Posted on 04/18/2016 7:59:51 AM PDT by Trump20162020
Donald Trump Campaign Manager Corey Lewandowski says, "Ted Cruz is going to be mathematically eliminated from securing 1,237 delegates by next Tuesday. If that's the case and everyone has the same goal, which is to put a Republican inside the White House...they should unite behind Donald Trump."
(Excerpt) Read more at facebook.com ...
“However if Trump can also be kept from getting 1,237 votes, then things open up on the second ballot.”
Trump will go to the convention with nearly Three million more votes than Teddy....Steal the nomination, and reap the whirlwind.
“In sports, no one tells the wildcard team to forfeit because their record is not as good as the first place team they are playing. Why should it be any different here?”
Because sports are about the team’s profits. We’re talking about the entire country, not just Cruz or Trump.
“Cruz problem is his personality is TOXIC”
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Exactly right.
I’m voting Trump in the PA primary, and will be voting Trump in the general, even if that means writing in his name.
“he’s trying to stop Trump from winning 1237 delegates, which means he’ll stay in until the end.”
Kasich too!
Let’s all pray that New York Republican/Consevatives deliver a massive victory to Donald J. Trump in tomorrow’s GOP POTUS Primary....one that gives him a 65%-75% victory margin over Ted Cruz & John Kasich. Do you folks realize, that, if that would be the case, Trump would eliminate both Cruz & Kasich, in a New York minute. New Yorkers....you can do it. vote cast for either “New York Hater”, Ted Cruz or boring, deadbeat,loser, John Kasich is a total wasted, thrown away vote!!! GO Donald J. Trump!!! MASSIVE VICTORY COMING UP....delivered by Trump Home State Voters....Bravo!!! New York....destroy the GOP Establishment traitors, Cruz & Kasich!!!
“mathematically eliminated”
I’m trying to figure out how to eliminate someone mathematically. I think what he means is that Cruz is going to be eliminated, as shown by a mathematical analysis of the situation.
If Trump goes into the convention with 1100+ delegates, that will mean that the most Cruz can have will be around 900 (as the others will have close to 400). That's a 200+ delegate delta. Nearly quadruple the lead that Ford had over Reagan in 1976. To deny Trump with a 200+ delegate lead would definitely cause chaos.
Let's look at worse case scenario for Trump. He has 756 delegates presently. Let's say he only wins 80 of the 95 NY delegates tomorrow. That gets him to 836.
Then he only wins half the delegates in CT, MD, DE, and RI on April 26 (he leads by wide margins there and will likely do much better). That is total of 50 delegates which gets him to 886.
PA (also Apr 26) is interesting as only 17 of the 71 delegates will go to the winner - with 54 going to the convention unbound. But Trump is heavily favored there so give him the 17 which brings him to 903.
Let's say for sake of argument that Cruz wins Indiana on May 3. It's winner take all by congressional district. So let's assume that Trump wins a handful CDs and comes away with 12 delegates. (Not likely but I'm painting worse case scenario here). Trump now at 915.
Onto the May 10th contests of Nebraska and West Virginia. Cruz takes Nebraska (winner take all) and Trump wins WV (also winner take all). Chalk 34 up for Trump which gets him to 949.
Give all these states to Cruz: Oregon, Washington, New Mexico, Montana, South Dakota. But give Trump winner-take-all New Jersey which has 51 delegates.
Now Trump is at 1,000 with only California left. Again, I'm giving you a really, really bad scenario for Trump. And he still comes into CA with 1,000 delegates and needs 100 of the 172 available to get to 1100. Let's say he does that and is now up to 1100.
Now don't forget those 54 "unbound" delegates from PA. If Trump wins PA strongly, he'll get the bulk of those on the first vote. Let's say he gets 40 of those. So now he's at 1140.
But wait, what about Ohio? Yes, Kasich has 66 delegates but under present rules, Kasich needs to win a minimum of 8 states to qualify for the nomination on the first ballot. So under Ohio rules,as I understand them, those 66 delegates revert to the second place finisher - which is Trump. This is a grey area that nobody wants to talk about but suddenly Trump is now at 1206 delegates (in his worse case scenario) and only needs to find 31 more delegates to get to the necessary 1237. Carson will have 9 of them. Jebbie has 4. And Rand Paul, Carly Fiorina and Mike Huckabee each has 1.
