Posted on 07/27/2005 6:21:50 AM PDT by A. Pole
The June payroll jobs report did not receive much attention due to the July 4 holiday, but the depressing 21st century job performance of the U.S. economy continues unabated.
Only 144,000 private sector jobs were created, each one of which was in domestic services.
Fifty-six thousand jobs were created in professional and business services, about half of which are in administrative and waste services.
Thirty-eight thousand jobs were created in education and health services, almost all of which are in health care and social assistance.
Nineteen thousand jobs were created in leisure and hospitality, almost all of which are waitresses and bartenders.
Membership associations and organizations created 10,000 jobs, and repair and maintenance created 4,000 jobs.
Financial activities created 16,000 jobs.
This most certainly is not the labor market profile of a First World country, much less a superpower.
Where are the jobs for this year’s crop of engineering and science graduates?
U.S. manufacturing lost another 24,000 jobs in June. A country that doesn’t manufacture doesn’t need many engineers. And the few engineering jobs available go to foreigners.
Readers have sent me employment listings from U.S. software development firms. The listings are discriminatory against American citizens. One ad from a company in New Jersey that is a developer for many companies, including Oracle, specifies that the applicant must have a TN visa.
A TN or Trade NAFTA visa is what is given to Mexicans and Canadians who are willing to work in the United States at below prevailing wages.
Another ad from a software consulting company based in Omaha, Neb., specifies it wants software engineers who are H-1B transferees. What this means is that the firm is advertising for foreigners already in the United States who have H-1B work visas.
The reason the U.S. firms specify that they have employment opportunities only for foreigners who hold work visas is because the foreigners will work for less than the prevailing U.S. salary.
Gentle reader, when you read allegations that there is a shortage of engineers in America, necessitating the importation of foreigners to do the work, you are reading a bald-faced lie. If there were a shortage of American engineers, employers would not word their job listings to read that no American need apply and that they are offering jobs only to foreigners holding work visas.
What kind of country gives preference to foreigners over its own engineering graduates?
What kind of country destroys the job market for its own citizens?
How much longer will parents shell out $100,000 for a college education for a son or daughter who ends up employed as a bartender, waitress or temp?
Apparently you buy a lot more BMW's, 747's and medical devices than the rest of us do.
Yes, but only if there are any of those lower-level types still around. The greedheads may well have thrown all of them to the wolves before parachuting out of what's left of the shell of a company.
...and you have been correct.
But that (potentially) makes the problem even worse, for if we were to bounce all the "don't belong here" students from TinkerToy College(s), THEN what jobs would they hold?
The next excuse for hiring CFL (cheap foreign labor) will be that "Americans don't have degrees..."
Furthermore, it is entirely reasonable to postulate that the vast majority of US jobs do NOT require a college degree. Most of them are "do-able" with training and practice, including a great percentage of "white-collar" jobs.
But then, the ex-faculty at TinkerToy State College(s) may have to find real work, too.
You are totally right. There are to many people taking higher education. Probably almost a third of the people that starts up taking higher education is not suited for it. Some of them flunk out and some never get the job they went to college for because its not that many good paying jobs out there. Instead of starting a work career early and getting a head start on the college people they throw away their money first than ends up with a bad job. Money put into a college career could have been used in getting a head start in the housing market
We manufacture more than we ever have.
For some reason they don't carry many of these goods in Walmart or anywhere else I shop
"There are valid complaints about how the gov't is handling defense procurement, but that really has nothing to do with the rest of our manufacturing."
Ok, we're closer to common ground. I agree that non defense related manufacturing is different.
I think we'd disagree on what extent our non defense manufacturing is a problem, but that's just flavor for the soup that is America.
Based on my experience and stories like this that I've heard from others, I've concluded that sending a high school graduate directly to college is a bad idea. Every high school graduate should spend at least a year working menial jobs just to get a good sense of what the rest of his life is going to be like if he doesn't start thinking really hard about what he wants to do and how he intends to get there.
The U6 portion of the BLS employment situation summary puts unemployment at 9%. It is also interesting to note that people working in a family business but earning no money are counted as employed in the household survey, even if their hours are minimal.
"Do YOU make your money working in high tech?"
Sounds to me like she makes her money preventing American citizens from working in some field.
Do you honestly believe that this is the problem?
I agree with your statement. If you work a year you would be more focused on studying.
We propose an administration that puts the nation on a war basis when it goes to war!
The "ramping down of wars" will only happen when the last neocon has a stake through his heart or we have an administration that scourges this vermin from its ranks!
Are you a "real" person or are you responding from the basement of the White House?
Here are the Federal Reserve's historical G.17 indices for manufacturing output, and while they do show a record level in the latest months available, it's only 118.9 in November 2004 versus 118.5 in May and June of 2000. There has yet to be a quarter to be beat the 2nd quarter of 2000 at 118.3 (though the 3rd quarter of 2004 was very close at 118), and no year is even close to 2000's 117.3 (2003 was only 111.9).
