Posted on 04/04/2016 6:11:14 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
On the day before the Wisconsin primary, an Emerson College Polling Society poll shows Ted Cruz maintaining a 5 point lead over Donald Trump. On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders has an 8 point lead over Hillary Clinton.
The ECPS poll of likely Republican primary voters fits squarely with the results of other polls tracked by Real Clear Politics. RCP currently has Cruz up 6.5 in its latest average of polls (which includes the Emerson poll). Cruz wins with men (43%-36%) and women (35%-32%) and leads Trump strongly among Republicans (46%-31%). That last result tracks with Trump’s favorability among Republicans which is underwater by 10 points in this poll. From the Emerson press release:
Trump continues to struggle with likely GOP primary voters with a 43% to 53% favorable to unfavorable rating. Cruz and Kasich are viewed much more favorable among primary voters: Cruz 58%-38% and Kasich 69%-24% favorable to unfavorable ratings.
Where Trump beats Cruz is among Independents (37%-34%).
On the Dem side, RCP has Sanders leading Clinton by 3.1 points in its average of polls. That makes the 8 point lead in this Emerson poll Sanders’ best result. It’s also a big jump from a previous Emerson poll last month in which Clinton was leading by six. As we’ve seen around the country, Sanders crushes Clinton among younger voters but he is also making up ground among women:
Sanders leads Clinton 68% to 22% in the 18-34 age group and 57% to 38% among voters 35-54. Clinton bounces back with voters 55-74 by 11 points (54% to 43%) and maintains her strongest edge with voters over 75, 72% to 21%.
Sanders has extended his lead amongst men from 51% to 43% in ECPS previous poll to 59% to 36%, while cutting into the women’s vote for Clinton, now trailing by only 3 points 48% to 45%.
Finally, Emerson asked GOP voters how they would feel about the possibility of a brokered convention. The result was an even split with 50% saying the nomination should go to the person who has the most delegates and 50% saying they would support a brokered convention. That’s a somewhat different result than the one CNN got when it asked a similar question two weeks ago. CNN found 60% of GOP respondents supported giving the nomination to the person with the most delegates whether or not he had achieved a majority.
ABC News says Wisconsin could play a decisive roll in whether a contested convention becomes a reality:
A Cruz win would mean Trump has an even smaller window to clinch the nomination by the time voting ends in June, increasing the likelihood that Cleveland will be a contested convention.
A Trump win in Wisconsin, particularly one where he wins all 42 delegates, would give him a chance to widen his delegate lead, lowering the percentage he has to win for the nomination, and giving him momentum heading into his home state of New York. Additionally, it could also cement his credibility among unbound delegates who are deciding whom they will support at the convention in July.
ABC News Matthew Dowd sums it up this way, “If [Trump] would win Wisconsin, he likely gets it, if he loses Wisconsin he likely doesn’t.”
By tomorrow morning it will be dead heat.
On the other hand, we have this Poll:
http://americanresearchgroup.com/
That shows Trump leading Cruz in Wisconsin: 42 to 32
On the other hand, we have this Poll:
http://americanresearchgroup.com/
That shows Trump leading Cruz in Wisconsin: 42 to 32
Polls favorable to Cruz aren’t allowed in Breaking News.
The Cruz numbers have been falling all week & the Emerson polls are well respected & by & large spot on. Seems like Cruz will hang on, either way, we will know tomorrow.
ARG included Independents and used actual phone interviews. Emerson was GOP and used Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only.
I’m not sure of all implications, jut pointing out major differences. But I’m quite sure Independents will make a difference tomorrow.
Smells like New Hampshire to me.
Trump was going to lose there, too.
You do realize that this Emerson poll shows Cruz's lead GROWING since their last poll, don't you? You can't look at a fox poll that shows a 10-point lead, and then look at an Emerson poll that shows a 5 point lead and conclude that his numbers are falling - you can't compare polls from different companies that way. You look at the change from the last poll from the same company to determine the movement, which show his numbers gaining in this poll, not falling...
Reposting this morning’s story as “breaking news” to cover up the ARG poll, which is a more recent poll than the Emerson College one?
Emerson was completed 3/31 and the new ARG 4/3. ARG was very accurate on Trumps numbers in Florida and South Carolina
Didn’t the last Emerson poll show Cruz ahead by more than 5 points?
I did not realize that...that prior Emerson poll slipped by me, good catch.
No, the last Emerson poll only had Cruz with a 1-point lead - so this one is showing movement toward Cruz.
ARG is really flawed on what they released tonight. Only 400 in the poll and 160 stated they were Dem or Independent.
Trump tonight looks to only have about 1,500 at his rally. Cruz has about 8,000.
Trump is going to get beaten badly tomorrow. Up to him to right the ship then.
Emerson was completed 3/31 and the new ARG 4/3.
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Not true. it was done 3/30 - 4/3.
I also posted the ARG poll AFTER the Emerson poll. See Post #3 above.
ARG is the newer poll by at least 2 days.
It's a surprising good poll.
It sampled, not just Republicans, but those likely to VOTE in the Republican primary...of all affiliations.
I consider that a fair sample considering the election dynamics this year.
We'll know tomorrow night.
Media lies - here are the facts showing Trump smashing Cruz in Wisconsin: http://rickwells.us/archives/28126
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