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Tebow’s Freeze Out
The Sports Economist ^ | May 9, 2013 | Brian Goff

Posted on 05/11/2013 6:47:46 AM PDT by 1rudeboy

Why is Tim Tebow out in the cold? Why are general managers and coaches willing to roll the dice with a QB who has never played an NFL down or a struggling QB versus one who holds a winning record and notched a stylish, memorable playoff victory over the vaunted Pittsburgh defense?

Part of Tebow’s fate falls to timing.   In past posts,  I’ve referenced economist Zvi Griliches iconic article “Hybrid Corn: An Exploration in the Economics of Technological Change”. He demonstrated the acreage planted with hybrid seed took over across states, slowly, at first few adopters, then gaining steam, and finally won over even the die-hards resulting in an “S-shaped” curve depicting the growth in its use. This picture describes the diffusion of most any “technological change” whether a new corn seed, a new tractor implement, black players on Major League teams, or the use of “run-option” quarterbacks in the NFL. In the early stages of use, it’s difficult to distinguish between crazy ideas and brilliant ideas. Almost any new idea will draw vocal detractors, sometimes among people of respect and insight. Numerous NFL insiders, including those as insightful as Bill Belichick and Steve Mariucci, have denigrated the idea of the “option” and QBs suited for it as an integral part of NFL offensive strategy. Even a year or two ago, and in spite of Tebow’s success in Denver, the critique appeared weighty — enough so that the Broncos sought out another QB (albeit, a Hall of Famer) and traded Tebow. With the Colin Kaepernick’s trip to the Super Bowl with the 49ers along with others such as Robert Griffin III, it’s looking less crazy and more brilliant, less temporary fad and more permanent strategy.

I don’t mean to imply that the run-option QBs will ever come to dominate completely. One key difference between sports and agriculture is that one particular technology doesn’t necessarily swamp all others. NFL rules favor passing. Successful teams for many years have employed skilled passers with ever-increasingly complex passing schemes. The trouble is that not everyone can draft Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. The ground in Iowa and the ground in Kentucky may both be receptive to hybrid corn seed, but the same passing scheme that works in New England or Denver isn’t going to work nearly as well in some other place because a key input, the QB, does not have the skills of Brady or Manning. Insightful coaches like Jim Harbaugh and Mike Shanahan decided better to adjust the system to the talent rather than hope that a struggling young QB like Blaine Gabbert (Jacksonville) evolves into a Brady or Manning.

Alright, so Tebow came on the scene just a bit too early, why aren’t teams like Jacksonville scrambling for him now? His less than consistent passing skills hurt him. He can thread the needle on one throw and look silly on the next. Ironically, the GM who turned him out in Denver, John Elway, displayed those same traits for the first half of his career. Nonetheless, Tebow’s passing isn’t as polished as Kaepernick or Griffin. On the flip side, he has shown that he can win games, even against good defenses. A major part of the success of Kaepernick and Griffin is what they do to defensive strategy. At the end of last season, Griffin played a very mediocre passing game against the Cowboys, but because of his running threat (even with a bad knee), his running threat opened the way for his running back, Alfred Morris to have a great night with the Redskins scoring 28 points. The interaction effects between running and passing abilities of QBs with the other offensive players influences both yards gained per passing play along with yards gained by other runners. Tebow’s enormous celebrity almost certainly works against him now. Any GM and coach who bring him on board invite a national media spotlight far beyond what a newly drafted QB will bring. Don’t be fooled — coaches and GMs, in spite of voicing indifference about media and fan attention, care about scrutiny. The care a lot — ok, maybe Bill Belichick doesn’t, but that’s why he is willing to make decisions other coaches will not on matters such as not punting on fourth down. The “Christian” element of Tebow’s celebrity also surfaces as a possible obstacle to him. While I don’t doubt that some coaches, players, and, particularly, media figures roll their eyes at him, there are many NFL players who openly, if with less attention, display their faith. My guess is that his unlucky timing, inconsistent passing, and undesired media attention resolve the conundrum much better.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Society; Sports
KEYWORDS: denverbroncos; newyorkjets; timtebow
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To: discostu

“They ignore the fact that the Denver defense shaved 15 points of their average allowed for his reign (or somehow credit him with it) “

I’ m no Tebow fanatic , but a little observation would show that a notable part of that was due to his not putting his defense in a bad spot - and further he certainly seemed to get his defense to perform better and with more confidence.. Not to compare him with Brady overall, but in 2001, the Pats defense responded to Brady the same way. Trent Dilfer also helped his team out a lot by not taking risks with the ball. There is definitely something to be said for each the leadership displayed and that style of play.

“and studiously ignore how often he had 10 or fewer completions in a game.”

A Running first down and a passing first down aren’t all that different...except that when you execute your defense and a player who isn’t “supposed” to be making the play makes the conversion a few times it is demoralizing.


41 posted on 05/12/2013 2:50:07 PM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: stormer

“No coach in his right mind is going to take what is probably his most expensive (and valuable) asset and let him get pounded virtually every play, and for the run option to be an effective threat, that’s what’s going to happen. “

That’s a big issue, and one that applies to all of the run option quarterbacks… Not just Tebow. Vick gets blown up just about every year and people wonder why.


42 posted on 05/12/2013 2:52:35 PM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: lepton

Or maybe they just came together. That season thanks to the strikes defense struggled early. League wide defensive numbers improved dramatically in the second month.

