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China near collapse?
Propublica.org comment ^ | 27 August, 2014 | BiberWallgoal

Posted on 08/31/2014 8:05:08 PM PDT by marktwain

click here to read article


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I found this analysis very interesting. Perhaps China experts here on FR can comment on it.
1 posted on 08/31/2014 8:05:08 PM PDT by marktwain
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To: marktwain

I’m not an economist, but I thought this would happen some time ago. I fear they won’t go quietly. I think a war with China is inevitable.


2 posted on 08/31/2014 8:10:36 PM PDT by Bulwyf
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To: marktwain

He certainly has spammed that same message across the web. He could fill in as a columnist at the epoch times.


3 posted on 08/31/2014 8:11:27 PM PDT by Theoria (I should never have surrendered. I should have fought until I was the last man alive)
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To: Bulwyf

A war with China may not be inevitable. If it’s collapse within is severe, China may choose to turn inward as it has during much of its history.

We may simply see China become mysterious again.


4 posted on 08/31/2014 8:12:32 PM PDT by Jonty30 (What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults)
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To: marktwain

Obama is hoping to collapse America first.


5 posted on 08/31/2014 8:12:45 PM PDT by G Larry (I'm tired of people not recognizing sarcasm!)
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To: Bulwyf

Remember, China has always excelled at the long game.

This may be true, it might be propaganda.


6 posted on 08/31/2014 8:13:21 PM PDT by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: All

“Therefore its state-controlled brainwashing education and propaganda machinations ensure a complete lack of morals and regard for laws in all Chinese growing up and beyond.”

bingo. if you didn’t know why they let our education system rot in the gutter, you should now.


7 posted on 08/31/2014 8:14:57 PM PDT by willywill
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To: redgolum; blam; Oldeconomybuyer

No worries, China can always sell its US Treasury Bonds.


8 posted on 08/31/2014 8:15:09 PM PDT by Graewoulf (Democrats' Obamacare Socialist Health Insur. Tax violates U.S. Constitution AND Anti-Trust Law.)
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To: marktwain

Went to China two years ago. A lot of the modernization that that is going on there is substandard to say the least. Saw a university campus that was less than 5 years old that was already falling apart. You see new [largely empty] apartment buildings next to hovels. And the pollution is out of control. They have a lot more problems than is being advertised.


9 posted on 08/31/2014 8:15:37 PM PDT by rbg81
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To: marktwain

and do not forget that it is also the most polluted place on Earth


10 posted on 08/31/2014 8:18:12 PM PDT by GeronL (Vote for Conservatives not for Republicans)
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To: marktwain

Hope it’s true. China is funding so much of our debt that so if we can get a new regime in there perhaps they’ll forgive a big chunk of it.

Gee, if communism collapses in China does that make the Obama White House the largest communist power left?


11 posted on 08/31/2014 8:18:21 PM PDT by OrangeHoof (Every time you say no to a liberal, you make the Baby Barack cry.)
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To: laplata

ping


12 posted on 08/31/2014 8:18:26 PM PDT by laplata (Liberals don't get it .... their minds are diseased.)
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To: marktwain

I like the analysis and the writing.

It’s all true, except the most important thing. It’s unfortunately wishful thinking that we will soon see the demise of the CCP ruled China.


13 posted on 08/31/2014 8:18:32 PM PDT by ifinnegan
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To: Jonty30

The trouble now is they’ve had that one child policy for so long that they now have a large population of young men with no prospect of marriage. China doesn’t want them to become unruly, they will use them as canon fodder.


14 posted on 08/31/2014 8:19:19 PM PDT by Bulwyf
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To: Jonty30
We may simply see China become mysterious again.

Oh no! Where would we buy our cheap Blue-ray players?!

15 posted on 08/31/2014 8:23:23 PM PDT by rockrr (Everything is different now...)
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To: marktwain

China has a rapidly aging population and a very materialist one at that. They aren’t prepared to overturn the government - not even close. The fact they are losing low-wage, low skill jobs is the same process the US has gone through. Economic development and a declining work-force mean typical farming families rural provinces now doesn’t need to send their children 500 miles away for a job making sneakers for Americans. Economic development makes people more content, not the other way around.

I can’t argue that China has built up a huge amount of domestic debt, and also that there is massive government corruption, based on government and political involvement in all aspects of the economy (the same way the US is heading).

But China is not Bolivia, Argentina or some other toy of Wall Street. They print their own currency, hold their own debt. They hold a lot of foreign debt too. So, the Chinese Government is beholden to no one. They have a lot more leverage over others, than others have over them.


16 posted on 08/31/2014 8:23:48 PM PDT by PGR88
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To: OrangeHoof

You picked up my sarcasm!

To keep the US FEDERAL ENTITLEMENT WELFARE PLANTATION going at full tilt, Obama might be flexible enough to trade Guam and a few other US Military Protectorates to China if China would just promise not to sell any of their USTBonds until February 1, 2017.


17 posted on 08/31/2014 8:25:06 PM PDT by Graewoulf (Democrats' Obamacare Socialist Health Insur. Tax violates U.S. Constitution AND Anti-Trust Law.)
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To: redgolum

“Remember, China has always excelled at the long game.”

They did ok when change moved very slowly.

They were conquered by “barbarians” at least twice. They gave up on developing significant technologies such as printing and gunpowder weapons to avoid the destabilizing force of change. They pulled back from exploring decades before the Europeans used it to conquer the world. They fell into warlordism, then into Communism.

I do not think their “long game” is so great.


18 posted on 08/31/2014 8:29:15 PM PDT by marktwain (The old media must die for the Republic to live. Long live the new media!)
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To: marktwain
Thanks for posting. It's a long read I'll have to get to it later. All things Red China are of great interest to me. Thanks again.

Red China's ascension to Number One super economic and all around everything super-super power like none seen before or ever again, scheduled for next Tuesday afternoon (about tea time), has been delayed.

'Apears that the days of free-tradin' our technology and knowhow away for cheap labor are over. In fact Deng's version of Lenin's New Economic Policy has only the confiscation of the useful idiots' holdings left to do.

I am not an expert but every great leap forward onto the backs of millions of citizens killing them was a contemporaneous event for me.. every one beginning with Mao's "agrarian reformers" taking over.

Even in the 1940s before Mao my Grandmother insisted that China would be the world's greatest power. Even as a child I did not think so.

19 posted on 08/31/2014 8:32:03 PM PDT by WilliamofCarmichael (If modern America's Man on Horseback is out there, Get on the damn horse already!)
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To: redgolum

Mao destroyed Chinese culture and replaced it with terror and uncertainty. He was not interested in the future and his successors have shown no inclination for change. The “modernization” of China has not given the majority of people any benefit—in fact it has continued Mao’s destruction of the agrarian people.

Long term planning was a Confucian ideal—the five year plan is the Communist way.


20 posted on 08/31/2014 8:34:54 PM PDT by antidisestablishment (Islam delenda est)
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