Posted on 08/21/2016 4:10:43 PM PDT by cba123
I'm not even going to quote from this story.
You can link to it, if you want.
I would like to say however, that the media is completely in an anti-Trump apoplecty recently, and people are sick of it.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
National race is changing, but the state races are not?
What horsefeathers.
Because Trump is campaigning nationally and Hillary has been running ads non-stop in swing states only for months.
Makes as much sense as “global warming is setting records” while global temperatures haven’t increased in eighteen years.
Normally, state polls lag national polls.
New PA poll has trump +5
even for that its 538, the winner of the national popular vote (either plurality or majority) has won the US POTUS election 53 out of 57 times in America’s history (that’s better than 90%). Even then, the times in which the pop vote and electoral vote winners have diverged are 3 out of 4 times (1824, 1876, 1888, 2000) decided by 3% nationally (3% is almost always within MoE in most polls) or less. 1824 is an example but a bad one because the popular vote wasn’t widely counted until 1828 onwards.
In short, if Trump wins the most votes, he’s most likely POTUS.
Looking at Iowa and Nevada, and the fact that Trump has been strong in these two states all along, you have to believe he can turn it around in the other swing states. No doubt he dug a hole for himself in FL, NC, VA, OH and PA, but he should be able to turn it around.
I still think he has not pushed is tax cuts enough, especially in FL, where I think for a middle class family and the retired couple on a fixed income, saving $3-4,000 a year is a big deal.
State polls just lag. This is real. This is YUGE. And they are very concerned.
I don’t get the concern about FL. Who cares what polls say? Minion lost by 74,000 votes. Trump only needs to flip 37,000, AND the registrations for GOP are through the roof. Trump makes up those numbers in two counties without winning a single new vote.
All polls are lies. Some more than others.
Figures don't lie, but liars figure.
This is a completely dishonest representation. The reason the state polls are not showing the same tightening is because most of them are older, taken from early August when Clinton’s lead was at it’s peak. The national polls taken over the past week are showing a tightening race, and when new batches of state polls start coming out you’ll see the same thing there.
It’s not necessarily an inconsistency. It could be exactly the same math as the old brain teaser about one baseball player having the highest batting average in each of the two halves of the season, but another player has a higher average for the year.
Someone should ask a MSM talking head how the polls can be so clause when the crowds attending the rallies aren’t. The hag can’t even fill a high school gym and Trump has to turn them away for lack of room. Trump is right, the system is rigged so get ready for a vote fraud massacre against Trump.
“I don’t get the concern about FL. Who cares what polls say?”
Florida’s 29 electoral votes is what the concern is. And Obama won the state twice. When I see Trump running some ads here and I see a poll showing Trump winning the state I will rest a bit easier. If Trump loses Florida, he will lose the election. There is no reasonable scenario that gets him to 270 without Florida.
Yep.
The difference is her advertising in the swing states.
But that kind of support is soft and temporary.
Very disingenuous article.
State polls ALWAYS lag national polls. One of the main reasons is that they are conducted much less frequently.
There is nothing surprising about this whatsoever. I can only guess 538 is pretending it is so they can try to sell the narrative of Hillary’s inevitability a little bit longer.
“No doubt he dug a hole for himself in FL, NC, VA, OH and PA”
No, he didn’t. None of the things that our irredeemably corrupt and depraved media and political classes have thought would hurt him have actually caused damage.
In elections past, the two seem to lag each other as well. Usually, when one starts moving, the other tends to follow - eventually.
These phony polls are being announced to mask the voter fraud in November. If Hillary’s poll numbers lagged 5-10% behind, and then she came up with a solid win, it would look suspicious. They plan on rigging this election just as Obana did in 2012.
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