Skip to comments.Tebow’s Freeze Out
Posted on 05/11/2013 6:47:46 AM PDT by 1rudeboy
Why is Tim Tebow out in the cold? Why are general managers and coaches willing to roll the dice with a QB who has never played an NFL down or a struggling QB versus one who holds a winning record and notched a stylish, memorable playoff victory over the vaunted Pittsburgh defense?
Part of Tebows fate falls to timing. In past posts, I’ve referenced economist Zvi Griliches iconic article Hybrid Corn: An Exploration in the Economics of Technological Change. He demonstrated the acreage planted with hybrid seed took over across states, slowly, at first few adopters, then gaining steam, and finally won over even the die-hards resulting in an S-shaped curve depicting the growth in its use. This picture describes the diffusion of most any technological change whether a new corn seed, a new tractor implement, black players on Major League teams, or the use of run-option quarterbacks in the NFL. In the early stages of use, its difficult to distinguish between crazy ideas and brilliant ideas. Almost any new idea will draw vocal detractors, sometimes among people of respect and insight. Numerous NFL insiders, including those as insightful as Bill Belichick and Steve Mariucci, have denigrated the idea of the option and QBs suited for it as an integral part of NFL offensive strategy. Even a year or two ago, and in spite of Tebows success in Denver, the critique appeared weighty — enough so that the Broncos sought out another QB (albeit, a Hall of Famer) and traded Tebow. With the Colin Kaepernicks trip to the Super Bowl with the 49ers along with others such as Robert Griffin III, its looking less crazy and more brilliant, less temporary fad and more permanent strategy.
I dont mean to imply that the run-option QBs will ever come to dominate completely. One key difference between sports and agriculture is that one particular technology doesnt necessarily swamp all others. NFL rules favor passing. Successful teams for many years have employed skilled passers with ever-increasingly complex passing schemes. The trouble is that not everyone can draft Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. The ground in Iowa and the ground in Kentucky may both be receptive to hybrid corn seed, but the same passing scheme that works in New England or Denver isnt going to work nearly as well in some other place because a key input, the QB, does not have the skills of Brady or Manning. Insightful coaches like Jim Harbaugh and Mike Shanahan decided better to adjust the system to the talent rather than hope that a struggling young QB like Blaine Gabbert (Jacksonville) evolves into a Brady or Manning.
Alright, so Tebow came on the scene just a bit too early, why arent teams like Jacksonville scrambling for him now? His less than consistent passing skills hurt him. He can thread the needle on one throw and look silly on the next. Ironically, the GM who turned him out in Denver, John Elway, displayed those same traits for the first half of his career. Nonetheless, Tebow’s passing isnt as polished as Kaepernick or Griffin. On the flip side, he has shown that he can win games, even against good defenses. A major part of the success of Kaepernick and Griffin is what they do to defensive strategy. At the end of last season, Griffin played a very mediocre passing game against the Cowboys, but because of his running threat (even with a bad knee), his running threat opened the way for his running back, Alfred Morris to have a great night with the Redskins scoring 28 points. The interaction effects between running and passing abilities of QBs with the other offensive players influences both yards gained per passing play along with yards gained by other runners. Tebow’s enormous celebrity almost certainly works against him now. Any GM and coach who bring him on board invite a national media spotlight far beyond what a newly drafted QB will bring. Don’t be fooled — coaches and GMs, in spite of voicing indifference about media and fan attention, care about scrutiny. The care a lot — ok, maybe Bill Belichick doesn’t, but that’s why he is willing to make decisions other coaches will not on matters such as not punting on fourth down. The “Christian” element of Tebow’s celebrity also surfaces as a possible obstacle to him. While I don’t doubt that some coaches, players, and, particularly, media figures roll their eyes at him, there are many NFL players who openly, if with less attention, display their faith. My guess is that his unlucky timing, inconsistent passing, and undesired media attention resolve the conundrum much better.
for your list
With the above critique, it sounds like the ‘Skins should pick up Tebow and put him in line behind RG-III.
I’ve made similar “prognostications” here on FR regarding the run-option QB. For some teams, it may be the way of the future and, since in the run-option, the lifetime of a QB is shortened (10-and-retire), it will save the owners $$$ over a contract and, ultimately, up-front (as the idea takes hold).
It is such a shame he does not change to another position. I think he is being stubborn. He is not a great quarterback to say the least, but would be good in another position.
This is how America now treats the “All American Boy”.
If Tebow were willing to switch to halfback or tight end he would be very much in demand. It is his apparent insistence on playing QB that is keeping him unsigned.
