[2ndDivisionVet]

Look up 1860.

[wagglebee]

Trump could break his pledge and run 3rd party if he isn't nominated and make major waves. Sanders doesn't have the money to run an effective 3rd party campaign and it's doubtful that he could raise it.

Big donors will NEVER give money to a 3rd party candidate, they are primarily paying for political access and they won't risk it.

[zerosix]

The fourth candidate would not be Trump, it would be JEB running on the RINO Party banner!

[Gen.Blather]

A couple of states have passed spoiler laws. If somebody runs for a party nomination and loses then those states won’t put them on the ballot as an independent. That was the importance of Trump declaring he would not be an independent.

[PAR35]

They will be like the Krupp and Thyssen. They’ll think they can control him.

[kidd]

1) Clinton drops out due to “health reasons”
2) Biden enters. Becomes the establishment choice for the Dems.
3) Sanders runs as an independent.
4) Cruz and Trump do not seem to criticize each other. I believe they’ve formed a team. One wins and supports the other. No third party for either.
5) Carson, Fiorina and Rubio each take their turn at 2nd place. Then drop.

Three-way race.

[Parley Baer]

On the Republican side look no further than the recent Alaskan senate contest. Also the recent Mississippi contest. The GOPe plays nasty to win.

[Uversabound]

Anti wall street socialist.

This is a curious phrase to me. How do they eat?

[The_Reader_David]

Either a pick-your-RINO v. Trump v. Clinton v. Sanders race or a Cruz v. Trump v. Clinton v. Sanders race ends with the House of Representatives picking the President from among the top 3 in electoral vote, and the Senate picking the President from among the top 2.

Could be fun, could end up with President and Vice-President hostile to each other like back in the pre-12th Amendment days.

[ModelBreaker]

“The Money men and Unions who own the Democrat Party are NOT going to allow the Democrats to run Sanders. He is far too dangerous to their crony capitalist looting of the Federal Treasury.”

Nonsense. Bernie talks a good game. But he will keep the crony game going. He’s a socialist. That’s at the core of their philosophy.

[Sam Gamgee]

I sure hope they DO nominate him. When electors see that the Democrats are no longer even pretending to be the center they will abandon their votes.

[x]

If one party splits, it's unlikely that the other one would split as well and throw away a likely victory.

People who really hate a candidate in the primaries might find the nominee looking quite good in comparison to an opponent of the other party, so they find their way home.

An independent moderate candidate isn't ruled out, but if one party makes an unconventional choice or goes out on a limb the other one is likely to play it safe.

Cases in point: with the Republicans split between Roosevelt and Taft the Democrats unite behind Wilson (1912). With the Democrats split between Truman, Wallace, and Thurmond, there wasn't much chance of the Republicans breaking up over the Dewey-Taft split (1948). Republicans weren't crazy about Nixon but they united behind him because the Democrats were too divided to win (1968). Professional politicians and consultants don't get in the way when the other side is destroying itself.

FWIW In 2000, Nader polled better than any 3rd party candidate since Perot. If Buchanan had mounted a serious campaign you could have had a four candidate race. Not in a big way where any candidate had a chance to win, but stronger than usual 3rd and 4rth party challengers could have made the election even more chaotic than it was.