Posted on 04/04/2016 6:11:14 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
50% say the nomination should go to the person with the most delegates and 50% say it should be brokered. Both of those things are going to happen. Don’t these guys know how to ask the questions?
That was in Texas though,,right? I am trying to find the lat Emerson poll for WI. Do you by chance have a link? I’m working on finding one.
Sorry. Right. Thanks for the correction. The ARG is the newer from 4/1-4/3. Emerson has been accurate within 4 on Trump. ARG within 1 on Trump.. Notably Florida and South Carolina.
You can find a link on the RCP website (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_republican_presidential_primary-3763.html) Scroll down to find the previous polls for WI and you will find the last Emerson poll, dated 3/20-3/22.
Stephen Miller Amazing Speech Racine Wisconsin Senior Policy Adviser for Donald Trump - (Why Ted should not get elected by the guy who used to be Jeff Sessions top aid.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1qOA2PVDS8
Okay, I have to correct you again. Here is an ARG poll
TEXAS
Cruz 33
Trump 32
Final 43 - 26
They have been really off this whole primary. In fact, they had Kasich winning Michigan 33 - 31.
I could go on and on, but I really don't feel like looking up anymore.
Cruz is also ahead with philandering voters.
With up to 3 rallies per day they the weekend with thousands waiting outside the events that is significant. Trumps numbers are going up. Rallies do make a difference. However with 400% increase in early voting that could spell a neck and neck nail biter depending on where those went. Either way, we will know within 24 hours or so. I'm not going to get into a breakdown war either since I don't have my lap top with me, but yeah, we shall see shortly
Looking at the 4 most recent WI polls ...
... there is what looks like movement from Cruz to Trump:
Fox Business Mar 28, 29, 30 (3 days) Cruz 42 Trump 32
CBS News/YouGov Mar 29, 30, 31, Apr 1 (4 days) Cruz 43 Trump 37
Mar 28 falls off, Cruz +1 Trump +5
Emerson Mar 30, 31, Apr 1, 2, 3 (5 days) Cruz 40 Trump 35
Mar 29 falls off, Cruz -3 Trump -2
ARG Apr 1, 2, 3 (3 days) Cruz 32 Trump 42
Mar 30 and 31 falls off, Cruz -8 Trump +7
Trump had some bad days fall off that were replaced by 2 or 3 very good Trump days.
>> Emerson was GOP and used Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only <<
But on the other hand, the internals for the ARG poll break out the landline responses versus the cell responses — and they have the landline responders favoring Mr. Trump, while the cell responders favored Cruz.
Go figure.
You are making a basic logical error - comparing polls from different companies and trying to infer the direction of movement based on that comparison. You can compare different polls from the same company and get a sense of the direction, or you can look at the aggregate of polls over an extended period of time, but you can't compare a poll from Fox to a poll from Emerson, for example.
With that in mind, the Emerson poll shows movement toward Cruz (from Cruz +1 a week ago to Cruz +5 in the latest poll). The Marquette poll shows a massive move toward Cruz (from Trump +10 a month ago to Cruz +10 last week).
None of the other recent polls have any earlier polls with which to compare. But if you look at the aggregate trend, the average went from a 1.3% lead for Cruz 2 weeks ago to a 4-6% average lead this week. Any way you slice it, the movement has all been toward Cruz.
So Trump is voting for Cruz?
I have to believe that lots of democrats and independents can’t stand these 2 meshugenah on the democrat side and will go for Trump.
Walker has fended off recalls and won reelection because he COUNTS THE VOTES.
THIS IS RIGGED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This poll had Trump winning men by 35 or so and losing women by about 20.
That's just too big on all sides. My sense is that Cruz had this a week ago, and that things have really tightened.
We'll know tomorrow, but I don't think it will be a 10 point race in either direction. It's a Missouri style nail-biter... that would be my guess.
I know it’s not conventional. :) But I have used this technique before to spot movement in the few days before election day. Go back and look at Iowa ...
... the last 3 polls strongly suggested that Trump had lost his slight edge and Cruz and Rubio were moving up big. A series of overlapping polls can show movement.
As for Wisconsin, IMO, it looks like it has tightened considerably.
This from Nate Silver:
According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Ted Cruz has a 91% chance of winning the Wisconsin primary.
According to our latest polls-only forecast, Ted Cruz has an 83% chance of winning the Wisconsin primary.
The above includes the Emerson Poll.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/wisconsin-republican/
And the MSM anti-Trump machine is making headway. Look for the onslaught to kick in to high gear from here on out.
Once Cruz takes the lead they'll switch over to the anti-Cruz tactics.
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