NFL playoff picture: FINAL WEEK

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[ETL]

NFL playoff picture: FINAL WEEK

If the season ended now:

AFC first-round byes: (1) Patriots; (2) Broncos

AFC wild card: (6) Jets at (3) Bengals; (5) Chiefs at (4) Texans

NFC first-round byes: (1) Panthers; (2) Cardinals

NFC wild card: (6) Seahawks at (3) Packers; (5) Vikings at (4) Redskins

Only two playoff spots remain as the regular season enters its final week.

The Denver Broncos claimed an AFC postseason berth by beating the Cincinnati Bengals and knocked the Bengals out of the running for the No. 1 seed. The Broncos still can finish with the top seed but also could drop all the way to No. 6. A win, however, would give Denver a first-round bye.

Cincinnati's loss also kept the Indianapolis Colts barely alive in the AFC South race. The Colts still need a win and Houston Texans loss and a crazy amount of help to overtake the Texans.

The New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers are fighting for the last spot, though the Jets could climb to the No. 5 seed if they win and the Broncos or Kansas City Chiefs lose.

In the NFC, we now know all six postseason teams after the Minnesota Vikings clinched a playoff berth with a win Sunday night. The North title will be decided by the Vikings' trip to Green Bay in next Sunday night's game.

Both the Carolina Panthers and New England Patriots failed to clinch No. 1 seeds but still can with wins next week or losses by the Arizona Cardinals and Broncos, respectively.

(x=clinched playoff berth, y=clinched division, z=clinched first-round bye; all times Eastern)

z-1. New England Patriots (12-3, East champion; L 20-26 at Jets; @Mia, 1 CBS)
•Clinched a first-round playoff bye because of a better record (4-1) than the Bengals (2-3) in common games (against the Bills, Broncos, Steelers and Texans).
•Have not clinched the No. 1 seed because of a Week 12 loss to the Broncos.
•Would clinch the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage through the AFC playoffs with a win/tie at the Dolphins or a Broncos loss/tie to the Chargers.

x-2. Denver Broncos W 20-17 vs. Bengals; SD, 4:25 CBS)
•Clinched a playoff berth and lead the Bengals for the No. 2 seed because of a win against the Bengals.
•Would clinch the West with a win/tie against the Chargers or a Chiefs loss/tie to the Raiders.
•Would clinch a first-round playoff bye with a win or a Bengals loss to the Ravens plus a Chiefs loss/tie.
•Would clinch the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage through the AFC playoffs with a win and a Patriots loss to the Dolphins.

y-3. Cincinnati Bengals (11-4, North champion; L 17-20 at Broncos; Bal, 1 Fox)
•Clinched the North on Sunday when the Steelers lost at the Ravens.
•Would clinch a first-round playoff bye with a win against the Ravens and Broncos loss to the Chargers.

4. Houston Texans (8-7, South leader; W 34-6 at Titans; Jax, 1 CBS)
•Have not clinched the South because the Colts still could win a tiebreaker on strength of schedule after the Broncos won Monday.
•Would clinch the South and No. 4 seed with a win/tie against the Jaguars or Colts loss/tie to the Titans, or Bengals win/tie against the Ravens or Jets win/tie at the Bills or Saints win/tie at the Falcons or Broncos loss/tie to the Chargers or Dolphins loss/tie to the Patriots (to clinch a better strength of victory), or a Chiefs win/tie against the Raiders plus Steelers loss/tie at the Browns (to clinch a better strength of schedule), or either a Chiefs win or Steelers loss plus a better combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and allowed than the Colts (which is likely because they have scored 6 more and allowed 77 fewer points than the Colts).

x-5. Kansas City Chiefs (10-5, top wild card; W 17-13 vs. Browns; Oak, 4:25 Fox)
•Clinched a playoff berth with a win against the Browns and Steelers loss at the Ravens because of a Week 7 win against the Steelers.
•Lead the Jets for the No. 5 seed because of conference record (9-2 to 7-4).
•Would clinch the West and No. 3 seed with a win against the Raiders and a Broncos loss to the Chargers because of division record (5-1 to 3-3).
•Cannot clinch a first-round playoff bye because of a Week 4 loss to the Bengals.