This is how America has always treated the All American Boy when it turns out they can’t do what they’re paid for. We’re a results oriented business.
In the second place, because I'm always fair about this kind of stuff, Tebow was a great QB when he was at the U of Florida. Doesn't mean he's going to be a great NFL QB or even a good one, and he's not.
In the first place...
What he is, is PRIDEFUL.
He had a chance at still being on the roster in New York, only at TE / H-back.
That turned out to not be good enough for him and his penchant for self-promotion, and the Jets, in spite of all the criticism that sticks to them, were being fair when they said "Fine, check out what happens to everyone in the league when the team doesn't have a place for them on the roster."
Let's see what happens with the Jags, or maybe he'll wise up and ask someone to give him a look at TE or H-back or whatever. I mean gee, the guy can run, he ain't afraid of getting hit, he ought to be able to catch, he'd always be a threat to throw or run on a trick play... can he block or does he just not want to?
The narrative about poor Tim being discriminated against because he's a Christian just doesn't make sense to me. In order for that to work, one would have to believe that he's the ONLY Christian in the league.
I think he's having trouble finding a place in the league mostly because he's a prideful, (see also "original sin") self-promoting showboat. Otherwise he would have shown some interest when the jets said they wanted to look at him at TE, which implied maybe keeping him on the roster at TE.
“...when it turns out they cant do what theyre paid for.”
I understand that Tebow wasn’t a very good QB even while they were winning in Denver, but he was better than Gabbert, probably better than Ponder has been these past two years, and probably would have been a better option for several other teams.
He’s also a young guy who works hard and has a good attitude. He is at least a decent developmental prospect in addition to being a marketing gold mine. The problem is many of his supporters think he’s a great QB already because he happened to be playing QB when Denver started winning the 3-pt games instead of losing them.
You’re just mad about 2008. :)
Tebow career completion percentage - 47.9
Gabbert - 53.8
Ponder - 59.2
He really doesn’t have the stuff.
Yeah the cult of Tebow really hurts him. They ignore the fact that the Denver defense shaved 15 points of their average allowed for his reign (or somehow credit him with it) and studiously ignore how often he had 10 or fewer completions in a game.
He’s been in the league three years, and he still kind of stinks. I don’t think he’s a development prospect anymore. And while his jerseys sell well thanks to the cult that follows him he’s an instant QB controversy, teams don’t like that. How many other 3rd string QBs (which is where he’s been on the depth chart his whole career) have huge crowds of people demanding he get put in? And which coach or GM would volunteer to put up with that? It’s kind of sad, he’s a good kid, but in the end his popularity is turning out to be his worst enemy. He probably could have had a decent career as an anonymous 3rd stringer coming in for gadget plays, could have had a better career as an RB with gadgets, but the cult wants him to be a starter, and he doesn’t have those skills, and the cult is making him untouchable.
The result of standing up for faith in Jesus Christ.
Why would anyone in the NFL waste a valuable spot on him, when some team will have the opportunity to sign that elusive and valuable, “first gay in the NFL”?
On the plus side, it has given me a lot of my life back.
I can remember when weekends posed a significant conflict between doing things and watching the sports. I find I am having more and more time to do things, and less and less time wasted on sports!
Actually, America is treating him very well - he’s rich, sought after for his opinions and for endorsements and for speaking engagements....just not sought after as an NFL quarterback. His life doesn’t suck. (and it shouldn’t - he’s a great role model).
like a hybrid seed.. that landed on bedrock. wow. good comparison.
I agree that he is not being discriminated because of his religion. I think at most games players from both teams pray together in the endzone after the game.
I wonder if the Tebow followers here would like him if was a Muslim or a Mormon.. If fact why did I ask that question..
To bad Al Davis is gone, I think he might have signed him.
Great kid, great Christian, rotten NFL QB. That pretty much sums it up. Reggie White was the Minister of Defense and he certainly had NO problem with teams knocking down his door to get him. Why? Great player.
This is a business decision. Nothing more.
and the Tebow cultist here would mock him if he wasn’t a great Christian..
A rotten quarterback that still has more playoff wins as a Bronco than Manning.
If he were to claim that he is now gay, evety team in the NFL would want him.
Why are general managers and coaches willing to roll the dice with a QB who has never played an NFL down or a struggling QB versus one who holds a winning record and notched a stylish, memorable playoff victory over the vaunted Pittsburgh defense?We all know there's just one reason, and it isn't about football or depth charts.
