Posted on 10/03/2014 3:01:23 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Holy moly! There's a case of Ebola in the U.S.!
That first reaction was understandable. There's no question the disease is scary. The World Health Organization now estimates that the virus has killed about 70 percent of people infected in West Africa.
The Ebola case in Dallas is the first one diagnosed outside Africa, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Tuesday. And the health care system in Texas didn't quarantine the man right away. He was sick with Ebola — and contagious — for four days before he was admitted to the hospital.
But when you look at health officials responding to the case in Dallas, they seem cool as cucumbers, despite the initial misstep.
"I have no doubt that we will control this importation, or case, of Ebola so that it does not spread widely in this country," said the director of the CDC, Dr. Tom Frieden.
Why is Frieden so sure this virus won't spread beyond a handful of cases?
It boils down to something called "R0."
The reproduction number, or "R nought," is a mathematical term that tells you how contagious an infectious disease is. Specifically, it's the number of people who catch the disease from one sick person, on average, in an outbreak.*
Take, for example, measles. The virus is one of the most contagious diseases known to man. It's R0 sits around 18. That means each person with the measles spreads it to 18 people, on average, when nobody is vaccinated. (When everyone is vaccinated, the R0 drops to essentially zero for measles).
At the other end of the spectrum are viruses like HIV and hepatitis C. Their R0s tend to fall somewhere between 2 and 4. They're still big problems, but they spread much more slowly than the measles.
And that brings us back to Ebola. Despite its nasty reputation, the virus's R0 really isn't that impressive. It typically sits around 1.5 to 2.0.
Even in the current epidemic in West Africa, where the virus has been out of control, each person who has gotten sick has spread Ebola to only about two others, on average.
Why is that?
Many factors contribute to the R0, such as how long you're infectious** and how many virus particles are needed to make another person sick.
But in Ebola's case, the mode of transmission probably helps keep its R0 low. Ebola isn't spread through the air, like the measles or flu. It requires close contact with some bodily fluid, such as blood or vomit, containing the virus.
Now at this point, you're probably thinking, "OK. But an R0 of 2 is nothing to brush off." You're right. R0 of 2 means one person infects two people, who then infect four people, then eight, 16, 32 — the numbers go up fast.
But that isn't likely to happen in a place with a good public health system, like the U.S. Why? Because people with Ebola aren't contagious until they show symptoms.
So to stop the chain of transmission, all health workers in Texas have to do is get the people possibly infected by the sick man into isolation before these people show signs of Ebola.
Then R0 drops to zero. And Texas is free of Ebola.
*We're talking the "basic" R0 here, for all you epidemiologists. So, the R0 that you get when everyone in the population is susceptible to the disease.
**The R0 is integrated over the time that a person is infectious to others. For HIV, this could be years. But for Ebola, that time is only about a week. So even though they have similar R0s, Ebola's infections per unit of time is much higher than HIV's.
This coming from the same group of people, parroting the CDC, that said we had almost a zero chance of Ebola coming here a week ago. Now it's here.
Theses are the same guys that think it's okay to leave the border wide open and to allow the Ebola patients to come here.
According to EMT staff the Ambulance that transferred the Ebola patient was used for 2 days in Dallas before it was taken off the street. Oh and the EMT teams may have it. There is a 3 week wait period. We will know for sure in a month.
I think the Ebola would exhaust our health industry. This pandemic on top of all the other regular Health issues cancer, heart, etc...
Right now in Sierra Leone 5 people are affected every hour according to one source out there. It may be Airborne? I imagine much of the 3rd world countries will eventually come here since our borders are wide open and.... exhaust out heath care industry.
I don't think we can absorb the entire third world? Furthermore, how many of them would bring in more infected people?
A projection for the Ebola outbreak way back when it first started in Africa...
Aug, 2016 - Infected: 6,816,734,096 Dead: 4,090,040,457
and
Now here are the numbers for the USA starting with the guy confirmed in Texas..
Apr, 2016 - Infected: 199,281,489 Dead: 139,497,042 ROI: 2.6
A projection for the Ebola outbreak way back when it first started in Africa...
