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Andrew Sullivan: Beware The Exit Polls (The Left knows they're losing)
The Daily Beast's The Dish ^ | November 6, 2012 | Andrew Sullivan

Posted on 11/06/2012 10:28:45 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

Blumenthal warns:

[T]he initial results of the exit poll interviews have had frequent problems with non-response bias, a consistent discrepancy favoring the Democrats that has appeared to some degree in every presidential election since 1988. Usually the bias is small, but in 2004 it was just big enough to convince millions of Americans who saw the leaked results on the Internet that John Kerry would defeat George W. Bush. It didn't work out that way.

The resulting uproar led the networks, beginning in 2006, to hold back the data from their news media clients in a sealed quarantine room on Election Day until 5 p.m. Eastern time. The quarantine means that any numbers purporting to be "exit polls" before 5 p.m. are almost certainly bogus.

Sarah Kliff's advice on exit polls:

Keep an eye on the demographics. [Tom Jensen, director of Public Policy Polling] and [David Flaherty, CEO of the right-leaning Magellan Strategies] both say this is going to be one of the crucial things they’ll watch [tonight].

“Here in Colorado, for example, Latinos were 13 percent of the vote in 2008,” says Flaherty. “If it comes back at 5 pm, that they’re 18 or 20 percent of the vote, that would be a key observation. Then the folks in Chicago are going to be extremely pleased. If we see it at 9 percent, it might cause the Romney folks to start thinking that group isn’t as enthusiastic.”

Here’s Jensen’s take: “What I’m going to be looking out for are the demographics of who voted along racial and age lines. We Democratic pollsters think that the African American and younger voters will have as high turnout as they did in 2008. Republican pollsters are projecting enthusiasm won’t be there.”


TOPICS: Heated Discussion
KEYWORDS: democrats; demographics; exitpolls; interestgroups; obama; olls; polls; romney
So they assume that certain groups will vote exactly as they did in 2008, even with Mr. Obama having a record of 4 years of failure?
1 posted on 11/06/2012 10:28:58 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

And its usually Republicans that say, ignore exit polls.....when conservatives come home from work, they will be out in droves. Now I’m hearing more DEMS say ignore the exit polls? If true, they are in deep doo doo.


2 posted on 11/06/2012 10:31:04 AM PST by Blue Turtle
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
The resulting uproar led the networks, beginning in 2006, to hold back the data from their news media clients in a sealed quarantine room on Election Day until 5 p.m. Eastern time. The quarantine means that any numbers purporting to be "exit polls" before 5 p.m. are almost certainly bogus.

Bull-hocky. If the polls look good for the Messiah, they'll be leaked as a matter of policy. If they look bad for him, the release will be delayed by an hour.

3 posted on 11/06/2012 10:32:38 AM PST by Thane_Banquo (Support hate crime laws: Because some victims are more equal than others.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Dems 2004 exit polls - WE WIN WE WIN !!

Dems 2012 exit polls - IGNORE IGNORE !!


4 posted on 11/06/2012 10:33:03 AM PST by Col Frank Slade
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Dems 2004 exit polls - WE WIN WE WIN !!

Dems 2012 exit polls - IGNORE IGNORE !!


5 posted on 11/06/2012 10:33:16 AM PST by Col Frank Slade
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

what time are the first exit polls released??


6 posted on 11/06/2012 10:34:00 AM PST by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Watch out. The first round of exit polls will not catch people who have jobs and are voting after work. Youths and minorities will vote earlier in the day, so of course they will constitute an outsize percentage of voters when the 5:00 PM round of exit polls are released.

Remember in the Wisconsin recall, the 5:00 round of exit polls had the race tied. The final round of exit polls, which are released after polls are closed, showed a Walker victory.

Look for Axelrod to start proclaiming victory based on the first round of (minority-skewed) exit polls.


7 posted on 11/06/2012 10:34:49 AM PST by paglia444
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
So they assume that certain groups will vote exactly as they did in 2008, even with Mr. Obama having a record of 4 years of failure?

Would a Patriots fan decide to become a Giants fan after seeing his team endure years of failure?

For many, many voters out there, the party is their team.

8 posted on 11/06/2012 10:35:54 AM PST by wideawake
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
The Democrats are setting the stage to legally challenge a Romney win. Howard Dean says 'if we lose it's because of voter fraud', Michelle says 'don't let anyone push you out of line', etc..

If Romney wins, GOD WILLING, 0bama will not be easily extricated from the White House. There's been chatter that a coup attempt might have been in the works just in the last month or so.. 0bama's flying to Florida then immediately departing without campaigning and going back to D.C. The 'suicide' of a Secret Service agent in his car.. The aftermath of Benghazi is haunting the Democrats right now. I believe God will save America today. We simply cannot endure more hits from 0bama's wrecking ball. Sorry for babbling but I am nervous today.

9 posted on 11/06/2012 10:36:09 AM PST by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
That's funny... It was my understanding that Andrew Sullivan enjoyed a good exit polling from time to time.
10 posted on 11/06/2012 10:36:38 AM PST by Nervous Tick ("You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.")
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
You can be assured that our "friend" Nate Silver will be all over the Exit Poll data. He'll be looking for signs of an Obama victory. I don't expect him to find much.

I'm following him on Twitter just to watch the meltdown when it comes.

Here's the link for Nate Silver "fans": Nate Silver on Twitter

11 posted on 11/06/2012 10:36:43 AM PST by InterceptPoint
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I kept hearing on FOX how Republicans always win on election day, but Dems always win in early voting. If exit polls are solely based on election day, then they would be biased toward Republicans.

