What’s so shocking about that? The whole reason numerous QBs lobbied the NFL to give them more control over the balls the teams used was to give the QBs the kind of balls the liked to play with. So yes, the rule had the benefit they TOLD the competition committee it would have.
And that fumble thing has been totally debunked multiple times. It’s just bad math and stupid thinking. Really, some folks just need to get over it.
He’s already been shown the fumble statistics in the article are a mixture of cherry picking and junk. (Lepton, post #40)
Are these fumble stats "bad math?" "Cherry picking?" Junk stat science? If it's been debunked, by whom? When? Where? Did they use the same variable comparison suggested by two FREEPERs on this thread -- Edzo4 & WinMod70?
Take a look @ what they said:
I wonder if bradys improvement in 2007 had anything to do with having randy moss as a receiver? Instead of the non hall of fame receivers he had before. (Edzo4, post #28)
There are many variables in the game of football, the most significant are talent and preparation. You portend that the only change in the history of Patriots football is the ball. Really? (WinMod70, post #19)
In the above posts, both Edzo4 & WinMod70 suggested that the hyper completion stats Brady had in 07 vs. 06 was due to wide receiver personnel (Edzo mentions Randy Moss, who played full season wise 07 to 09 for Pats); & WinMod mentions how "talent" is a key consideration.
Indeed, personnel is a vitally important variable -- one that can't be understated.
I wanted to see if a personnel study of the Patriot backfield would indeed "debunk" the whole thing. Instead of generic stats flying around, let's just boil this down to specific players and crunch the numbers! (Let's not only apply personnel justifications to Brady's sudden completion % explosion in 2007 -- but to the fumble-free per touch ratio as well.)
There's two ways to do that:
1. You review how Patriot RB did up thru 2006 and then compare it to 2007 & beyond when the NFL changed the footballs supplies' rules.
2. You review how Patriot RB did anytime between 2007 -- 2014 -- as long as you have some Patriot years from that same period.
In both cases above, the player's performance is being measured against himself -- how he did either in a Patriot vs. non-Patriot uniform (#2), or, how he did in the same Patriot uniform on either side of that 2006-2007 divide.
Also, this study then aggregated ALL of those RB stats. In case, somebody might claim that the results could be skewed by including fumble figures from the first two seasons of a player's career, a time when they might be more inclined to fumble, within the second chart below, I segmented those out. (It wound up dropping a couple of "primary" comparison backs into the "marginal" area -- and wound up dropping Danny Woodhead altogether out of the "marginal" category.
Upon reviewing Patriot rosters...which RB qualified for such a case study?
RB who didn't make the "cut" due to not making either of the above criteria:
a. Bolden, Vereen & Ridley didn't play before 07 & haven't played for other teams...certainly, somebody can add them to the future eval list if they sign with other teams.
b. Corey Ridley retired after 06 season.
Who made this case study cut?
Nine Patriot RBs fit the initial criteria; yet I had to place 4 of them in the "marginal" category as having a questionable enough carries for "measurable weight" purposes...their stats might be helpful in reviewing on a "collective" basis, but not so much on a personal comparison.
1. Heath Evans (only 45 carries for NE; yes, no fumbles, in 07-08) vs. 3 fumbles in 119 carries elsewhere
2. Fred Taylor (106 carries, only 1 fumble for 09-10 NE; and yes a better non-fumble ratio than elsewhere ... 26 fumbles in 2428 attempts ... but not significant difference and hard to compare vs. only 106 carries)
3. Lamont Jordan (80 carries, only 1 fumble for 08 NE; not only not enough carries, but this is a slight flip of Taylor the other way in that he didn't fumble much elsewhere -- 8 fumbles, 817 carries...but again not enough significant difference)
4. Danny Woodhead (more of a RB receiver; only 24 carries for '13 chargers...only 35 carries for NE)
That left 5 RBs who have a significant number of carries (over 200 on each side) to serve as the best players to measure:
1. Laurence Maroney (add 07-09 NE, 407 carries vs. 06 NE, '10 Denver, 211 carries)
2. BenJarvus Green-Ellis (08-11 NE, 510 carries vs. 12-13 Cincy, 498 carries)
3. LeGarrette Blount (13-14 NE, 213 carries vs. 10-12 TB & 14 Pit -- played for 2 teams in 14, 491 carries)
4. Kevin Faulk (99-06 NE, 632 carries vs. 07-11 NE, 232 carries)
5. Sammy Morris (07-10 NE, 334 carries vs. 00-06 Buff & Miami + '11 Dallas, 402 carries overall)
So how did this "Case Study" turn out?
