Posted on 04/13/2020 2:28:12 PM PDT by RaceBannon
new thread starting 4-13-2020
Renegades in Wuhan is a possibility. Their virus has attacked Wuhan severely and then China made sure it infected the rest of the world by calling flight cancellors racist. All their allies received severe viral loads. Wuhan, the Biolab and the Seafood Market were just the cutouts. 14 % of initial infections had no connection at all to market.
“These are probably the most stunning graphs on #COVID2019 #COVID19 They are from a paper analyzing the initial spread in Lombardian communes and they show that the transmission started falling around February 20, before the epidemic was even discovered.
To repeat the point...
Transmission started falling around Feb 20...
Astounding data point!
I scan the online stuff every day looking for some sort of sign of reappearance. None so far.
*****************************************************************************
I don’t do it every day-but pretty often. I just hit the reorder button for the stuff I used to reorder every month. I am amazed at how much has been out of stock for several weeks.
While I have a pretty good stash of all the stuff, there’s a few Items, I’ll be keeping a little more stashed in the future, if/when we return to normal.
Kerry gold will have a way bigger stash going forward. None of the rest measures up. Also will keep more happy eggs on hand—they are free range organic eggs and you have to go inside to buy them-they aren’t on the list for stuff you can order and pick up.
Thank you, Race and plain talk.
I’ll be staying local for a couple months more, even if Hogan starts opening things up soon. I have too many vulnerable friend and relatives, or friends and relatives who know other vulnerable people, to chance visits right now.
Deliberately seeding infected people with new strains?
And in India, too, China's chief local rival?
What's that spell to you?
(the title of another thread)
“Bill Bennett: Why Are We Panicking? This Virus Is On Track To Kill Fewer People Than The Flu”
I guess by his rationale one can ask why did we ever panic over Pearl Harbor? After all, history now shows that neither the Japanese nor the Germans ever attacked the US Mainland.
Which also strengthens the immune system thereby, and which should be common sense for mature Americans, just as wearing any type of mask is in certain situations, which we were told not to do, nor go outside for recreation, even punishing them for doing so, while making people fearful of touching their face (versus specifying mouth, eyes, nostrils), as if the virus can penetrate skin itself.
The ease in which the general populace trusts and obeys what the media tells them in headlines, and looks to the government for security, and certain governors go overboard, and the overall weakening of the country to a degree that makes 911 look relatively minor, is revelatory.
And I believe it signifies the beginning of a new phase in the end of America from which she will not recover, of a "new normal" in which draconian measures are used to justify the like to combat Climate Change. And with internal strife as money gets low and taxes on businesses increase, and external dangers (China) will lead to more insecurity, and inducement to socialism, drifting towards Venezuela, with increasing persecution of those who dissent.
Just an update on some shipping information FROM China in March:
https://www.jiffa.or.jp/en/news/entry-6413.html
“ The volume of containerized shipments exported to the U.S. from 10 major countries and regions in Asia plunged 16.6% year on year to 926,673 TEUs in March, as those from China decreased notably due to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, according to American research company Descartes Datamyne. In the first three months (January-March), a total of 3,489,831 TEUs were moved on the route, down 8.3%.
Looking at containers from Asia by origin, those from China plummeted 36% to 360,083 TEUs, coming close to the 350,000 TEUs registered in February 2009, a month still under the influence of the Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc. bankruptcy. Finishing in second place, containers from South Korea decreased a slight 0.4% to 163,398 TEUs. ”
Other reports indicate that demand for Chines products for export are expected to be down as much as 32% in the next month (YOY). This is due to the international impact of the virus.
This will leave a mark.
From abstract:
“Strongest hospitalization risks were age ≥75 years (OR 66.8, 95% CI, 44.7-102.6), age 65-74 (OR 10.9, 95% CI, 8.35-14.34), BMI>40 (OR 6.2, 95% CI, 4.2-9.3), and heart failure (OR 4.3 95% CI, 1.9-11.2).“
- see https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20057794v1
What’s interesting is this.
That’s around Ash Wednesday, which was the 17th.
Looks like Lent, and the decrease in festivities during Lent, had an effect.
Meaning that the festivities BEFORE Lent were probably not ‘average’ getting together/doing things kind of things. And after Ash Wednesday, people stopped doing so much together.
They may have had a mardi-gras boost in transmissions that fell off quickly after mardi-gras
NEW YORK CITY
Cases: 106,813
Total hospitalized*: 29,335
NYC confirmed deaths: 6,182
AGE / CASES / HOSPITALIZED / (DEATHS)
(Per 100,000 people)
0-17 119.87.......11.47.....(0)
18-44. 1200.53.......132.36......(8.43)
45-64 1886.97...... 519.98.....(70.48)
65-74 1928.97..... 938.04.....(216.13)
75+ 2154.03..... 1,357.83.....(536.40)
As of: April 13, 1 p.m.
Deaths in NYC Reported by New York State: 7,349 (as of April 13, 12: 30 p.m.)
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page
For reference:
NEW YORK STATE
General population underlying conditions:
New York State
Hypertension - 31.7% (4.9 million)
Diabetes - 12.5% (2 million)
Pre-diabetes - 36.2% (5.4 million)
http://main.diabetes.org/dorg/PDFs/Advocacy/burden-of-diabetes/new-york.pdf
Obesity - 62.7 (12 million)
https://www.health.ny.gov/prevention/obesity/
Looks like BMI over 40 is equivalent to being 65yrs old.
This is why New Orleans was a hot spot.
Ditto Detroit.
Also why Sweden will not see the same levels of hospitalization and death that the US will see.
Or Africa.
Or India.
And that you can’t compare country/country just like city/city is a poor comparison.
The numbers for New York City are not updated yet on the state website.
Should be:
NYC
106,764 cases
7,154 deaths
and the state stats are:
NY
195,031 cases
10,056 deaths
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states
“Then will come a second wave. Warn everyone you can.”
First I think the social distancing and lock downs worked. Can you image what New York would have been like if they did not put social distancing and lock down in place.
I think President Trump has us ready for the second wave. The lock down for the first wave was to buy us time to get the medical system and gear ready.
Manufacturing has started for the medical supplies. Also we have treatments to use. We might even have extra ventilators this fall for other nations, I am sure they will need it.
Note: We have to take care of our own first, we can not help other nations out of a ditch if we are in the ditch with them.
Second wave was worst in the Spanish Flu outbreak. The west coast did not get the same Coronavirus strain as New York.
Also this is looking like a big city issue. In the middle ages people flee to country side to avoid infections.
It has already been document where people had both strains at the same time, and people being re-infected. I think the second wave will be the dangerous strain invading the West coast.
Will the warmer weather slow down the Virus? I think it will slow down the virus outside of buildings, but not inside where you central AC systems blowing it around.
So do you believe infection rates inside buildings that run central AC will not slow down once the weather gets warmer?
That’s how SARS was spread in the wealthier Asian countries during that outbreak.
The poor countries didn’t have the transmission rate the wealthy ones die.
Fomites outside in the heat/humidity were much less of a problem in both sets of countries. But the a/c in the wealthier countries ensured that indoor fomites had much greater survival and for longer times.
Ssshhhh...
You cannot point that out. People will call you names. Ha Ha.
A drive through NOLA will tell your eyes what your mind already knows. There are folks down there who like their food.
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