Table 7A
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: Manufacturing <1>
Seasonally adjusted
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| | |
| Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.| Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4|Annual <2>
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| | |
IP (percent | | |
change) | | |
1974 | -.9 -.4 -.1 -.2 .5 .1 -.1 -.8 .1 -.8 -3.0 -4.5 | -3.4 -.3 -1.5 -16.4 | -.3
1975 | -1.9 -3.0 -1.3 -.3 .1 .8 1.5 1.0 1.7 .4 .3 1.3 | -28.8 -7.0 14.1 10.5 | -10.5
| | |
1976 | 1.3 1.3 .1 .8 .4 .0 .8 .7 .2 .1 1.3 1.0 | 13.5 6.8 5.8 6.8 | 8.9
1977 | -.3 1.7 1.4 1.1 .8 .8 .2 .6 .2 .4 .1 1.0 | 10.4 14.3 5.7 4.6 | 8.7
1978 | -1.5 .4 1.7 1.5 .3 .7 .0 .5 .5 .8 .9 .9 | .1 13.5 4.3 9.0 | 6.0
1979 | -.9 .5 .5 -1.4 1.1 .1 .1 -1.3 .3 .3 -.3 .4 | 1.7 -.8 -.9 -.1 | 3.1
1980 | .4 -.1 -.8 -2.0 -3.0 -1.5 -.9 .7 1.6 1.7 1.8 .3 | .8 -18.7 -7.6 18.8 | -3.7
| | |
1981 | -.3 -.6 .3 .5 .6 -.5 .2 .1 -.5 -1.0 -1.2 -1.6 | .7 3.2 .1 -10.0 | 1.1
1982 | -2.3 2.7 -.8 -.6 -.2 -.2 -.2 -.8 -.4 -1.1 -.7 -.5 | -8.8 -2.0 -4.1 -8.6 | -5.4
1983 | 2.5 -.2 1.0 1.2 1.3 .8 1.5 .8 1.9 1.1 .3 .2 | 8.7 12.3 15.5 12.5 | 4.6
1984 | 1.9 1.1 .5 .5 .3 .5 .5 .2 -.2 .4 .4 .4 | 12.9 6.1 3.8 2.8 | 9.9
1985 | -.4 -.3 .8 -.3 .1 .1 -.6 .6 .1 -.2 .6 .4 | .1 1.0 .0 2.4 | 1.7
| | |
1986 | 1.2 -.7 -.3 .3 .2 -.4 .5 .3 .2 .4 .5 .9 | 4.6 -.3 2.4 5.0 | 2.2
1987 | -.3 1.5 .0 .5 .7 .4 .7 .5 .5 1.6 .6 .6 | 6.0 6.7 6.9 11.2 | 5.5
1988 | -.2 .1 .3 .8 -.1 .1 .1 .1 .4 .6 .2 .4 | 2.4 4.2 1.4 4.9 | 5.2
1989 | .8 -1.0 -.1 .1 -.9 .2 -1.1 .9 -.3 -.1 .2 .2 | 1.6 -3.4 -3.0 .8 | .8
1990 | -.2 1.4 .4 -.2 .0 .3 -.2 .3 .0 -.8 -1.1 -.8 | 4.1 2.7 .6 -6.5 | .7
| | |
1991 | -.8 -.6 -.6 .3 .8 1.1 .3 .3 1.0 -.2 -.2 -.1 | -8.9 2.1 7.3 1.6 | -2.0
1992 | -.6 .9 .9 .5 .7 .2 .8 -.3 .0 .6 .4 -.2 | .8 8.0 3.8 2.7 | 3.7
1993 | 1.1 .2 -.1 .5 -.1 -.1 .3 .0 .6 .8 .5 .6 | 4.7 1.6 1.4 7.1 | 3.5
1994 | .2 .1 1.3 .8 .7 .3 .5 .7 .3 1.1 .7 1.1 | 5.1 9.5 6.1 9.8 | 6.0
1995 | .4 -.1 .2 -.1 .0 .4 -.6 1.2 .9 -.1 .0 .5 | 5.6 .4 3.1 4.6 | 5.3
| | |
1996 | -1.1 1.5 -.3 1.2 .7 1.1 .3 .6 .8 .0 .9 1.0 | .7 9.5 8.0 6.8 | 4.6
1997 | .3 1.4 .8 .1 .5 .7 .5 1.2 .9 .7 .8 .5 | 10.2 6.8 9.5 10.2 | 8.5
1998 | .8 .2 .1 .8 .3 -.5 -.2 2.2 -.4 1.0 .0 .4 | 6.3 3.9 3.6 6.6 | 6.6
1999 | .4 .7 .1 .4 .9 -.2 .4 .9 -.3 1.3 .6 .9 | 4.9 4.9 4.5 9.0 | 5.2
2000 | .0 .3 .9 .7 .4 .0 -.3 -.6 .3 -.5 -.5 -.5 | 5.2 6.7 -1.8 -3.7 | 4.6
| | |
2001 | -.9 -.6 -.4 -.2 -.5 -.7 -.3 -.4 -.5 -.5 -.2 .2 | -7.6 -4.8 -5.2 -4.0 | -4.2
2002 | .7 -.2 .4 .2 .3 .8 -.2 .1 .0 -.7 .0 -.5 | 2.8 3.4 2.2 -3.2 | -.4
2003 | .3 -.1 -.2 -.9 .1 .6 .3 -.2 1.0 .3 1.1 .0 | -.6 -3.3 3.9 6.5 | .0
2004 | .2 1.2 .1 .6 .6 -.1 .8 .4 -.4 .7 .2 | 5.6 6.0 4.1 |
| | |
IP (1997=100) | | |
1974 | 53.1 52.9 52.8 52.7 53.0 53.0 52.9 52.5 52.6 52.2 50.6 48.3 | 52.9 52.9 52.7 50.4 | 52.2
1975 | 47.4 46.0 45.4 45.3 45.3 45.7 46.4 46.8 47.6 47.8 48.0 48.6 | 46.3 45.4 47.0 48.1 | 46.7
| | |
1976 | 49.2 49.9 50.0 50.4 50.6 50.6 51.0 51.3 51.4 51.4 52.1 52.7 | 49.7 50.5 51.2 52.1 | 50.9