(See next post!)
He’s already been shown the fumble statistics in the article are a mixture of cherry picking and junk. (Lepton, post #40)
Are these fumble stats "bad math?" "Cherry picking?" Junk stat science?
| NAME | Years w/Pats | Carries w/Pats | Fumbles as a Pat | Years either w/other team, or w/Pats before '07 | Non-Pat or Early-Pat Carries | Non-Pat or Early-Pat Fumbles | Fumbles Per Touch Comparison -- first # represents time with NE 2007 or after |
| Laurence Maroney | 2007-2009 | 407 | 4 | 2006 Pats + 2010 Broncos | 211 | 2 | 1F per 102 vs. 1F per 106 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 2008-2011 | 510 | 0 | 2012-2013 Bengals | 498 | 5 | Less than 1F per 510 touches vs. 1F per 100 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 2013-2014 | 213 | 3 | 2010-2012 Bucs + 2014 Steelers (was w/2 teams in 2014) | 426 | 9 | 1F per 71 vs. 1F per 47 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2007-2011 | 232 | 2 | 1999-2006 Pats | 632 | 23 | 1F per 116 vs. 1F per 28 |
| Sammy Morris | 2007-2010 | 334 | 4 | 2000-2006 Bills & Dolphins | 402 | 8 | 1F per 84 vs. 1F per 50 |
| 5-Back Sub-Total | 1696 | 13 | 2169 | 47 | 1F in 130 vs. 1F in 46 | ||
| Fred Taylor | 2009-2010 | 106 | 1 | 1998-2008 Jags | 2428 | 26 | 1F in 106 vs. 1F in 93 |
| LaMont Jordan | 2008 | 80 | 1 | 2001-2007, 2009 Jets, Raiders & Broncos | 817 | 8 | 1F per 80 vs. 1F per 102 |
| Heath Evans | 2007-2008 | 45 | 0 | 2001-2005 'Hawks, Dolphins, 2006 Pats & 2009-2010 Saints | 119 | 3 | Less than 1F per 45 vs. 1F per 40 |
| Danny Woodhead | 2011-2012 | 35 | 2 | 2013 Chargers | 24 | 0 | 1F per 18 vs. 1F less than 24 |
| 4-Marginal Backs' Sub-Total | --- | 266 | 4 | --- | 3388 | 37 | 1F in 67 vs. 1F in 92 |
| Total (All 9 backs) | --- | 1962 | 17 | --- | 5557 | 84 | 1F in 115 vs. 1F in 66 |
| NAME | Years w/Pats | Carries w/Pats | Fumbles as a Pat | Years either w/other team, or w/Pats before '07 | Non-Pat or Early-Pat Carries | Non-Pat or Early-Pat Fumbles | Fumbles Per Touch Comparison |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 2010-2011 | 410 | 0 | 2012-2013 Bengals | 498 | 5 | Less than 1F per 410 touches vs. 1F per 100 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2007-2011 | 232 | 2 | 2001-2006 Pats | 401 | 14 | 1F per 116 vs. 1F per 29 |
| Sammy Morris | 2007-2010 | 334 | 4 | 2002-2006 Bills & Dolphins | 146 | 2 | 1F per 84 vs. 1F per 73 |
| 3-Back Sub-Total | --- | 976 | 6 | --- | 1051 | 21 | 1F in 163 vs. 1 in 50 |
| Fred Taylor | 2009-2010 | 106 | 1 | 2000-2008 Jags | 2405 | 23 | 1F per 106 vs. 1F per 104 |
| LaMont Jordan | 2008 | 80 | 1 | 2003-2007 Jets, Raiders, 2009 Broncos | 694 | 4 | 1F per 80 vs. 1F per 174 |
| Heath Evans | 2007-2008 | 45 | 0 | 2004-2006 'Hawks, Dolphins & Pats + 2009-2010 Saints | 93 | 2 | 1F less than 45 vs. 1F per 47 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 2013-2014 | 213 | 3 | 2012 Bucs + 2014 Steelers (was w/2 teams in 2014) | 106 | 1 | 1F per 71 vs. 1F per 106 |
