Posted on 02/02/2016 4:11:20 PM PST by springwater13
Actually Trump spent very little and came out with one less delegate against the vaunted Cruz ground game and a state that’s in wheelhouse. It’s not about the headlines, which are fleeting, it’s about the delegate count at the end of the run. NH is next.
Iowa was one of his weaker states.
http://freerepublic.com/focus/news/3378750/posts?page=22#22
Now as I pointed out, this is from polling data collected over several months. Cruz held a lead in Iowa even at the time, however the Western states were led mostly by Carson.
Carson has faded since then.
I really don’t know who might benefit more - Trump or Cruz.
He spent perhaps $20mm less than the other candidates and has only 1 less delegates than the leader.
Its a marathon and not a foot race and if Trump maintains this pace, he will win.
How did Rubio get the same number of delegates as Trump?
What exactly is the ground game...someone comes and forces you out the door?
Your own prediction had Trump coming in 1st and Cruz in 3rd. But Trump was never going to win.
the son of the preacher man always does.
What a bunch of rubes those Christians are, huh?
FWIW, Cruz never had much of a chance in NH, and unlike the Trump supporters, I'll freely admit it. NH is a totally different demographic. It's the kind of state where guys like Kasich and Christie will do well before they bow out. NH appeals to moderates. I'm sure Trump will do fine.
I am saving this for next Wednesday when you are whining because you will be. See ya then.
Take a look at this map
https://www.iagopcaucuses.com/#/state
Donald Trump can stay in for as long as he wants for all I care! The map shows the REAL story. Trump dings Cruz in the rural areas but not enough to get an overall statewide advantage. It’s almost a tradeoff in the small populated areas. But in the Urban areas such as Des Moines and Davenport where the more moderate Republicans are, Trump underperformed but was clearly getting his votes of Establishment voters that kept Rubio from racking up an Establishment margin in the area of that state. Cruz’s totals in Polk/Scott Counties were the same as the conservative canddiate before. Trump was clearly hurting Rubio much more than Cruz.
If these 3 are still in at SC, Cruz will win the same way. Myrtle Beach and Charleston are the most “moderate” Republican areas in the state. Based on IA, Rubio won’t rack up the Establishment margins in these areas needed to win SC thanks to Trump. But Trump won’t be able to get a big enough advantage over Cruz in the more conservative parts along the I-85 corridor and in the low country.
As for NH, Cruz doesn’t need to win. He just neeeds to finish strong leading into SC. His best chance is to consolidate the liberty/Tea Party voters which is good enough for about 20%. It could be good enough for 2nd if Rubio doesn’t consolidate the Establishment Vote, or 3rd at worst. And if Trump slides AND Rubio fails to consolidate the Establishment vote, then Ted DOES have a chance in NH.
Huh? I never crowed that Cruz was going to schlong Trump in NH. I’ll stipulate right now that Trump will win NH by a healthy margin. It’s a state where a guy like Kasich can come in second. Trump will do very well given the NH demographic. No need to tell me what I already know. But thanks just the same.
Agreed, their presence in the race is just one more GOPe attempt to steal the nomination. They hope they can get enough delegates under these candidates to toss to rube or Yeb! at the convention and put one of them over the top.
“8 - Cruz, 7 - Trump, 6 - Rubio, 1 - Carson, Paul, Kasich, Bush, Fiorina, Huckabee, 0 - Christie, Santorum”
It appears your numbers are wrong.
https://www.google.com/#q=iowa+caucus+delegates&eob=R/2/short/m.03s0w/
Cruz 8
Trump 7
Rubio 7
Carson 3
Paul 1
Bush 1
Fiorina 1
Kasich 1
Huckabee, Christie, Santorum, Gilmore 0
We haven’t had New Hampshire yet. What I am talking about is the bashing over Trump being number 1 next week and Cruz supporters being very bitter about it. It may not happen but it might. That is all nothing really to it really.
So basically, Cruz blew his wad on Iowa
Truth is
Carson said he needed to go home and get his clothes in Florida before going to New Hampshire.
That was at best absurd and at worst a cover for giving up.
Carson would rather attack Cruz than either cnn or admit responsibility.
For you it’s a desire to paint Cruz in the worst light so you can feel better about trump losing.
Does that help?
That was probably the most impressive fact of the Cruz campaign. I do not recall anyone ever opposing the king corn lobby in Iowa going anywhere. The big ethanol/ADM agrichemical farm equipment manufacturers have certainly never seen anything like what Cruz did to their power base.
Cruz just beat a very determined machine. But like most victories, Iowa is little more than a ritualistic opportunity to crow a bit and beat ones chest in victory.
former Iowan
Real estate smart does not translate into other areas all the time. Take Trump Airlines for example.
I was at the Trump rally in NH today. You obviously don’t know what defeated sounds like.
Why are Trump supporters who were bragging that Trump was gong to dominate Iowa because of the hordes of people he was bringing in now are saying he did awesome for someone who had almost no one there?
“Carson said he needed to go home and get his clothes in Florida before going to New Hampshire.”
God forbid a man would want to prepare for the next leg of his journey by getting/replenishing ... OMG!!! ... clothes! Absolutely “absurd”. I mean, really...
Iowa is over and will not be repeated. These other states don’t vote for the church lady.
My advice to Trump is forget Cruz and start attacking Rubio. He is going to be the threat going forward.
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