What nobody mentions is that even with flawed mechanics, and only 82 passes in his NFL career after one season, Tebow in 2011 threw just 6 interceptions in 318 passes, and three of those were in a 12-minute stretch when Denver was already more than a touchdown behind in the late going of a game at Buffalo. Just as impressive, he was right near or at the top of the NFL in yards per completion, and his yards per attempt were very high. He was able to do this even though John Fox had him passing only, essentially, when the opponent knew he’d be passing — he’d almost never have Tebow throw on first down or when Denver was tied or ahead. Add in the element of being a superb runner with the ball, and Tebow was borderline great in making Denver into a successful team that season, after the Broncos had lost 25 of their previous 32 games. And, now quarterback experts who worked with him say the mechanics of his throwing have been solved by fixing his footwork. He is being black-balled from the league. I am confident, though, that God has a greater calling and purpose for Tebow, whether it has anything to do with football or not.
Who, me? :)
If we could put Tim Tebow in a time machine and bring him back to 1984, besides listening to “Colour By Numbers” and voting for Reagan’s re-election, Tebow would be able to team up with Doug Flutie and been part of the greatest 1-2 QB punch in NFL history. Those two would have been fun to watch.
Mariano Rivera is a devout Christian and a man of faith. He can throw a ball within 2mm of where he is aiming.
Tebow can’t do the job. throwing a football into a 3 foot window while a bunch of 300 pound guys are trying to kill you is a tough job.
There are only 20 people on the planet who can do it well at the NFL level. He is not one of them.
“Tebow career completion percentage - 47.9
Gabbert - 53.8
Ponder - 59.2”
I’m still torn on Tebow as a QB. That completion percentage is bad, but it was not all due to a lack of accuracy. A lot of it was due to the all-or-nothing passing game that the Broncos went to. He was given a couple of reads and told to get rid of it if the play wasn’t there.
Despite the low completion percentage, his yards per attempt were quite a bit higher than either of the other two. That’s despite the fact that the offense was tailored for Orton and Tebow didn’t get the first team reps until after week 5. He’s no Tom Brady, but if you add what he can do with his legs, he could possibly become a decent QB.
“He had a chance at still being on the roster in New York, only at TE / H-back. “
So you don’t think he can fix his throwing motion but you think he can learn to block and catch well enough to play TE in the NFL despite the fact tha he has never played a position that required him to do those things?
He signed as a QB. The Jets didn’t want to keep him as a QB. I don’t know if he was offered a chance to stay as a TE/H-back, but he was under no obligation to accept that offer if it was made. When training camps roll around, if he still doesn’t have a team he can re-evaluate his options.
He has probably already made enough money to not have a real job in his like. If he can’t get a job as a QB, maybe he will decide to do something other than football. If his heart isn’t in the TE/H-back position, that might be for the best.
“There are only 20 people on the planet who can do it well at the NFL level. He is not one of them.”
There are 32 teams and each has at least 2 QBs. Most have 3.
That means there are between 44 and 76 people employed as NFL QB’s whom by tour evaluation, arent good at it. Many of them are young guys who teams think oculd become good at it. Tebow has at least shown flashes of potential.
For a guy who puts so much showmanship into his Christianity, I would expect that he would be familiar with the story (not a parable, a real story that really happened) of Jesus and the Centurion.
If he recognizes his position as a man under authority, if the coach calls him in and says "We want to take a look at you at TE", isn't the right answer "I'll do whatever it takes to help the team win", even if he has to ask for a day or so to think it over?
As for his throwing motion, it's not my place to say. I'm not a football player, just a fan.
BTW, if you'll indulge me, we had a situation at my school a few years ago that might shed some light on this deal.
A certain player was starting at QB, following a departed Heisman trophy winner. (Not our most recent one.) He was a competent QB, but a younger kid, kind of a hotshot, had come in and in fact beat him out of the starting job.
The older player didn't like it, but for the good of the team switched to wide receiver...
As it turned out, the younger player had his good points, but he also had a bad side... the last straw was when he got kicked off the team for accepting cash for work he didn't really do at a local car dealership. There had also been some attrition at QB, with another guy who would have been next in line transferring to a school out west.
So two weeks out from the 2008 season, our team had no starting QB and only a couple of young guys at that position.
Coaches call in the older guy who had moved to WR the previous year and said "we need you at QB." He said "I need a day to think about it", then the next day went to the coaches and said "I'm your man." That player's name was Paul Thompson.
Our team won the conference championship with him at QB, and as a matter of fact went to the BCS championship game, where, to tell the truth about it, we were beaten by the University of Florida, who had a young man with jets named Percy Harvin on offense, a defense with team speed like we hadn't ever seen before, and Tim Tebow at QB.