6. New York Jets (10-5, bottom wild card; W 26-20 vs. Patriots; @Buf, 1 CBS)
•Would clinch a playoff berth with a win/tie at the Bills or Steelers loss/tie at the Browns.
•Would lose a tie to the Steelers because of a worse record (3-2) than the Steelers (4-1) in common games (against the Browns, Colts, Patriots and Raiders) but win a tie with the Broncos because of conference record (8-4 to 7-5).
•Would be eliminated with a loss at the Bills and Steelers win at the Browns.

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6; L 17-20 at Ravens; @Cle, 1 CBS)
•Would clinch a playoff berth with a win at the Browns and a Jets loss at the Bills because of a better record (4-1) than the Jets (3-2) in common games (against the Browns, Colts, Patriots and Raiders).
•Would be eliminated with a loss/tie at the Browns or Jets win/tie at the Bills.

Indianapolis Colts (7-8; W 18-12 at Dolphins; Ten, 1 CBS)
•Would clinch the South and No. 4 seed with a win against the Titans and Texans loss to the Jaguars and Bengals loss to the Ravens and Jets loss at the Bills and Saints loss at the Falcons and Broncos win against the Chargers and Dolphins win against the Patriots and Chiefs loss to the Raiders and Steelers win at the Browns.
•Would be eliminated unless it wins the strength of schedule tiebreaker (Broncos/Steelers to Chiefs/Bengals) or improves its conference standing in points scored and allowed.

z-1. Carolina Panthers (14-1, South champion; L 13-20 at Falcons; TB, 4:25 Fox)
•Have clinched a first-round playoff bye.
•Would clinch the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage through the NFC playoffs with a win/tie against the Buccaneers or Cardinals loss/tie to the Seahawks.

z-2. Arizona Cardinals (13-2, West champion; W 38-8 vs. Packers; Sea, 4:25 Fox)
•Clinched a first-round playoff bye Sunday with a win against the Packers.
•Would clinch the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage through the NFC playoffs with a win against the Seahawks and a Panthers loss to the Buccaneers because of conference record (11-1 to 10-2).

x-3. Green Bay Packers (10-5, North leader; L 8-38 at Cardinals; Min, 8:30 NBC)
•Would clinch the North and No. 3 seed with a win/tie against the Vikings. Would play host to the Vikings again if the Seahawks win, or the Seahawks if Seattle loses/ties.
•Would be the No. 5 seed and visit the Redskins with a loss to the Vikings because of a Week 2 win against the Seahawks.

y-4. Washington Redskins (8-7, East champion; W 38-24 at Eagles; @Dal, 1 Fox)
•Clinched the East and No. 4 seed with a win Saturday at the Eagles.
•Would play host to the Packers if the Packers lose to the Vikings, the Vikings if they lose and the Seahawks lose/tie (or the Vikings-Packers tie), or the Seahawks if the Seahawks win and Vikings lose.

x-5. Minnesota Vikings (10-5, top wild card; W 49-17 vs. Giants; @GB, 8:30 NBC)
•Clinched a playoff berth with a win against the Giants.
•Would clinch the North, No. 3 seed and wild-card game against the Seahawks with a win at the Packers.
•Would be the No. 5 seed and visit the Redskins with loss and Seahawks loss/tie

x-6. Seattle Seahawks (9-6, bottom wild card; L 17-23 vs. Rams; @Ari, 4:25 Fox)
•Clinched a playoff berth because of a better record (4-1) than the Falcons (2-3) in common games (against the Cowboys, 49ers, Panthers and Vikings).
•Would clinch the No. 5 seed and a wild-card game at the Redskins with a win at the Cardinals and Vikings loss at the Packers because of a Week 13 win against the Vikings.
•Would clinch the No. 6 seed and a wild-card game at the Vikings with a Packers loss to the Vikings because of a Week 2 loss to the Packers.
•Would clinch the No. 6 seed and a wild-card game at the Packers with a loss/tie and Vikings loss/tie.

