Posted on 09/07/2016 4:06:31 AM PDT by Trump20162020
Wow. They sure ‘fix’ things.
This is interesting: the other side is now unskewing polls.
Many of the polls have the 2012 turnout assumption baked into them. They’re skewed to begin with.
In the U.S. elections turnout is a big factor. Likely voter polls use screens of one or another sort to distinguish who, among registered voters, will actually vote.
Yay, it’s 2012 again. Donald Trump is now MittRomney and Crooked Hillary is...Obama?
And using 1984 turnout numbers Trump wins with 55%. Next dream.
If I believed that pollsters do skew polls, then I could believe that they are skewing them now to make Trump look better. Hillary’s biggest problem is complacent Dems, and she needs them to be scared of Trump for them to get out and get organizized.
Yeah, we all know Hillary will drive the same black turnout that Obama did /sarc
Pretty much. If pollsters were going to fake anything, they’d be doing it for Trump right now. Then move the polls towards Clinton after the September 26 debate, to manufacture a “Trump blew it; Clinton won” meme.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
The unskewing is totally flawed!
1st Hillary is NO Obama & TRUMP is NO Mitt!!!
End of Story!
Wow, talk about suspending reality. lol
My friend (who used to work for the MN GOP), a never Trumper, seems to think there will be a Latino turnout similar to 2012 black turnout.
Yeah, 2012 turnout does not seem a likely target for either party.
I agree that there are pockets of voters who usually vote D but who will in overwhelming majority go for Trump this year. However, I don't think that will affect the national polls. (Could have huge impact on State level.)
It has been discussed for years what the reduction in response rate has on the reliability of polls. PEW research published an article in 2012 showing that their response rate (actually making an interview) was now down to 9% (nine percent). I have seen another article indicating 8% response rate in 2014.
This is a problem for the pollsters since it makes it more expensive for the pollsters to sample a large enough group. But there is another problem: What if there is a difference between those who reply to the poll and those that don't? That could induce a large, an overwhelming bias in a poll.
Some research has gone in to answer that question, and in data published in WaPo comparing accuracy and response rates in polls between 1999 - 2014 it did not appear that the accuracy had declined, despite the fact that the response rate had gone from just below 35% to below 10%.
However, for the polling companies this is like skating on thin ice. Just because it worked yesterday, and an hour ago, it may not work now!
In some previous threads I noted that if there is such a low response rate then a single percent difference in response rate will cause a large difference in the polling result even though there may be an underlying 50/50 split in the preference for the candidates.
In the old days when the response rates were well above 80% then you needed much larger differences in response rates between candidates to skew your poll. Such large differences may have been picked up elsewhere.
So to this election: It is quite obvious that the media bias has been worse than ever before. One has to go back to the election 1980 to find anything close - and that was not an election which the pollsters remember with fondness.
Now, is it very unlikely that people who are thinking of voting for a candidate that is vilified almost universally are more (and remember we are talking of a difference of a few percent only) reluctant to answer a poll?
I think the answer to that question is pretty obvious, and therefore I am much less interested in polls this election than previous ones.
Hillary gets no where near Obama Black support. Using 2012 turn out models skews the results to Hillary.
No worries, $hill. Just stick around the house and take your Ativan. Huma will handle everything.
So MSNBC admits their own polls are skewed the other way? Who knew?
Why don’t we see 2010 and 2014 turnout. I thinknthose turnouts will be more accurate as a model.
media nothing but lying scumbags.
No wonder why their numbers are tanking.
which is why these idiots trying to say GA is a now a swing state is B/S
GA never went to obama with all the blacks there, so why would GA go to Clinton when blacks are not happy about her.
Looks like Mika was busy last night.
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