1977 | 52.5 53.4 54.2 54.8 55.2 55.6 55.7 56.0 56.1 56.4 56.4 57.0 | 53.4 55.2 56.0 56.6 | 55.3
1978 | 56.2 56.4 57.3 58.2 58.4 58.8 58.8 59.1 59.3 59.8 60.4 60.9 | 56.6 58.4 59.1 60.3 | 58.6
1979 | 60.3 60.6 60.9 60.0 60.7 60.8 60.8 60.0 60.2 60.4 60.2 60.4 | 60.6 60.5 60.3 60.3 | 60.4
1980 | 60.6 60.6 60.1 58.9 57.1 56.2 55.7 56.1 57.0 58.0 59.1 59.2 | 60.5 57.4 56.3 58.8 | 58.2
| | |
1981 | 59.0 58.7 58.9 59.2 59.6 59.3 59.4 59.5 59.2 58.6 57.9 57.0 | 58.9 59.3 59.4 57.8 | 58.8
1982 | 55.7 57.1 56.7 56.3 56.2 56.1 56.0 55.5 55.3 54.7 54.4 54.1 | 56.5 56.2 55.6 54.4 | 55.7
1983 | 55.4 55.3 55.9 56.5 57.3 57.7 58.6 59.0 60.2 60.9 61.0 61.2 | 55.5 57.2 59.3 61.0 | 58.3
1984 | 62.4 63.0 63.3 63.6 63.8 64.1 64.4 64.5 64.4 64.7 64.9 65.1 | 62.9 63.9 64.4 64.9 | 64.0
1985 | 64.9 64.7 65.2 65.0 65.1 65.2 64.8 65.2 65.3 65.1 65.5 65.8 | 64.9 65.1 65.1 65.5 | 65.1
| | |
1986 | 66.6 66.1 65.9 66.2 66.3 66.0 66.4 66.6 66.7 67.0 67.3 67.9 | 66.2 66.2 66.6 67.4 | 66.6
1987 | 67.7 68.7 68.7 69.1 69.6 69.8 70.3 70.6 71.0 72.1 72.6 73.0 | 68.4 69.5 70.7 72.6 | 70.3
1988 | 72.8 72.9 73.2 73.8 73.7 73.8 73.9 73.9 74.2 74.7 74.9 75.1 | 73.0 73.7 74.0 74.9 | 73.9
1989 | 75.7 75.0 74.9 75.0 74.3 74.4 73.6 74.3 74.1 74.0 74.2 74.3 | 75.2 74.6 74.0 74.2 | 74.5
1990 | 74.1 75.1 75.4 75.3 75.3 75.5 75.4 75.6 75.6 75.0 74.2 73.6 | 74.9 75.4 75.5 74.3 | 75.0
| | |
1991 | 73.0 72.6 72.1 72.3 72.8 73.6 73.8 74.0 74.8 74.6 74.5 74.4 | 72.5 72.9 74.2 74.5 | 73.6
1992 | 74.0 74.6 75.3 75.7 76.2 76.4 77.0 76.7 76.7 77.2 77.5 77.3 | 74.7 76.1 76.8 77.3 | 76.2
1993 | 78.2 78.3 78.2 78.6 78.5 78.5 78.7 78.6 79.1 79.8 80.2 80.6 | 78.2 78.5 78.8 80.2 | 78.9
1994 | 80.8 80.9 81.9 82.6 83.2 83.4 83.8 84.4 84.6 85.5 86.2 87.1 | 81.2 83.1 84.3 86.3 | 83.7
1995 | 87.5 87.4 87.5 87.4 87.4 87.8 87.2 88.3 89.1 89.0 89.1 89.5 | 87.5 87.5 88.2 89.2 | 88.1
| | |
1996 | 88.6 89.9 89.6 90.7 91.3 92.3 92.5 93.1 93.9 93.8 94.7 95.6 | 89.4 91.4 93.2 94.7 | 92.2
1997 | 95.9 97.2 98.0 98.1 98.6 99.3 99.8 101.0 101.9 102.7 103.5 104.0 | 97.0 98.7 100.9 103.4 | 100.0
1998 | 104.8 105.0 105.1 105.9 106.3 105.7 105.5 107.9 107.5 108.5 108.5 108.9 | 105.0 106.0 106.9 108.7 | 106.6
1999 | 109.4 110.2 110.3 110.7 111.7 111.5 112.0 112.9 112.6 114.1 114.9 115.9 | 110.0 111.3 112.5 115.0 | 112.2
2000 | 115.8 116.2 117.2 118.0 118.5 118.5 118.2 117.4 117.8 117.3 116.7 116.1 | 116.4 118.3 117.8 116.7 | 117.3
| | |
2001 | 115.0 114.3 113.9 113.7 113.1 112.3 112.0 111.6 111.0 110.5 110.2 110.5 | 114.4 113.0 111.5 110.4 | 112.3
2002 | 111.2 110.9 111.4 111.6 111.9 112.8 112.6 112.8 112.7 112.0 112.0 111.4 | 111.2 112.1 112.7 111.8 | 111.9
2003 | 111.8 111.6 111.5 110.4 110.5 111.1 111.5 111.3 112.4 112.7 113.9 113.9 | 111.6 110.7 111.7 113.5 | 111.9
2004 | 114.1 115.5 115.6 116.4 117.1 116.9 117.8 118.3 117.8 118.6 118.9 | 115.1 116.8 118.0 |
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Note: Estimates from September 2004 through November 2004 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases.