Ebola spread rate at current trend
Mar, 2014 - Infected: 104 Dead: 62
Apr, 2014 - Infected: 194 Dead: 116
May, 2014 - Infected: 360 Dead: 216
Jun, 2014 - Infected: 670 Dead: 402
Jul, 2014 - Infected: 1,247 Dead: 748
Aug, 2014 - Infected: 2,319 Dead: 1,391
Sep, 2014 - Infected: 4,313 Dead: 2,588
Oct, 2014 - Infected: 8,022 Dead: 4,813
Nov, 2014 - Infected: 14,921 Dead: 8,953
Dec, 2014 - Infected: 27,753 Dead: 16,652
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 51,621 Dead: 30,973
Feb, 2015 - Infected: 96,016 Dead: 57,610
Mar, 2015 - Infected: 178,590 Dead: 107,154
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 332,177 Dead: 199,306
May, 2015 - Infected: 617,849 Dead: 370,709
Jun, 2015 - Infected: 1,149,199 Dead: 689,519
Jul, 2015 - Infected: 2,137,510 Dead: 1,282,506
Aug, 2015 - Infected: 3,975,768 Dead: 2,385,461
Sep, 2015 - Infected: 7,394,928 Dead: 4,436,957
Oct, 2015 - Infected: 13,754,567 Dead: 8,252,740
Nov, 2015 - Infected: 25,583,494 Dead: 15,350,096
Dec, 2015 - Infected: 47,585,299 Dead: 28,551,179
Jan, 2016 - Infected: 88,508,656 Dead: 53,105,193
Feb, 2016 - Infected: 164,626,099 Dead: 98,775,660
Mar, 2016 - Infected: 306,204,545 Dead: 183,722,727
Apr, 2016 - Infected: 569,540,453 Dead: 341,724,272
May, 2016 - Infected: 1,059,345,243 Dead: 635,607,146
Jun, 2016 - Infected: 1,970,382,153 Dead: 1,182,229,292
Jul, 2016 - Infected: 3,664,910,804 Dead: 2,198,946,482
Aug, 2016 - Infected: 6,816,734,096 Dead: 4,090,040,457
-— October 2, 2014 Susupected: 7157 Confirmed: 3953 Dead: 3330<——————source CDC
Now here are the numbers for the USA starting with the guy confirmed in Texas..
Some US Ebola theoretical calculations based on patient Zero
-— Numbers for the USA starting with patient 0 in Texas
Sep, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 3.47
Oct, 2014 - Infected: 12 Dead: 8 ROI: 3.47
Nov, 2014 - Infected: 42 Dead: 29 ROI: 3.47
Dec, 2014 - Infected: 145 Dead: 101 ROI: 3.47
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 503 Dead: 352 ROI: 3.47
Feb, 2015 - Infected: 1,746 Dead: 1,222 ROI: 3.47
Mar, 2015 - Infected: 6,058 Dead: 4,240 ROI: 3.47
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 21,020 Dead: 14,714 ROI: 3.47
May, 2015 - Infected: 72,940 Dead: 51,058 ROI: 3.47
Jun, 2015 - Infected: 253,102 Dead: 177,171 ROI: 3.47
Jul, 2015 - Infected: 878,262 Dead: 614,784 ROI: 3.47
Aug, 2015 - Infected: 3,047,570 Dead: 2,133,299 ROI: 3.47
Sep, 2015 - Infected: 10,575,068 Dead: 7,402,548 ROI:3.47
Oct, 2015 - Infected: 36,695,486 Dead: 25,686,840 ROI:3.47
Nov, 2015 - Infected: 127,333,337 Dead: 89,133,336 ROI: 3.47
This assumes he at least infected 3 in September which is very realistic at the higher R0 of 3.47
If it's 2.60
Sep, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 2.6
Oct, 2014 - Infected: 7 Dead: 5 ROI: 2.6
Nov, 2014 - Infected: 18 Dead: 12 ROI: 2.6
Dec, 2014 - Infected: 46 Dead: 32 ROI: 2.6
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 119 Dead: 83 ROI: 2.6
Feb, 2015 - Infected: 309 Dead: 216 ROI: 2.6
Mar, 2015 - Infected: 803 Dead: 562 ROI: 2.6
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 2,088 Dead: 1,462 ROI: 2.6
May, 2015 - Infected: 5,430 Dead: 3,801 ROI: 2.6
Jun, 2015 - Infected: 14,117 Dead: 9,882 ROI: 2.6
Jul, 2015 - Infected: 36,703 Dead: 25,692 ROI: 2.6
Aug, 2015 - Infected: 95,429 Dead: 66,800 ROI: 2.6
Sep, 2015 - Infected: 248,115 Dead: 173,681 ROI: 2.6
Oct, 2015 - Infected: 645,100 Dead: 451,570 ROI: 2.6
Nov, 2015 - Infected: 1,677,259 Dead: 1,174,082 ROI: 2.6
Dec, 2015 - Infected: 4,360,874 Dead: 3,052,612 ROI: 2.6
Jan, 2016 - Infected: 11,338,273 Dead: 7,936,791 ROI: 2.6
Feb, 2016 - Infected: 29,479,510 Dead: 20,635,657 ROI: 2.6
Mar, 2016 - Infected: 76,646,727 Dead: 53,652,709 ROI: 2.6
Apr, 2016 - Infected: 199,281,489 Dead: 139,497,042 ROI: 2.6
http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2014/08/deader-guide-to-ebola.html
…h/t zerohedge poster llimacon…(here)...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-03/why-americas-not-ready-ebola-outbreak-1-photo?page=6
That you for the numbers.
