of the area.
Members of local sheriffs offices, the U.S. Forest Service, California National Guard and Bureau of Land Management conducted 181 raids, seized 53 weapons and arrested more than 50 people.
Outside Riverside, nearly all the program's raids this year utilized helicopters for so-called "short-haul" operations. Agents drop in on marijuana gardens by dangling from lines attached to the aircraft, saving countless hours previously spent hiking through dense brush or forests to the remote, often secluded locations favored by growers.
http://www.modbee.com/state_wire/story/9384213p-10292091c.html
"Park officials said marijuana growers are causing havoc. Besides clearing trees and brush to cultivate marijuana plants, growers often terrace the land, stirring up soil and attracting plants that wouldn't otherwise take hold. In addition, the diversion of water is hindering the migration of wildlife, and pollution from fertilizer runoff is killing fish."
http://209.157.64.200/focus/f-news/911265/posts
In the late 70s/early 80s, all the local Democratic politicians in South Florida (Janet Reno included) along with the liberal Miami Herald were anti-immigrant. Most of the people with bumper stickers saying "Will the last American leaving Miami turn out the lights" were Democrats themselves. Then, when Haitians and other (non-Cuban) immigrants started entering South Florida, they went right back to being the "party of diversity."
I do think they will distance themselves from the gay lobby.
I don't think they will run very far from the pro-abortion crowd. But, they will allow for greater dissent within the party, and pro-life Democrats will be allowed to a greater degree in party leadership.
Probably. Like I said, I'm not advocating this; it just came to mind, and I thought I'd write it down.
Also, I think Soros is dispensable to the Democrats. Look at what he did for them this time: a near-total disaster.
Where would they have been without all the $ Soros spent? Lots less nasty ads wall to wall on TV and NOBODY out there gathering up registrations (legal and illegal) or dragging people to the polls on election day to vote once or more than once. I told my husband that my best hope for election day was that since the Dems had left the "walking around money" to the 527's this year, just maybe the greedy s.o.b.'s would steal the biggest part of it before it got to the street to buy votes and I think there's a good chance that happened a lot of places.
"The first thing we want is tough border control," Mr. Dean told reporters Wednesday. "We have to do a much better job on our borders than George Bush has done. And then we can go to the policy disagreements about how to get it done."
Conservatives point to Dean for significance of border issue
And, yes, I know it's posturing, but it nevertheless points to the fact that the Democrats have picked up on the facts I outlined above.
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