However, I seem to remember hearing 4 years ago that the pollsters mixed in data into the exit polls culled from early voters too. In which case the Dems should have no reason to mistrust the exit polls, unless they really are losing.

Exit polls would certainly be useless as any kind of statistic if they didn’t account for early voters.


12 posted on 11/06/2012 10:37:31 AM PST by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
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To: paglia444

Rumor on twitter is that Obama knows they are losing Ohio based on turnout so far which is why they dispatched Biden to Ohio today...


13 posted on 11/06/2012 10:37:49 AM PST by scbison
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Dan Rather has said he believes it will be a good day for Romney. Nate Silver has conceded Florida. Howard Dean is already screaming about fraud. Democrat early voting is down across the board. The writing is on the wall my friend. This is gonna get good!


14 posted on 11/06/2012 10:39:07 AM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: trappedincanuckistan

really the left is now calling my state FL for us?

Imagine if we never had over a millions black racists and yes I call them that as they would never ever , never vote if oabma was white guy.
This election would be over for the Dems


15 posted on 11/06/2012 10:42:20 AM PST by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
This is "code" for watch the late election returns as key big city precincts wait to see how many Democrat votes are needed. Much of the voting will occur after the polls close as piles of "unrecorded votes" are found in the trunks of Democrat operative's cars.

I'll predict that some Philadelphia precincts have 110% turnout with Obama getting 99%.

16 posted on 11/06/2012 10:47:06 AM PST by Senator_Blutarski
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
This is "code" for watch the late election returns as key big city precincts wait to see how many Democrat votes are needed. Much of the voting will occur after the polls close as piles of "unrecorded votes" are found in the trunks of Democrat operative's cars.

I'll predict that some Philadelphia precincts will have 110% turnout with Obama getting 99%.

17 posted on 11/06/2012 10:47:34 AM PST by Senator_Blutarski
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Here’s Jensen’s take: “What I’m going to be looking out for are the demographics of who voted along racial and age lines. We Democratic pollsters think that the African American and younger voters will have as high turnout as they did in 2008....”

There you have it-the reason, in one simple sentence, of why the polls have shown a tight race with oversampling of Ds! They (the “Democratic” Pollsters) and the clients who pay them (MSM outlets) have been assuming this is 2008! It’s not.


18 posted on 11/06/2012 10:48:14 AM PST by gumbie05
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To: Nervous Tick

Andrew prefers entry polling. Keep it on the down lo.


19 posted on 11/06/2012 10:48:29 AM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: InterceptPoint

Tonight, watching MSNBC and following Twitter will be like the Superbowl, World Series, World Cup, Indy 500 and American Idol all rolled into one...


20 posted on 11/06/2012 10:50:42 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: JediJones

I really sense the media liberals are going all out to keep hope alive so they don’t depress Dear Reader’s vote. They don’t want to lose what little audience they have by telling the truth and being blamed for the low turnout of their political party.

For example, illegals might not take the risk to vote if they suspect Romney is going to be in office and they will get caught. Students won’t bother getting out of bed...Liberals, dealing with their nasty mentalities, are easily depressed and hopeless.

It’s going to be interesting to see.


21 posted on 11/06/2012 10:52:33 AM PST by SaraJohnson
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To: Blue Turtle

Why would they be in trouble because of the exit polling? Just wondering I’m trying to find everyone’s logic on this.


22 posted on 11/06/2012 10:54:28 AM PST by erod (I'm a Chicagoan till Chicago ends...)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Tonight, watching MSNBC and following Twitter will be like the Superbowl, World Series, World Cup, Indy 500 and American Idol all rolled into one...

Who would you recommend to follow today on Twitter?

23 posted on 11/06/2012 10:58:03 AM PST by InterceptPoint
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

They could be right, their voters are dumber than stumps. Low information doesn’t quite cover it.


24 posted on 11/06/2012 11:01:26 AM PST by jwalsh07
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To: trappedincanuckistan

Where did you see / read Dan Rather’s comments?

Sounds interesting.


25 posted on 11/06/2012 11:09:46 AM PST by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: InterceptPoint

Nate Silver, Andrew Sullivan or pick your favorite leftist.


26 posted on 11/06/2012 11:10:36 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: scbison

Well that will change the outcome.


27 posted on 11/06/2012 11:11:54 AM PST by Mrs.Liberty (Somewhere in Kenya AND Delaware, villages are missing idiots.)
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To: InterceptPoint
I remember 2004 my wife was watching the Fox panel around 7PM and she was asking me who that scary woman was who was cackling about the exit polls showing Kerry ahead?

It was Susan Esterich.

28 posted on 11/06/2012 11:13:00 AM PST by AU72
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To: comebacknewt

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/dan-rather-tells-morning-joe-something-in-my-gut-tells-me-romney-will-have-a-good-day/


29 posted on 11/06/2012 11:23:17 AM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: trappedincanuckistan

Thanks FRiend.


30 posted on 11/06/2012 11:25:52 AM PST by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: InterceptPoint
Who would you recommend to follow today on Twitter?

Ace of Spades and Michelle Malkin at the very least.

31 posted on 11/06/2012 11:26:12 AM PST by kevkrom (If a wise man has an argument with a foolish man, the fool only rages or laughs...)
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To: comebacknewt

More heavy breathing from the left re exit polls.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/06/2012-exit-polls_n_2038617.html


32 posted on 11/06/2012 11:28:38 AM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks 2ndDivisionVet. I’ve never been exit-polled in my life.


33 posted on 11/06/2012 5:45:24 PM PST by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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