10 total receptions in a game is bad QBing, period. 2 is utterly pathetic. He’s done that. His overall numbers are just plain bad. Very few passes, very few competitions, very low competition percentage, bad TD to turnover ratio. In the end you can see exactly why he was 3rd on the depth chart.


43 posted on 05/12/2013 3:07:05 PM PDT by discostu (Not just another moon faced assassin of joy.)
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To: discostu

The guy need to realize that he can extend his NFL career if he switches to tight end, H-back, or perhaps linebacker.

Otherwise he should think about heading to Canada football.


44 posted on 05/12/2013 3:10:03 PM PDT by nascarnation (Baraq's economic policy: trickle up poverty)
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To: lepton

In college everybody knows guys are only going to be around for a short time, so why not grind them up? There’s always another recruit lined up...


45 posted on 05/12/2013 3:37:12 PM PDT by stormer
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To: nascarnation

Tebow in the CFL? No way - all they do is pass.


46 posted on 05/12/2013 3:41:27 PM PDT by stormer
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To: Gil4
" If that same boss had already given you reason to distrust him, or at least reason to belieeve that organization wasn’t a very good fit, wouldn’t you probably say “Thanks, but I’ll look elsewhere”? "

Y'know what? You've got a point so far as coach Ryan is concerned... but understand, to not do what Ryan wants is in fact "a career decision".

Let's see what happens... maybe the jags or someone else will pick him up as a backup. I personally think his natural position in the NFL is at TE/H-back.

I also think he would do well to stop upstaging his team and management wherever he is, i.e. "Tebowing" on the sideline, etc. He would do more for his cause if he were more like Colt McCoy or certain other QB's I could mention, who are professing Christians and don't mind people knowing it, and leave it at that.

47 posted on 05/12/2013 3:41:53 PM PDT by OKSooner
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To: Gil4

Curt Warner.


48 posted on 05/12/2013 3:43:19 PM PDT by OKSooner
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To: Gil4

Kitna. Yeah, Kitna was the other guy I was thinking of. Also Sam Bradford and probably several others.


49 posted on 05/12/2013 3:44:25 PM PDT by OKSooner
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To: lepton

I found him exciting when he was at Denver. However, men who know the game, AND COACH IT and want to make “megabucks” apparently do not think he can do the job hence he is not selected. I don’t think one must posit a vast sports conspiracy to explain Tebow’s failing to be selected.


50 posted on 05/12/2013 4:12:20 PM PDT by AEMILIUS PAULUS (It is a shame that when these people give a riot)
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To: AEMILIUS PAULUS

Conspiracy? I doubt it… At least not a deliberate one.

Failure to see past preconceived notions? A lack of creativity? Entirely possible.

The guy who did have a vision for him is on a team that would have no use for at least half the starting quarterbacks in the NFL.


51 posted on 05/12/2013 4:43:45 PM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: discostu

If you are referring to the Jets, he wasn’t third on their depth chart he was functionally off their depth chart. And Sanchez, their starter, is one of the quarterbacks that he might well have actually been an upgrade on.


52 posted on 05/12/2013 4:47:19 PM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: discostu

He’d be a pretty good tight end I think.


53 posted on 05/13/2013 10:28:38 AM PDT by Borges
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To: Borges

I’d rather put him at RB, he’s got just enough passing skills to be an excellent trick play threat. Give him the ball 20 times a game, have him throw twice a game, it’ll drive defenses insane.


54 posted on 05/13/2013 10:31:45 AM PDT by discostu (Not just another moon faced assassin of joy.)
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To: 1rudeboy

Obama’s fault.


55 posted on 05/13/2013 10:37:53 AM PDT by 0.E.O
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To: discostu; Hot Tabasco
You are entitled to your opinions as am I.
Tim Tebow has as much right to make hit beliefs a part of his persona as any other player who denounces or endorces otherwise.
and as for the comment
"We’re a results oriented business"
I have two words for You.
Donovon McNabb.
56 posted on 05/14/2013 4:25:53 PM PDT by Falcon4.0
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To: Falcon4.0
I have two words for You

And I have two for you:

So what?

57 posted on 05/14/2013 4:52:29 PM PDT by Hot Tabasco (This space for rent)
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To: Falcon4.0
Tim Tebow has as much right to make hit beliefs a part of his persona as any other player who denounces or endorces otherwise.

P>He sure does and nobody is arguing that. The issue here is that his mediocre performance in the NFL is turning off any potential owners from signing him since his "persona" supercedes any legitimate contribution he may provide to a team that should decide to sign him. In other words, he is indeed a distraction..........

Now if he had the stats of say a Jim Brady, then nobody would give a rats ass about his on field display of his christianity. Unfortunately for him he doesn't.......

If you want your boy to succeed in the NFL then tell him to give his thanks in the locker room......I don't think God will mind.

58 posted on 05/14/2013 5:11:39 PM PDT by Hot Tabasco (This space for rent)
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To: Hot Tabasco

He was just drafted, no NFL stats yet.

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=68710&draftyear=2012&genpos=OG


59 posted on 05/14/2013 5:13:40 PM PDT by nascarnation (Baraq's economic policy: trickle up poverty)
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To: nascarnation
He was just drafted, no NFL stats yet.

TOM Brady.......sorry for the mistake

60 posted on 05/14/2013 5:18:18 PM PDT by Hot Tabasco (This space for rent)
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