IMF Cuts US GDP From 2.0% To 1.7%. US Retail Sales Forecast Slashed From 4.1% To 3.6%: Winter Blamed

Zero Hedge ^ | 07/23/2014 | Tyler Durden

[SeekAndFind]

This is what happens when a priced to perfection global economy (and well beyond perfection based on the S&P 500) runs into the utterly and completely unpredictable and unforseeable "harsh winter weather."

First, the IMF just cut (again) its forecast for US GDP, this time from 2.0% to the consensus-estimate 1.7%. The IMF cited the 1Q contraction, which from a +3% original estimate ended up being that, just with a minus sign. It also says second-half growth to accelerate... because it must!

• Some other brilliant points from the IMF:
• IMF staff: U.S. to reach full employment “only by end-2017”
• “The economy is expected to reach full employment only by end-2017 and inflationary pressures are expected to remain muted”
• “If true, policy rates could afford to stay at zero for longer than the mid-2015 date currently foreseen by markets”
• Says job market “reasonably healthy,” wages should rise slowly

Or not at all.

And while IMF just slashed its 2014 forecast, it kept its growth forecast steady at 3%. Tomorrow the IMF releases its entire World Economic Outlook quarterly pamphlet which has been the source of so much amusement around these parts. We can't wait to update it for tomorrow's latest and greatest growth slashing.

And just so the IMF doesn't appear alone as the only idiot who, for the 5th year in a row, issued an optimistic forecast about US growth which is crashing before its eyes, here is the National Retail Federation which also just cut its 2014 retail sales growth outlook from 4.1% to 3.6%.

[Nachum]

The list, Ping

Let me know if you would like to be on or off the ping list

[Farmer Dean]

The economy was -2% in the first quarter,somebody better step on the gas.

[Signalman]

Those darn Winters. If only they didn’t occur...every year.

[grania]

According to that chart, the average hourly rate is the same as it was in 2006. Yet, it's widely established that less people are working full time. That would mean their weekly paychecks are down, and that chart is deceptive as regards the true declined situation of US workers.

Could it be that retail spending is down because people have less money to spend?

[Mr. K]

A 3% CONTRACTION????

THIS IS DEPRESSION-LEVEL ECONOMY

Let’s start calling it “The Obama Depression”

[GregNH]

“Winter blamed”

I thought there was global warming, I’m confused....

[1Old Pro]

Let’s start calling it “The Obama Depression” I've been calling it the Obama recession for years.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: The economy was -2% in the first quarter,somebody better step on the gas.

This was DESPITE the Fed stepping on the gas.

To stretch the metaphor further, someone placed something in the car preventing it from running to its full potential.

[jalisco555]

Those darn Winters. If only they didn’t occur...every year.

Come on, who could have anticipated that Winter would be cold?

[moovova]

Which winter? The last one, or the one coming up?

[Lee'sGhost]

Beat me to it.

[tcrlaf]

OH GOD!!!

Who ever knew that it SNOWS in North America!!!

[Graewoulf]

I had no idea the Oligarch Obama’s nickname was “Winter!”

[Night Hides Not]

“Winter blamed”

I thought there was global warming, I’m confused....

The trendy term is "climate change", and it's still Bush's fault.

[CJ Wolf]

Again

[GeronL]

“winter blamed”

hilarious

In the old days employment use to get a winter bump from “seasonal jobs”

[Farmer Dean]

When are the figures for the second quarter released?Two negative quarters in a row would do wonders for the Dems in the midterms.