He’s already been shown the fumble statistics in the article are a mixture of cherry picking and junk. (Lepton, post #40)
Are these fumble stats "bad math?" "Cherry picking?" Junk stat science?
| NAME | Years w/Pats | Carries w/Pats | Fumbles as a Pat | Years either w/other team, or w/Pats before '07 | Non-Pat or Early-Pat Carries | Non-Pat or Early-Pat Fumbles | Fumbles Per Touch Comparison -- first # represents time with NE 2007 or after |
| Laurence Maroney | 2007-2009 | 407 | 4 | 2006 Pats + 2010 Broncos | 211 | 2 | 1F per 102 vs. 1F per 106 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 2008-2011 | 510 | 0 | 2012-2013 Bengals | 498 | 5 | Less than 1F per 510 touches vs. 1F per 100 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 2013-2014 | 213 | 3 | 2010-2012 Bucs + 2014 Steelers (was w/2 teams in 2014) | 426 | 9 | 1F per 71 vs. 1F per 47 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2007-2011 | 232 | 2 | 1999-2006 Pats | 632 | 23 | 1F per 116 vs. 1F per 28 |
| Sammy Morris | 2007-2010 | 334 | 4 | 2000-2006 Bills & Dolphins | 402 | 8 | 1F per 84 vs. 1F per 50 |
| 5-Back Sub-Total | 1696 | 13 | 2169 | 47 | 1F in 130 vs. 1F in 46 | ||
| Fred Taylor | 2009-2010 | 106 | 1 | 1998-2008 Jags | 2428 | 26 | 1F in 106 vs. 1F in 93 |
| LaMont Jordan | 2008 | 80 | 1 | 2001-2007, 2009 Jets, Raiders & Broncos | 817 | 8 | 1F per 80 vs. 1F per 102 |
| Heath Evans | 2007-2008 | 45 | 0 | 2001-2005 'Hawks, Dolphins, 2006 Pats & 2009-2010 Saints | 119 | 3 | Less than 1F per 45 vs. 1F per 40 |
| Danny Woodhead | 2011-2012 | 35 | 2 | 2013 Chargers | 24 | 0 | 1F per 18 vs. 1F less than 24 |
| 4-Marginal Backs' Sub-Total | --- | 266 | 4 | --- | 3388 | 37 | 1F in 67 vs. 1F in 92 |
| Total (All 9 backs) | --- | 1962 | 17 | --- | 5557 | 84 | 1F in 115 vs. 1F in 66 |
| NAME | Years w/Pats | Carries w/Pats | Fumbles as a Pat | Years either w/other team, or w/Pats before '07 | Non-Pat or Early-Pat Carries | Non-Pat or Early-Pat Fumbles | Fumbles Per Touch Comparison |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 2010-2011 | 410 | 0 | 2012-2013 Bengals | 498 | 5 | Less than 1F per 410 touches vs. 1F per 100 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2007-2011 | 232 | 2 | 2001-2006 Pats | 401 | 14 | 1F per 116 vs. 1F per 29 |
| Sammy Morris | 2007-2010 | 334 | 4 | 2002-2006 Bills & Dolphins | 146 | 2 | 1F per 84 vs. 1F per 73 |
| 3-Back Sub-Total | --- | 976 | 6 | --- | 1051 | 21 | 1F in 163 vs. 1 in 50 |
| Fred Taylor | 2009-2010 | 106 | 1 | 2000-2008 Jags | 2405 | 23 | 1F per 106 vs. 1F per 104 |
| LaMont Jordan | 2008 | 80 | 1 | 2003-2007 Jets, Raiders, 2009 Broncos | 694 | 4 | 1F per 80 vs. 1F per 174 |
| Heath Evans | 2007-2008 | 45 | 0 | 2004-2006 'Hawks, Dolphins & Pats + 2009-2010 Saints | 93 | 2 | 1F less than 45 vs. 1F per 47 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 2013-2014 | 213 | 3 | 2012 Bucs + 2014 Steelers (was w/2 teams in 2014) | 106 | 1 | 1F per 71 vs. 1F per 106 |
| Laurence Maroney | 2008-2009 | 222 | 4 | 2010 Broncos | 36 | 1 | 1F in 56 vs. 1F in 36 |
| 5-Marginal Backs' Sub-Total | --- | 666 | 9 | --- | 3334 | 31 | 1F per 74 vs. 1F per 108 |
| Total (All 8 backs) | --- | 1642 | 15 | Mostly non-Patriot stats by either ex-Pats or future Pats | 4385 | 52 | 1F in 109 vs. 1F in 84 |
Raw stat source: www.pro-football-reference.com (Chart by Colofornian)
The "case study" revealed that some dramatic stat reversals occurred with several players, especially Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk.
Morris was the top ball-carrier in 2008, and the #2 carrier in 2007 and 2009. Kevin Faulk was the #2 runner in 2008, and #3 in 2007. Blount, too, the #2 back in 2013, also had significantly better non-fumble ratios (a fumble every 47 touches playing elsewhere vs. 71 touches playing with the Pats)
If you recall the fumble figures that jumped off the pages...
