Posted on 10/07/2016 11:34:02 AM PDT by Signalman
"Put not your trust in princes” as Psalm 146 advises… nor put such trust in princesses or polls. For “princess,” awaiting a queenly coronation, read Hillary C and for “polls” include any of those focused on the current presidential race.
In point of fact, as the Brits would say, the proper way to read the current presidential polls may be with a modicum of cryptographic decoding and guided by a few essential considerations.
The first is the obvious fact that a respondent answering the pollster may not rank toward the top of the ingenuousness scale. That is to say, he (she) may be directly lying about, or incorrectly predicting, his (her) ultimate vote… and that includes, as well, the possibility of not voting at all.
The second pertinent fact is that such inauthentic self-reports are not randomly distributed so as to generate mere statistical “noise” of the sort reflected in the reported “error limits” of the particular poll. To the contrary, the majority of those who misinform the interviewer may go in one direction rather than the other, whether the choice is between classical or country music or between Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
From what precedes there follows this crucial assertion: considerably more pro-Clinton respondents in the current polls will, in ultimate fact, vote for Trump than will “Trumpers” vote for Clinton. A much smaller number of others will vote for the Libertarian candidate or won’t vote at all. Does this prediction have a basis in any reality known to pollsters, sociologues, and social psychologists or is it mere wishful conjecture? It does indeed have a very potent basis. To use the jargon of the social psychologist, that basis is now called “Evaluation Apprehension.”
(Excerpt) Read more at spectator.org ...
The Media is faking the polls so there won't be a huge inconsistency between the public expectation and the margin of Democrat vote fraud.
Right now the polls are simply establishing how much the vote fraud needs to be padded to give Hillary a narrow, but believable and comfortable victory.
Trump is going to lose. The media will make sure it happens. The worst attacks haven’t even started yet. Most people don’t care and are distracted. Majority of the country are Obama followers who will just do what he says. The culture has already been ransacked and razed. The Republic is over.
People lie to pollsters.
And the MSM discounts the possibility and instead it assumes Hillary is likely to win because people tell them they intend to vote for her.
Confirmation bias enters the picture as well and it colors the polls we see.
You give them too much power.
We don’t live in Oceania where we’re forced to watch Big Brother on omniscient telescreens.
I have shut out the MSM and I pay them no attention.
Pollsters won’t get me to tell them much, much less the truth. They don’t seem to call me much anymore.
Nov 8 will tell.
Poll “Ajustments” are in place to mask the rigged vote that will give Hillary a 1% point win. They are setting it up for the Trumpsters to roll over and rally behind Hillary as the FIRST WOMAN PRESIDENT! I will not accept a Hillary president—she will make Obama look good. We must be ready to launch a Tea Party like movement to stop the Progressives and Soros from buying the White House.
I hope they don’t pull another Gore.
“... The only way she wins is if Trump self destructs.>>”
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Or unchecked massive voter fraud.....
Those polls may well be reflecting the expectations of vote manipulation rather than just respondents’ answers to the pollster.
“Pray without ceasing.” ! Thessalonians 5:16)
“On Facebook, I’ve noticed that all my Liberal family members attach Trump...but they show no support for Hillary.”
Yep. NO support for Hillary, no lists of accomplishments, no positive memes posted about her, no praise whatsoever.
Very telling, but they’ll STILL vote for her. I don’t ‘do’ politics over there; I pretend to be the biggest politically uninformed DOLT you’d ever want to meet. ;)
On the other hand, what if current polls accurately predict Trump’s loss? How can we find out?
*deep, deep thought*
I know! Let’s hold an election! How does early November work out for everyone?
Expect massive vote fraud.
The Democrats have been fighting very hard for it for years, starting with the “Motor Voter” bill and continuing through refusing to allow a requirement for valid IDs when voting. Now they are registering illegal aliens (invading barbarians) to vote fraudulently.
Oh I do expect it...My hope is that Trump will get more votes to overcome the fraud....
They always say it’s about turnout, above or below normal for a party.
In 2012 the Dems engineered excessive turnout, ensuring an easy, above poll expectation win for zero.
This cycle could go the other way. That is, people who have not turned out in a while going for Trump that are under the polling radar. I doubt SHE has a hidden supporter group.
Hi.
“I doubt SHE has a hidden supporter group.”
She does, the dead.
5.56mm
What, exactly, is your problem? You pop in to the occasional thread (half a dozen or so times since June) and repeatedly drop this ‘bombshell’ that Trump is going to lose.
Are you auditioning for the role of concern troll? Or are you just trolling for reactions?
And ppl on welfare boost the economy. Nancy told us so.
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