<1> See footnote 2 to table 3.
<2> Annual averages of industrial production are calculated from not seasonally adjusted indexes.
As to dollar value, the Census Bureau publishes the Annual Survey of Manufactures; for the 2003 report, it shows that in current 2000 dollars (not inflation-adjusted or otherwise made "real" or "constant" -- see the note on page 8) that the best year for dollar value of manufacturing shipments was 2000 at 4.2 trillion dollars and the second best was 1999 (page 11). In real dollar terms, the dollar value of manufacturing shipments dropped in the period from 2001 to 2003.
It may be that 2005 sets a record for total manufacturing value shipped in current dollars, but I don't think it's likely in real dollars. Certainly 2002 and 2003 were dismal, and 2004 was only marginally better.
But I think a valid case can be made for a fair degree of interconnectivity. For example, to build a tank, you need a steel industry, a bearings industry, an automotive industry (engines), an electronics industry (communications and control), a munitions industry. To have a viable steel industry, you need mining capability. For mining, you need automotive capability (trucks and mining equipment). You need infrastructure (energy and transportation). I think the bottom line is that if you want to be a world-class military and industrial power, you need a broad-based and robust economy, which includes both low-tech and high-tech components. Being primarily a service industry isn't going to cut it. Being an assembler of parts manufactured elsewhere isn't going to do you any good if the supply of those parts is cut off.
History tells us that countries heavily dependent on outside sources for raw materials, component parts, and finished goods eventually finds itself in a position where it is vulnerable to conquest by siege (in all it's forms). I'd rather us not be there.
Hey I know you from the other thread. It is you that love muslims. You seem like a real PC person.
"Hey I know you from the other thread. It is you that love muslims. You seem like a real PC person."
Who loves muslims?! Isn't that like loving Hitler?
Yep, there's always a dark lining somewhere in that silver cloud. I can't remember quite where, but I've heard this is the worst economy since Herbert Hoover.
My biggest purchase last year was a Ford SUV made in Kentucky. That accounting for the majority of my purchases of manufactured items (by value).
Qualified accountants are also extremely hard to find. While I'm not downplaying what may be happening to the techies, there are lots of fields that are growing right now. The key for current students is to study the job market and find the fields that have growth opportunity.
That's because a high school diploma no longer ensures that someone can read, write and do math at a certain level. So employers want college degrees even though the job doesn't really require it. Fault the public education system for that.
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