...see Dumb Luck: The New England Patriots’ prevention of fumbles is nearly impossible.
...once the rules were changed allowing teams to supply their own balls for offense, the Pats went from averaging a fumble every 42 touches to one every 73 or 74! (And they were doing this sudden transformation, year in, year out at the happenstance year of 2007).
Sammy Morris is a "poster boy" for fleshing this out: With the Bills & Dolphins pre 2007, a fumble every 50 touches. With the Patriots, up to a fumble every 84 touches.
Kevin Faulk seemed to especially become a sudden beneficiary of something magical: He had been playing with the Pats since 1999...for the years 1999 to 2006, Faulk averaged a fumble every 28 touches. Suddenly, from 2007 through 2011, Faulk only fumbled it twice more (once every 116 touches).
Overall, when you concentrate on the 9 backs' totals...the Patriots averaged only 1 fumble every 115 touches -- vs. 1 every 66 touches when these SAME RB were either playing in another uniform or using NFL-supplied balls.
It's not also a situation where a RB simply "improved" as he moved deeper into his career. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is a prime example: Green-Ellis didn't fumble...as in at all in 510 Patriot carries 2007-2011. I mean, that's astounding!
But then Green-Ellis moved over to the Bengals for a few years where he carried the ball about the same # of overall times...and fumbled it 5 times (less than 500 carries).
The Patriots...given their first op to supply their own footballs in 2007...had five RB who carted the ball 399 times. Do you know how often they fumbled?
Even segmenting the first two years out of a RB's career, the figures still showed significant distinctives: 1 fumble every 109 touches for the Pats' RBs...vs. 1 fumble for every 84 touches when they were wearing another uniform or running with NFL-supplied balls.
The one RB that it didn't seem to statistically matter was Laurence Maroney, the Pats' top back in 2007 and 2009. (For him, the case study looked at 2007-2009 vs. his 2006 Pat season and a limited Bronco season in 2010).
Wow, I’m almost speechless. Are you getting paid to go in to this kind of depth? If not, I strongly recommend going out and buying a fishing rod or golf clubs.
Go run the numbers again idiot I was referring to your mention of Brady’s completion percentages improving in 07 cause of randy moss
So sorry patriots haters Adam had the story wrong....
McNally was just a fall guy for this NFL-employed scam artist, according to Adam Schefter, ESPN’s well-connected NFL insider. After ESPN put McNally in the crosshairs Tuesday night with a story saying McNally attempted to “introduce” an unapproved football into the game, Schefter winged in Wednesday afternoon with a source saying McNally was, in essence, the fall guy for an NFL employee’s scam to bilk money by stealing footballs. Which were designated for . . . charity.
http://www.csnne.com/blog/patriots-talk/curran-another-black-eye-nfl-deflategate-quest
Just skimming...your evaluations are highly dependent on a few picked RBs. ...but at least you eliminated the original articles’ conflation of Brandon Tate Patriots WR fumbles with those as a Bengals kickoff returner (roughly half the total result, as I recall).
BenJarvis Green Ellis didn’t fumble once in college either. Why did he start fumbling with the Bengals? Maybe because they don’t place such an emphasis? (my Bungals are legendary). Cincinnati placed 16th on average for those years.
Tampa Bay placed 19th (zero Blount fumbles in 2012, and 1 with Steelers). In 2011, Blount had but 3 of his teams 30 fumbles. With 30 fumbles, he was the least of their fumbling troubles...and that was his career high, which he also reproduced in 2013 with the Pats. Atlanta, for example totalled 34 fumbles during that 3 year span.
Sammy Morris’ fumbling is almost entirely based on the effects of one year - 4 of Morris 12 career fumbles were in 2006, with the other 8 evenly divided between the Pats and the other non-pats seasons.
Kevin Faulk only fumbled 4 times as a RB after his first two years...three of which were in 2003.
The rest of the RBs are about the same or improved after they leave the Pats.
On the other hand, the patriots will bench even their lead rusher for fumbling since they’ve had the example of BJGE to show that fumbles can be avoided. After one ‘freebee’, Ridley got benched sometimes for multiple games every time he fumbled....or almost fumbled.
The Patriots have only been tops in fumbles twice from 2007-2014. Atlanta has a similar run of low fumbles being in the top 5 all but two years beginning in 2006 - but placing 11th instead of 4th in 2008, and 9th instead of the Patriots 24th in 2013. Indianapolis, from 2004 to 2010 does likewise. Those are the only two I tracked...but it’s not like the Patriots are first every single year.
On the other hand, New England went to a short passing game with picking up Welker in 2007, and continuing with Edelman and Amendola - where Tom Brady would rather throw an incompletion or low pass than lead his receiver into a big hit, which each keeps his receivers healthier and makes them less likely to fumble.
These are verbal demonstrations of how thin your analysis is. Follow the links I posted to you earlier for several different analyses of the mangling of statistics that Sharps employed.
I’m done. Have fun.