Posted on 01/28/2011 3:01:22 PM PST by MindBender26
As many of you know, am old network TV newsie. Just tapped former proven source, retired VERY senior CIA officer. No Hq paper-pusher type, he is the real deal, a highly successful very senior ME field operator. Retired as ES-4.
From an intel assesment stanspoint, he is a proven source, with access to information, extensive field work in the area, no reason to lie and has always given good data in past.
His assessment (in shorthand:)
1. If Egypt falls, disaster for US. Put succinctly; "the horse we bet all our life savings on may be about to drop dead in the backstretch."
2. If Egypt gmvt falls, radical Muslim Brotherhood will be the new power, totally.
3. If Egypt falls, Jordan and Saudi are in trouble, but not necessarily gone. Even Syria is not safe.
4. Although Muslim Brotherhood would take over, the cause of revolt is not religion but the lack of jobs, horrible standard of living. Saudi and Jordan citizens have somewhat better conditions, so might be saved.
5. Egyptian Army is the absolute key. If Army stays local, Mubarak may be safe. If they falter, he is absolute toast.
6. Problem is, Army does not like Mubarak. They loved Sadat, he was one of them, but they do not like Hosni.
7. If Egypt falls, biggest winners are Iran and Russia. Iran becomes big kid on block. Russia desperately needs crude oil prices to go up to help economy. They prosper at $90 barrel crude. This could create $220, $250 a barrel crude oil prices
8. Big loser? Surprisingly not Israel. Just more enemies... who all know Israel will take war nuc if necessary to save self.... but due to US aid, Egyptian Army has great American equipment.
9. Biggest loser #2; Western Europe
10. Biggest loser #1; USA. Oil prices cripple economy. Even worse, word in every diplomatic circle becomes "See what happens to America's friends."
Bottom line; possible/probable disaster for US
That is THE most interesting aspect. I wonder who is really going to come out of this on the other end. If it's the Muslim Brotherhood...that will be the WORST CASE SCENARIO. I do not see that yet...although I'm just an internet observer.
Thanks very much for posting, MindBender26
nah. don’t worry about it. we are going green and that will create millions of jobs. Everyone is forgetting how SMART zero is.
True. But it sends a message that we’ll take care of our energy needs. Might calm the spot markets, if nothing else.
And don’t discount the power of the market. If the market sees a chance to make a profit, people will move heaven and earth to be first in on the action. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit that our own oil would be flowing in less than 2 years if Zero would just open the spigots.
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The gov't can declare Martial Law, but they can't enforce it on 90 million unwilling, gun-owning Americans, who are already just about pissed enough to go CWII on their ass.
Had to be some upper level army cooperation to get the assassination team in the right vehicles to be in proper position for the timing of the fly-by.
Amen.
Sheriff Dupnik’s uncivil tongue caused this.
“The American Embassy in Cairo helped a young dissident attend a US-sponsored summit for activists in New York, while working to keep his identity secret from Egyptian state police.”
There are a few nagging questions about this. Who was working in the American Embassy in Cairo at that time? Why was the UN sponsoring a ‘summit for activists’? What type of activism? Anyone have a video of the ‘summit’? Pres. Bush was on his way out in 2008. How could he keep this going?
What effect to this situation do you think these activists had?
Tell you after we see what happens
Notably missing from the analysis: China.
Also missing: any discussion of status of Suez canal, and possible effects of closing or attempts to keep it open.
My assessment of your source: he doesn't like Obama at all, has spent some time lamenting the politicization of the CIA, and he rather enjoys the notoriety of giving bad news.
But they own the Suez Canal.
he got it last night...got up yanked the cord out of the wall..and went back to bed....probably exhausted, poor fellow, from shootin to many hoops
Mog and Magog sounding more and more likely, sooner rather than later.
Much appreciated. Thanks tons.
Has your source ever said anything about . . .
—when WWIII is scheduled?
—UFO’s etc.
—overt global government
—New Madrid quake and resulting Gulf of Mex changes toward Great Lakes
—animal die-offs
???
Some comments on that.
1. It's been obvious for some time that Mubarak's regime has been dealing with a motivated opposition.
2. He's old and sick.
3. The original thought was probably that it's better to anticipate Mubarak's fall, and to build and support a network of "responsible" people in-country. It wasn't a question of supporting sharia law, it was more a matter of trying to create a relatively smooth transition to a more democratic sort of government. Not a bad plan, except....
4. Obama's team of amateurs probably never understood the original idea, probably rejected it because it was Bush's strategy, and most likely just let the network wither on the vine. Obama's little lovefest in Cairo was assumed to be enough.
5. So the bad guys get more active, and now they have a handy scapegoat to hang the blame on.
The original idea was sound and prudent. The decision to let it go (if an explicit decision was even made) was a mistake of the first magnitude.
Drill dammit drill. Eff the EPA and the Sierra club.
Globalist traitors pretending to be American Leaders.
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