Posted on 04/04/2016 6:11:14 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
On the day before the Wisconsin primary, an Emerson College Polling Society poll shows Ted Cruz maintaining a 5 point lead over Donald Trump. On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders has an 8 point lead over Hillary Clinton.
The ECPS poll of likely Republican primary voters fits squarely with the results of other polls tracked by Real Clear Politics. RCP currently has Cruz up 6.5 in its latest average of polls (which includes the Emerson poll). Cruz wins with men (43%-36%) and women (35%-32%) and leads Trump strongly among Republicans (46%-31%). That last result tracks with Trump’s favorability among Republicans which is underwater by 10 points in this poll. From the Emerson press release:
Trump continues to struggle with likely GOP primary voters with a 43% to 53% favorable to unfavorable rating. Cruz and Kasich are viewed much more favorable among primary voters: Cruz 58%-38% and Kasich 69%-24% favorable to unfavorable ratings.
Where Trump beats Cruz is among Independents (37%-34%).
On the Dem side, RCP has Sanders leading Clinton by 3.1 points in its average of polls. That makes the 8 point lead in this Emerson poll Sanders’ best result. It’s also a big jump from a previous Emerson poll last month in which Clinton was leading by six. As we’ve seen around the country, Sanders crushes Clinton among younger voters but he is also making up ground among women:
Sanders leads Clinton 68% to 22% in the 18-34 age group and 57% to 38% among voters 35-54. Clinton bounces back with voters 55-74 by 11 points (54% to 43%) and maintains her strongest edge with voters over 75, 72% to 21%.
Sanders has extended his lead amongst men from 51% to 43% in ECPS previous poll to 59% to 36%, while cutting into the women’s vote for Clinton, now trailing by only 3 points 48% to 45%.
Finally, Emerson asked GOP voters how they would feel about the possibility of a brokered convention. The result was an even split with 50% saying the nomination should go to the person who has the most delegates and 50% saying they would support a brokered convention. That’s a somewhat different result than the one CNN got when it asked a similar question two weeks ago. CNN found 60% of GOP respondents supported giving the nomination to the person with the most delegates whether or not he had achieved a majority.
ABC News says Wisconsin could play a decisive roll in whether a contested convention becomes a reality:
A Cruz win would mean Trump has an even smaller window to clinch the nomination by the time voting ends in June, increasing the likelihood that Cleveland will be a contested convention.
A Trump win in Wisconsin, particularly one where he wins all 42 delegates, would give him a chance to widen his delegate lead, lowering the percentage he has to win for the nomination, and giving him momentum heading into his home state of New York. Additionally, it could also cement his credibility among unbound delegates who are deciding whom they will support at the convention in July.
ABC News Matthew Dowd sums it up this way, “If [Trump] would win Wisconsin, he likely gets it, if he loses Wisconsin he likely doesn’t.”
50% say the nomination should go to the person with the most delegates and 50% say it should be brokered. Both of those things are going to happen. Don’t these guys know how to ask the questions?
That was in Texas though,,right? I am trying to find the lat Emerson poll for WI. Do you by chance have a link? I’m working on finding one.
Sorry. Right. Thanks for the correction. The ARG is the newer from 4/1-4/3. Emerson has been accurate within 4 on Trump. ARG within 1 on Trump.. Notably Florida and South Carolina.
You can find a link on the RCP website (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_republican_presidential_primary-3763.html) Scroll down to find the previous polls for WI and you will find the last Emerson poll, dated 3/20-3/22.
Stephen Miller Amazing Speech Racine Wisconsin Senior Policy Adviser for Donald Trump - (Why Ted should not get elected by the guy who used to be Jeff Sessions top aid.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1qOA2PVDS8
Okay, I have to correct you again. Here is an ARG poll
TEXAS
Cruz 33
Trump 32
Final 43 - 26
They have been really off this whole primary. In fact, they had Kasich winning Michigan 33 - 31.
I could go on and on, but I really don't feel like looking up anymore.
Cruz is also ahead with philandering voters.
With up to 3 rallies per day they the weekend with thousands waiting outside the events that is significant. Trumps numbers are going up. Rallies do make a difference. However with 400% increase in early voting that could spell a neck and neck nail biter depending on where those went. Either way, we will know within 24 hours or so. I'm not going to get into a breakdown war either since I don't have my lap top with me, but yeah, we shall see shortly
Looking at the 4 most recent WI polls ...
... there is what looks like movement from Cruz to Trump:
Fox Business Mar 28, 29, 30 (3 days) Cruz 42 Trump 32
CBS News/YouGov Mar 29, 30, 31, Apr 1 (4 days) Cruz 43 Trump 37
Mar 28 falls off, Cruz +1 Trump +5
Emerson Mar 30, 31, Apr 1, 2, 3 (5 days) Cruz 40 Trump 35
Mar 29 falls off, Cruz -3 Trump -2
ARG Apr 1, 2, 3 (3 days) Cruz 32 Trump 42
Mar 30 and 31 falls off, Cruz -8 Trump +7
Trump had some bad days fall off that were replaced by 2 or 3 very good Trump days.
>> Emerson was GOP and used Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only <<
But on the other hand, the internals for the ARG poll break out the landline responses versus the cell responses — and they have the landline responders favoring Mr. Trump, while the cell responders favored Cruz.
Go figure.
You are making a basic logical error - comparing polls from different companies and trying to infer the direction of movement based on that comparison. You can compare different polls from the same company and get a sense of the direction, or you can look at the aggregate of polls over an extended period of time, but you can't compare a poll from Fox to a poll from Emerson, for example.
With that in mind, the Emerson poll shows movement toward Cruz (from Cruz +1 a week ago to Cruz +5 in the latest poll). The Marquette poll shows a massive move toward Cruz (from Trump +10 a month ago to Cruz +10 last week).
None of the other recent polls have any earlier polls with which to compare. But if you look at the aggregate trend, the average went from a 1.3% lead for Cruz 2 weeks ago to a 4-6% average lead this week. Any way you slice it, the movement has all been toward Cruz.
So Trump is voting for Cruz?
I have to believe that lots of democrats and independents can’t stand these 2 meshugenah on the democrat side and will go for Trump.
Walker has fended off recalls and won reelection because he COUNTS THE VOTES.
THIS IS RIGGED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This poll had Trump winning men by 35 or so and losing women by about 20.
That's just too big on all sides. My sense is that Cruz had this a week ago, and that things have really tightened.
We'll know tomorrow, but I don't think it will be a 10 point race in either direction. It's a Missouri style nail-biter... that would be my guess.
I know it’s not conventional. :) But I have used this technique before to spot movement in the few days before election day. Go back and look at Iowa ...
... the last 3 polls strongly suggested that Trump had lost his slight edge and Cruz and Rubio were moving up big. A series of overlapping polls can show movement.
As for Wisconsin, IMO, it looks like it has tightened considerably.
This from Nate Silver:
According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Ted Cruz has a 91% chance of winning the Wisconsin primary.
According to our latest polls-only forecast, Ted Cruz has an 83% chance of winning the Wisconsin primary.
The above includes the Emerson Poll.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/wisconsin-republican/
And the MSM anti-Trump machine is making headway. Look for the onslaught to kick in to high gear from here on out.
Once Cruz takes the lead they'll switch over to the anti-Cruz tactics.
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