---

AFC eliminated teams: Oakland Raiders (7-8), Buffalo Bills (7-8), Jacksonville Jaguars (5-10), Miami Dolphins (5-10), Baltimore Ravens (5-10), San Diego Chargers (4-11), Cleveland Browns (3-12), Tennessee Titans (3-12)

NFC eliminated teams: Atlanta Falcons (8-7), St. Louis Rams (7-8), Detroit Lions (6-9), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-9), New Orleans Saints (6-9), Chicago Bears (6-9), Philadelphia Eagles (6-9), New York Giants (6-9), San Francisco 49ers (4-11), Dallas Cowboys (4-11)

[MUDDOG]

Given the problems with back-up QBs this year, it’s amazing to realize that the Colts had different starting QBs in 1967 and 1968, Unitas and Morrall, who each won the MVP in their year.

They also finished 11-1-2 in ‘67, and didn’t make the playoffs.

[Nuc 1.1]

One has to wonder what the algorithm fo this, NFL Play Off placements.

[OddLane]

Worst personnel decision of the year.

As a Bills fan, I tried to get behind him, but knew it was a terrible choice.

Why couldn't they have hired Mike Smith instead of the NYJ rejects?

[Ouderkirk]

I have given up on the Bills, and football in general. I rarely watch, nor do I listen to it on the radio. Too many disappointments, too much egotistical BS from overpaid, under-performing, functional illiterates who can barely speak coherent English.

[BraveMan]

Vikings are going down!

[maggief]

:D

[BeadCounter]

So, the live thread? I see the Bills are defeating the Jets, I think the Jets really need this to go into the Wildcard playoffs.

14-0 Buffalo if this TD holds up.

[dfwgator]

Well Cowboys fans there’s still hope, after all TCU was down 31-0....BWAHAHHAHAHAHA!

[ETL]

For the Colts to make the playoffs, ALL 9 of the following teams (on the left) have to win.
I calculated the odds of this happening, using the simple formula, 2^n, where 2 represents the 50-50 probability of a Win vs Loss, and n represents the number of events, in this case, games.

And so 2^n = 2^9 (2 to the 9th power) = 512!!...

That’s 511 to 1 !!! (that all 9 win as needed)

Of course this is based on mere mathematical probability, treating the situation as if it were flips of a coin, heads vs tails.

Colts vs Titans

Jags vs Houston

Bills vs Jets

Ravens vs Bengals

Falcons vs Saints

Dolphins vs Pats

Steelers vs Browns

Raiders vs Chiefs (4pm)

Broncos vs Chargers (4pm)

[ETL]

In other words, it would be like heads coming up 9 straight times in a row! Or, similarly, tails.

[ETL]

...and the odds of 9 straight heads (or tails) in a row are 511-1 !!! There are 512 possible combination outcomes in 9 flips of the coin, but only all heads, or all tails, would win.

[ETL]

If you guys are interested in hot rods and customs, check out this thread I posted yesterday.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3378937/posts

[MUDDOG]

Nice!

I just heard them say on ESPN radio that the odds were “less than one percent,” and you’re calculating 2/10ths of one percent.

[ETL]

But my calculations are based on pure mathematical probability, treating each game as if were a heads or tails equal chance of either team winning.

BTW, of the 7 of the 9 games taking place now (1pm games), 6 of them are winning. Of course there’s a long time to go with the 2nd halves about to start. Houston is up 17 at the half vs Jax. That is the only game of the 7 taking place now that is not ‘cooperating’.

[MUDDOG]

You do have to figure that ESPN used different probabilities per game in their calculation.

But to guesstimate the upper bound simply by using .6 for each game, and raising to the ninth power, gives 1% overall.

[BeadCounter]

Thanks, nice, along with old motorcycles, motorbikes (Hornet) or even old bikes.

[ETL]

You do have to figure that ESPN used different probabilities per game in their calculation.

What I mean is the odds of a particular team winning their game depends on how good they are vs their opponent. It's rarely a 50-50 chance like in flipping a coin, heads or tails. For example, the Patriots are probably pretty big favorites vs Miami.

[MUDDOG]

Exactly. A different win/loss probability for each game.

[dfwgator]

Just
Ended
The
Season

[BeadCounter]

Okay, all teams in and all the teams out is finalized, Pittsburgh in, I can’t believe the other thread is not discussing this more. I guess they are jockeying for position.

Bills end up 8-8, so .500 and eliminate the Jets.

None of the teams laid big goose eggs this year, Cleveland and Tennessee 3-13 are the worse records.