New York Times' Dire Warning About Polling Accuracy (rutt rohh)

zero hedge ^ | 8-17-2016 | Tyler Durden

[ak267]

As I demonstrated in yesterday’s article, How Bloomberg Spun its Own Poll Data to Make Hillary Clinton Seem Inevitable, the media is intentionally spinning poll results at best, and completely fabricating them at worst.

While that’s bad enough, there are also some deep, fundamental problems which plague any attempts to conduct accurate polling in 2016. Cliff Zukin, professor of public policy and political science at Rutgers University and a past president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, wrote about many of these issues in a 2015 New York Times opinion piece titled, What’s the Matter With Polling?

[Don Corleone]

Hillary can’t fill a high school gym while Trump can’t find a venue large enough to hold his supporters.. You figure who’s lying.

[ransomnote]

When Bush defeated Kerry, the left said that fake voting was to blame because the votes did not align with exit polls. They of course ignored the fact that the left feels entitled to public abuse as inferior anyone not voting for their candidate - it seemed obvious that no one wanted to admit to exit polls that they voted for Bush.

So, if the vote goes to Clinton, then libs are fine with it and if the vote goes to Trump, then they will cite more accurate “exit polls” as “proof” yet again, that they wuz robbed.

[Col Frank Slade]

They are starting to get very nervous.

The scam polling cat is out of the bag.

[Trump Girl Kit Cat]

So NOW the NY Times and LA Times are WARNING about polls WTH!!!! These campaigns have in house polling data don’t they ???? They MUST know the truth!!!

[LouieFisk]

“The scam polling cat is out of the bag.”
==
They’re laying the groundwork for an “unexpected” swing excuse on why they got things so wrong.

[dontreadthis]

I always enjoy reading Tyler Durden

[Trump Girl Kit Cat]

Trump is asking for volunteers to do poll watching, he has hired 7,000 attorneys to take care of ANY discrepancies nation wide!!!! There are 180,000 polling places nation wide so WE NEED to volunteer there are numbers directly to attorneys for each area volunteers are to call!!! Freepers get onto Trumps website and VOLUNTEER!!!!!!!

[Grampa Dave]

Pollsters today are like the buggy whip makers in the early 1900’s, facing economic devastation because they can’t poll many people. They are in a losing battle with social media.

Many of the so called pollsters have been Democrat Operatives for decades going back to when they predicted Carter would beat Reagan.

Now, they are trying to compete with cell phones, social media and the problem of less landline phones.

More and more people on both ends of the age spectrum do not have landline phones. They only have cell phones.

Does anyone with a cell phone ever answer any unknown numbers and specifically any 800 #’s?
Probably not.

We use no more robocalls on our two land lines. Zero pollsters have gotten through since we started using no more robocalls, 2 plus years ago.

None of our voting age relatives have received a call from any pollster this election. That is 20+ Trump voters.

Then, there is this on social media versus polls:
Social Media Patterns Show Trump Is Looking at a Landslide Victory

Gateway Pundit ^ | Aug 7th, 2016 | Jim Hoft
Posted on 8/7/2016, 8:32:37 AM by detective

Current polls show the race for President is much tighter than it really is. Ann Coulter warned us years ago in her bestseller Slander that Democrats and the liberal media always use polls to manipulate and discourage conservatives from voting. Thanks to social media there is more and more evidence that the polls are way off and if things stay as they are, Trump will win in a landslide!

It’s evident that, Hillary has a hard time filling a Union Hall or high school gym while Trump regularly turns people away from his stadium and arena venues.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3457347/posts

A final question have you or any Trump voters, you know, actually been polled this year?

[dirtboy]

I only have a mobile phone and I don’t answer any number I don’t recognize. I figure if it’s important, they’ll leave a message and a call-back number.

[combat_boots]

I have

[Rockpile]

I know for certain that polling results show that Donald Trump
is finished here in August 2015.

The likely candidates will be Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush.

News Cartel/ You Must Believe Us Survey
3.5 % margin of error.

[plain talk]

So, if the vote goes to Clinton, then libs are fine with it and if the vote goes to Trump, then they will cite more accurate “exit polls” as “proof” yet again, that they wuz robbed.

True but to be fair I have seen the same thing thing happen around here in reverse. In any event this NYT article is correct in that building election projections around dialing up people via dinosaur landlines is (and has been) antiquated. It also makes it harder for dems to know how many extra votes they must steal. This is the real reason the dems will demand better polling methods.

[Grampa Dave]

You are the first.

Where you called on a land line or cell phone?

Who polled you?

Thanks

[MaxistheBest]

So Bloomberg decided to put a gun to the head of the people who said they wouldn’t vote...amazing

[combat_boots]

There’ve been two calls, IIRC.

Both were land line based. One was automated, one live person.

[Sarah Barracuda]

Its because the polls have been bogus and they know it..to save face as it gets closer to closer to election day all of a sudden it will show Trump in the lead

[Osage Orange]

I’m pretty sure 98% of folks here in the U.S.A. think the same way....

[Grampa Dave]

Did they call you on your landline?

Thanks

[Timpanagos1]

The probability of you being polled for a national political survey is 00000428%

In that poll, the Margin of Error for that poll would be 3.5%.