But the big jackpots will be with Rubio (171) and Kasich - 144 total currently (including Ohio) with 78 outside of Ohio.
So even in a worse case scenario for Trump, with Cruz winning a mess of upcoming states, Trump appears to be in the driver's seat and in position to make whatever deals he needs to in order to secure the 1237.
Your optimism is inspiring but possibly misplaced. Trump voters may be loyal, but how loyal are the Trump delegates?
I will be voting Trump (my second choice) because I want the convention decided on the first ballot to avoid shenanigans. I don't believe Trump will gain delegates after the first ballot. I expect him to lose a lot of votes each round, unless he starts courting delegates, and I have seen no sign of him doing that. I also don't believe Cruz will gain enough for a second ballot nomination. While I think Cruz would make a better (perhaps much better) president, I do not believe he can make it to 1237 either. If Trump doesn't get to that total on the first round, I expect the nomination to go to someone who supports Amnesty.
This is why I am so irritated with Trump for his casual approach to delegates. What's his problem? I don't care if his claims that "Cruz is stealing delegates" motivate his supporters. That won't matter if he doesn't have a first ballot win. Trump was perfectly capable of an outright win on the first ballot, and he's not making the effort he should be making to guarantee that win.
Or is there anyone who thinks 70 registered republican voters in WY supporting Trump was his best effort? Is there anyone who thinks Trump could not have gotten 1,000 supporters to the caucus locations for the WY caucus, which would have given him far more delegates than Cruz with 600 supporters got? If Trump loses, it's because he didn't try hard enough - the blame falls squarely on Trump if he falls short by the number of delegates he could have earned in WY and so many other caucus states with a minimal effort.
liberal from stealing my party’s nomination.
That sounds like, “it’s my party and I’ll cry if I want too,”
Your post is sick.
Google "Ted Cruz kissing Heidi" if you want to see Ted kissing Heidi on the lips.
And while you are at it google your guy "Trump kissing Giuliani in drag".
He isn’t trying to win 1237 delegates, he’s trying to stop Trump from winning 1237 delegates, which means he’ll stay in until the end.
Nope. Cruz will drop out after he loses Indiana. Cruz needs to start thinking about 2018 or he will be a 1 term senator. Trying to Goldwater Trump will ruin his political career. He knows that.
Don’t mess with Texas. : )
Stupid article.
The first person to earn 1,237 delegates wins. During the first or second or third round of voting at the national Republican convention.
It looks like nobody will get that many on the first vote. It looks like Cruz will get that many on the second vote.
“If Trump does not reach 1237, it is not over, we have a play-off.”
You’re right. Lots of people refuse to understand that.
Trump is not being careless about getting delegates!!! Trump has hired the pit bull of delegate getting!!!! Manafort’s results WILL be held VERY close to the vest!!! Trump NEVER will let his enemies know his battle plan and people who work for him are fiercely loyal, just as his supporters are fiercely loyal!!!! CA. will ve gravy where delegates are concerned !!!
Actually it won’t be until June 7th, when CA votes, so Trump will remain mathematically viable until the very end. NJ and a handful of other states also vote on the last day. In reality Trump will be the only candidate who remains in the race who can achieve an honest voter based victory.
“Don’t mess with Texas. : )”
Oh yes I will! Texas deserves some serious “messing with” for giving the country Ted Cruz, Ronnie Earle, Sandra Day O’Connor, and a whole long list of worthless turds! Besides y’all have no trouble trashing California. Texas personnifles the comment: “Even though you can see that the wheel is still turning, you know the hamster is dead!”
And before THAT, SHE lived in DC and HE lived in Texas. (She was working in the Bush White House for years while Ted was Solicitor General of Texas.) No wonder the girls call him "the guest" when he visits, and even they don't want to kiss him or be held by him. (Of course like the 1%, the Washington Harvard Elite Oligarchy who rule us and whom the Cruzs have always been part of, the girls are raised by nannies.)
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