So I have seen it happen before, and seen a guy make the best out of a position change and seen it work out the best for him.
The only way a guy doesn't accept that offer is if his pride has overtaken his committment to his team and the coaches who are in authority over him. 'Specially if there's NFL money involved.
The deal with Paul would have happened a year or two before.
Tebow had a bad initial reaction to the announcement that McElroy would get that one start in place of Sanchez, but if I remember correctly he he did apologize and offer to do whatever was needed.
In the offseason, the pros and college are two different things. The college guy you mentioned probably had three options: 1. Accept. 2. Decline and stay at the school, likely spending his last year of elligibility on the bench. 3. Decline and transfer, which would likely mean sitting out a year before he could play again. If I read correctly, he was also going back to his old position, not switching to a completely new position.
I don’t know the details of what the Jets offered Tebow this off season. If your boss said you weren’t a very good computer programmer but we sure could use another office secretary (with the corresponding pay cut) wouldn’t you at least weight your options first? If that same boss had already given you reason to distrust him, or at least reason to belieeve that organization wasn’t a very good fit, wouldn’t you probably say “Thanks, but I’ll look elsewhere”?
“he just does not have the skills necessary to Quarterback a professional football team.”
Except that he has actually demonstrated that he has the skills necessary to quarterbacking professional football team. He’s no Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, but in his first year as a starter he’s better than probably around a dozen quarterbacks that started last year.
He was under contract, so they couldn’t have cut his pay, they could have moved him which may have reduced his future pay, but not as much as being cut.
No it's not........Tebow is not the "All American Boy", he's just a young man trying to make it in the NFL.
He has chosen to make his religion forefront to his profession which is fine but is it necessary? He can give his thanks to his God before and after the game in the locker room and God won't care a bit.
As mentioned, he has indeed become a distraction and in the competitive world of the NFL, managers and owners don't need that........
Just play the game Tebow and give your thanks afterwards.........
“They ignore the fact that the Denver defense shaved 15 points of their average allowed for his reign (or somehow credit him with it) “
I’ m no Tebow fanatic , but a little observation would show that a notable part of that was due to his not putting his defense in a bad spot - and further he certainly seemed to get his defense to perform better and with more confidence.. Not to compare him with Brady overall, but in 2001, the Pats defense responded to Brady the same way. Trent Dilfer also helped his team out a lot by not taking risks with the ball. There is definitely something to be said for each the leadership displayed and that style of play.
“and studiously ignore how often he had 10 or fewer completions in a game.”
A Running first down and a passing first down aren’t all that different...except that when you execute your defense and a player who isn’t “supposed” to be making the play makes the conversion a few times it is demoralizing.
“No coach in his right mind is going to take what is probably his most expensive (and valuable) asset and let him get pounded virtually every play, and for the run option to be an effective threat, that’s what’s going to happen. “
That’s a big issue, and one that applies to all of the run option quarterbacks Not just Tebow. Vick gets blown up just about every year and people wonder why.
Or maybe they just came together. That season thanks to the strikes defense struggled early. League wide defensive numbers improved dramatically in the second month.
10 total receptions in a game is bad QBing, period. 2 is utterly pathetic. He’s done that. His overall numbers are just plain bad. Very few passes, very few competitions, very low competition percentage, bad TD to turnover ratio. In the end you can see exactly why he was 3rd on the depth chart.
The guy need to realize that he can extend his NFL career if he switches to tight end, H-back, or perhaps linebacker.
Otherwise he should think about heading to Canada football.
In college everybody knows guys are only going to be around for a short time, so why not grind them up? There’s always another recruit lined up...
Tebow in the CFL? No way - all they do is pass.
Y'know what? You've got a point so far as coach Ryan is concerned... but understand, to not do what Ryan wants is in fact "a career decision".
Let's see what happens... maybe the jags or someone else will pick him up as a backup. I personally think his natural position in the NFL is at TE/H-back.
I also think he would do well to stop upstaging his team and management wherever he is, i.e. "Tebowing" on the sideline, etc. He would do more for his cause if he were more like Colt McCoy or certain other QB's I could mention, who are professing Christians and don't mind people knowing it, and leave it at that.
Kitna. Yeah, Kitna was the other guy I was thinking of. Also Sam Bradford and probably several others.
I found him exciting when he was at Denver. However, men who know the game, AND COACH IT and want to make “megabucks” apparently do not think he can do the job hence he is not selected. I don’t think one must posit a vast sports conspiracy to explain Tebow’s failing to be selected.
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