While in the US we have “Better” sanitation and protocols than in Africa, we have another major problem.
Flu season is fast approaching. How many people are going to be running to the hospital with “Ebola” like symptoms that are turned away with the “just the flu” ?
How many people are NOT going to go to the hospital with “just the flu” ?
Your numbers could be off by many orders of magnitude.
As those countries collapse... All the infected Ebola immigrants will come here and flood our Health Industry.
Remember our borders are wide open, and they can now fly here with no ID.
Before they get identified they will be in Airports, malls, etc and because it can’t be detected up to 23 days... It will be wide spread before we know it.
NPR = government socialist mouthpiece.
Let common sense reign here, not propaganda.
All 5 people in the taxi with the terminal infected pregnant woman, including the guy in Dallas, ended up infected themselves. Sounds pretty easily transmitted to me.
I understand your point regarding our open borders, but I don’t think we could handle an outbreak in the US even if we shut down flights today.
If “Patient zero” has been here for a week or so, how many others have already entered ?
I would expect the outbreaks to pop up in cities like Washington DC, New York, Miami and maybe Chicago. Dallas would not have been where I thought it would being. Considering the sheer numbers of international travelers and their most likely final destination.
I suspect we may find out tomorrow about the two “possible” Ebola patients in two separate hospitals in the DC area.
If they announce the all clear at Howard University and Shady Grove hospital over the weekend, one, will you believe them, two, will it prompt others to take their flu symptoms less seriously ?
Nailed it. Ebola is extremely virulent and spreads much like a cold or flu. Somebody coughs or sneezes that has Ebola and you can bet there's ebola virus by the tons in that "bodily fluid" being expelled from the mouth.
How can they project HIV, since it only comes from blood-blood contact, or *sshole contact?
A link to this thread has been posted on the Ebola Surveillance Thread
And sending home US citizens and Europeans when they got the disease? The message that gives to Africans is that they weren't really being cured in Africa, and if they want to recover, they too should go to the US or Europe for care.
Nobody's talking about what is going to happen when Ebola gets into refugee camps and all of the other places where safety nets and stable govs have been destroyed by our gov's recreational war mongering.
looking at it from a human viewpoint (some real people who have families who love them are going to die and it didn't need to happen), it still begs as to why the ';experts" are being so nonchalant.
Pigs are not humans, nor even primates. They get a respiratory infection with Ebola. Primates only get a blood infection.
You cannot look at the symptoms of a disease in one species and make any conclusion whatsoever about symptoms in a different species.
An example of how viruses behave differently between species is the herpes B virus. In monkeys, it causes minimal to no symptoms. In humans, it is fatal. Researchers who work with monkeys must wear full PPE to avoid getting that disease, even if the monkeys look perfectly healthy.
The problem with this graphic is that the survival rates for measles and mumps are far higher than that of Ebola.
Measles is a lot more fatal, because a lot more people get it. According to WHO numbers, In 2012, there were 122 000 measles deaths globally – about 330 deaths every day or 14 deaths every hour. That means that every 10 days, more people die of measles than have died of Ebola between December and October.
A disease that is not as lethal, but is highly contagious can cause many more deaths than a disease like Ebola that is highly lethal but minimally contagious. Prior to measles vaccinations, several hundred people died of measles every year in the US. Mumps is not as fatal, but can also cause serious disability. Yet anti-vax idiots are working really hard to bring back mumps and measles, as well as many other deadly diseases.
Just like we see Ebola's sister, Marburg pop up on occasion since it was imported into the US in 2008? And we see localized outbreaks of Lassa hemorrhagic fever after the 4 imported cases during the past decade?
Our health care system is good, and we know how to control infection. In the Ebola case, the hospital messed up, a LOT, by not immediately admitting the guy based on travel history. But that lapse will not lead to Ebola getting established in the bat population and becoming endemic to the US.
*click* spin *click* spin *click* spin…BANG!
Eeeee-bolllll-aaaaaa ping!
Bring Out Your Dead
We’re gonna need 
a bigger cart!
Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.
The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.
So far the false positive rate is 100%.
At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.
*sigh* Such is life, and death...
Standard water disinfection will kill it, along with UV light. Water should (should) not be a concern or issue.
I'm thinkin' Trébuchet.
Nice imagery huh.
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