Posted on 09/07/2016 6:35:35 AM PDT by mountn man
The USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times "Daybreak" poll tracks about 3,000 eligible voters until election day, asking on a regular basis about their support for Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump or other candidates as well as their likelihood of actually casting a ballot.
(Excerpt) Read more at graphics.latimes.com ...
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
These polls are all bullsh**
Most recent polling is congealing around the fact that the race is tied with each receiving 40-44%. There clearly is a 15% undecided/loserterian cohort.
From the article you linked:
“We update the data each day based on the weighted average of poll responses over the previous week. That means results have less volatility than some other polls, but also means the poll lags somewhat in responding to major events in the campaign.”
Valiums for my good friends :)
This poll has been the most consistent showing Trump still in the race for a while now
But it is a rolling 7 day poll and you get anomalies in those 7 days. Unusually big day for hillary or Trump.
Five recent polls indicate Trump is up by 2, people were away for labor days so maybe 50 percent haven’t even HEARD of the C for Confidential stuff, the coughing fits, the forgetting her security training etc.
AND the debates haven’t even happened.
We’ll win.
Surely it’s “margin of error.”
Trump is working harder than she is. He should keep on that. She doesn’t have the energy to be president. He does far more stops than she does. She just can’t handle the pace of the job anymore.
Donald does need to show up at Hurricane and Earthquake sites if they let him.
There was one on CNBC showing Trump with a lead and they ‘unskewered it’ showing Hillary up 2 points.
It’s all disinformation. They want to keep Congressional Republicans and money people away from Trump.
I never believed the Hillary plus 10 polls either right after the convention.
Polls go by people who voted in previous elections. There are millions who haven’t voted in years or ever who will turn out for Trump.
Conversely, Hillary isn’t going to get massive black turnout like Obama did because she’s white. There’ll be a 20-30% fall off in Dem turnout as you also have to factor in the Bernie voters who absolutely hate her.
Yes, it is.
Don't call me Shirley :)
Good question. Very bad week for Hillary. Very good week for Trump. That leaves only one or two possibilities:
1. Heavy Hillary Advertising Impact.
2. Subtle or Not So Subtle Changes in Polling Methodology by USC/Dornsife.
It should be noted that this poll slowly adds new participants to overall polled population. The makeup of the new participants could also affect the results. That could go either way but it is an opportunity for bias (never our friend) to sneak into the mix.
Polls are not “accurate” when they show what you want and “a bunch of junk designed to sway voters” when they show what you don’t.
They are a tool to judge the current state of a race. A tool, just a tool. And like any complicated tool, you have to know how to read them and what they can and cannot inform you of.
The best way to use polls, especially just the surface number, is as a way to determine trends.
Trump has been trending up almost all of August and there seems to be a slow down in his trend at the start of September.
This isn’t a horrible thing.
Clinton has been hammering the airways with ads and she can barely stay even with Trump. He has some big ad buys in place and the debates are coming up. He is on the stump daily, sharpening his message and practicing speaking in front of hundreds of people at a time. Clinton is still stumbling on the trail and doesn’t come across well.
A close race at this point is causing heartburn and panic in the Clinton camp. She doesn’t have much left to use to pull away from Trump, and Trump is sitting on almost off of his tricks.
We’ll see the trends in the next two weeks, and if Clinton starts to pull back ahead, then Trump needs to up his game. If he starts to pull ahead, I don’t see anything she can do to slow it down at this point.
Sympathy vote. Expect Clinton to be +20 if she dies from the next fit.
More seriously, junk data, raped into an illusion of a tight race to make things interesting and keep the readers going back to the LA Times site ....
Eligible voters? I thought the gold standard was “likely voters” and that that usually favored Republicans.
I thought this poll was likely voters. now it is ‘eligible’ voters... That might be even worse than ‘registered’ voters. Was this a change?
The media (Clinton campaign staff) just can’t seem to understand that she is a goner...finished, over...
...and another one bites the dust...
No doubt the La Slimes has someone making sure Hillary is close or takes the lead again..Hillary campaign Made a call for sure
Doesn’t ring true.
Relax, folks.
I feel like I must be living in some communist or third world country.
ABSOLUTE GOVERNMENT CORRUPTION AND CONTROL
COVERED UP BY AN ENABLING PROPAGANDA MEDIA!!!
Trump is going to continue his upward trend...
If Trump shows even with Hillary, he's well ahead when realistic party affiliation splits are considered, as well as the enthusiasm factor on both sides.
We really need to be more focused on the trends, as opposed to minor fluctuations day-to-day.
This particular poll has been very tight for a couple of weeks now, so I wouldn't be too concerned about a .3 point deficit...
Vote Trump!
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