| Laurence Maroney | 2008-2009 | 222 | 4 | 2010 Broncos | 36 | 1 | 1F in 56 vs. 1F in 36 |
| 5-Marginal Backs' Sub-Total | --- | 666 | 9 | --- | 3334 | 31 | 1F per 74 vs. 1F per 108 |
| Total (All 8 backs) | --- | 1642 | 15 | Mostly non-Patriot stats by either ex-Pats or future Pats | 4385 | 52 | 1F in 109 vs. 1F in 84 |
Raw stat source: www.pro-football-reference.com (Chart by Colofornian)
The "case study" revealed that some dramatic stat reversals occurred with several players, especially Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk.
Morris was the top ball-carrier in 2008, and the #2 carrier in 2007 and 2009. Kevin Faulk was the #2 runner in 2008, and #3 in 2007. Blount, too, the #2 back in 2013, also had significantly better non-fumble ratios (a fumble every 47 touches playing elsewhere vs. 71 touches playing with the Pats)
If you recall the fumble figures that jumped off the pages...
...see Dumb Luck: The New England Patriots’ prevention of fumbles is nearly impossible.
...once the rules were changed allowing teams to supply their own balls for offense, the Pats went from averaging a fumble every 42 touches to one every 73 or 74! (And they were doing this sudden transformation, year in, year out at the happenstance year of 2007).
Sammy Morris is a "poster boy" for fleshing this out: With the Bills & Dolphins pre 2007, a fumble every 50 touches. With the Patriots, up to a fumble every 84 touches.
Kevin Faulk seemed to especially become a sudden beneficiary of something magical: He had been playing with the Pats since 1999...for the years 1999 to 2006, Faulk averaged a fumble every 28 touches. Suddenly, from 2007 through 2011, Faulk only fumbled it twice more (once every 116 touches).
Overall, when you concentrate on the 9 backs' totals...the Patriots averaged only 1 fumble every 115 touches -- vs. 1 every 66 touches when these SAME RB were either playing in another uniform or using NFL-supplied balls.
It's not also a situation where a RB simply "improved" as he moved deeper into his career. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is a prime example: Green-Ellis didn't fumble...as in at all in 510 Patriot carries 2007-2011. I mean, that's astounding!
But then Green-Ellis moved over to the Bengals for a few years where he carried the ball about the same # of overall times...and fumbled it 5 times (less than 500 carries).
The Patriots...given their first op to supply their own footballs in 2007...had five RB who carted the ball 399 times. Do you know how often they fumbled?
Even segmenting the first two years out of a RB's career, the figures still showed significant distinctives: 1 fumble every 109 touches for the Pats' RBs...vs. 1 fumble for every 84 touches when they were wearing another uniform or running with NFL-supplied balls.
The one RB that it didn't seem to statistically matter was Laurence Maroney, the Pats' top back in 2007 and 2009. (For him, the case study looked at 2007-2009 vs. his 2006 Pat season and a limited Bronco season in 2010).