I'll get me coat ...
Posted on 11/13/2018 1:59:43 AM PST by SMGFan
“It could happen in a matter of months,” says Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center. ________________
“The sun is entering one of the deepest Solar Minima of the Space Age,” wrote Dr Tony Phillips just six weeks ago, on 27 Sep 2018.
Sunspots have been absent for most of 2018 and Earth’s upper atmosphere is responding, says Phillips, editor of spaceweather.com.
Data from NASA’s TIMED satellite show that the thermosphere (the uppermost layer of air around our planet) is cooling and shrinking, literally decreasing the radius of the atmosphere.
To help track the latest developments, Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center and his colleagues recently introduced the “Thermosphere Climate Index.”
The Thermosphere Climate Index (TCI) tells how much heat nitric oxide (NO) molecules are dumping into space. During Solar Maximum, TCI is high (meaning “Hot”); during Solar Minimum, it is low (meaning “Cold”).
“Right now, it is very low indeed … 10 times smaller than we see during more active phases of the solar cycle,” says Mlynczak
(Excerpt) Read more at iceagenow.info ...
who do you think will be the next Democrat President? In which year?
What?
The Sun matters?
Al Gore wept.
Indicating intense magnetic activity, sunspots accompany secondary phenomena such as coronal loops, prominences, and reconnection events. Most solar flares and coronal mass ejections originate in magnetically active regions around visible sunspot groupings.
According to Danish scientist Henrik Svensmark, when there is less or fewer sunspots, the solar wind decreases. This allows cosmic rays from the overall universe to hit Earth's atmosphere and cause increased cloud formation, that reflects more sun off of the Earth.
According to the web site: https://www.plantmaps.com/interactive-new-york-first-frost-date-map.php
The average first frost date for Staten Island is 1-10 November. So a first frost this week would actually be a little late.
I'll get me coat ...
which means a cooling effect? so, when the sun burns hotter, it gets cooler... does not make sense, unless your living depends on further study...
I’m sticking with the dwarf.
Brilliant!
Yes in Atlanta we had a week or two of fall weather and now the highs are in the 40’s and 50’s.
33 degrees here in Rome, New York. Nothing different from all the other years I’ve lived here. I think this is about the third year in a row that we didn’t have snow before, or on Halloween. It never snowed around Halloween in Rochester, NY when I was a kid, but when I moved here back in the early 70’s...it snowed before the end of October every year. That’s normal for this area. It snowed a little last Friday, and there’s snow on my car now. Glad I dug my brush and ice scraper out of the trunk already.
No, it isn’t about how hot the sun gets, although that is a factor. It’s all about the soar wind, which is not air movement like on Earth, but rather charged particles moving out from the sun in a directed direction in a magnetoelectric field.
The Earth has a core made up of a glowing, molten ball of iron, the size of the moon. As the Earth turns on its axis, it throws out its own magnetic field, which is very large for its size, which we call the Van Allen Belt. As sunspots throw out MORE solar wind than without sunspots, this engages the Van Allen Belt, which repel the solar wind around the Earth, and actually cause the atmosphere to enlarge and ward off cosmic rays, which are always present, from the sun, quasars, supernovae, other stars, etc.
When the solar wind is less active during low sunspot activity, the Van Allen Belt shrinks, and the atmosphere contracts. This causes a lot more cosmic rays (which are not a discernible field of moving particles like the solar wind, but coming from all directions), and increase upper atmospheric cloud cover, cooling the Earth—precisely because the hot sun can’t warm it as muich as a clear sky.
NASA? Not the most trustworthy group.... still it’s possible. Even that group can get it right sometimes.
damn SUVs and their sunspot reducing hydrocarbons /s
Uhhh, no. First the magnetosphere is an area of influence around the Earth caused by the Earths magnetic field and provides a "shield" from highly charged and dangerous particles that emanate from our sun. Second, there is evidence that the Earths magnetic field (caused by the motion of the Earth's molten core) once 'flipped' but IF that is going to happen again, its still a long way off. Its not sure that it will, and prediction of that is like prediction of global warming, based on models that may or may not be correct.
makes sense... so, just keep driving our SUVs then...
Hahahaha! Good one!
Thanks, Dunc.
Colder than normal in North Texas this week. As I type, it’s 32° F at 1300hrs. We don’t usually see a daytime low like that until January or February.
My crew is hanging around the shop, waiting for it to warm up to 35°, so they can head out.
If this is a harbinger of the coming winter, we’re gonna have a lot of downtime.
I was checking the local forecast discussions at some regional NWS offices - the Paducah office tends to be a little less formal than some others. Examples:
Nov. 13, 10:58am - The precipitation just doesn`t want to give up and the models do not have much of a clue on the amount and type of precipitation. Had to totally fabricate the top-down grids to get snow into the forecast.
Nov. 11, 10:24 pm - Ensemble GEFS plume (snow) potential has been a hoot watching for 5 days running now, with the 12Z output near zero after some indications of as much as 8" 5 days ago. The mean 5 days ago was running from 2-4" across the area and is now where our forecast is...one to three tenths for most... (trunc)
Note...after detailed sounding analysis and collaboration, we decided to shut the freezing pcpn potential off after about 09Z Tuesday. This should provide a smoother wording of Rain/Fzrain potential early in the event, transitioning to light snow before ending. `Should` being the key word...we`ll see how the formatter handles it and adjust from there. We`ll at least message our products with that strategy accordingly.
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