Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on September 16, 2003
...Isabel continues north-northwestward... a Hurricane Watch is in effect from Little River Inlet South Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including the Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach Maryland... and the tidal Potomac. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Hurricane warnings may be required later today or tonight.
A tropical storm watch is in effect south of Little River Inlet to South Santee River South Carolina. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A tropical storm watch may be required north of the Hurricane Watch area later today or tonight.
At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 27.5 north... longitude 71.3 west or about 595 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts...or category two on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. While some further weakening is possible today...conditions could become favorable for restrengthening prior to landfall.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 160 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 275 miles...mainly to the northeast of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb...28.32 inches.
Large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions are already being experienced along portions of the U.S. Southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. These conditions will also continue over portions of the the Bahamas for the next few days.
Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...27.5 N... 71.3 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 959 mb.
For storm-related information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office...and statements from local emergency management officials.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Franklin
"But for NOAA storm chasers hoping to further refine the agency's understanding and prediction of hurricanes, Isabel, he says, is a research dream.
"They are drooling . . . over what they're seeing in this storm -- things they've never seen in a hurricane before."
Like what?
"Well, last Friday they flew into the storm and photographed 'spokes' in the eye" -- streaks of cloud radiating from the center like spokes in a wagon wheel. "We don't know yet what they are or what they mean. But we're getting tons and tons of data" due to the opportunity to observe the Big One of hurricanes over an extended period of time.
When the Big One comes ashore, of course, it speaks with the voice of the Old Testament God. The one who gave the prophet Ezekiel the vision of the "big wheel."
"I started to use the term 'catastrophic' flooding and we decided against it," said NOAA public information officer Greg Hernandez. "We don't want to make people hysterical."
Though the storm's high winds will decay rapidly as it moves ashore, the spring and summer have been so wet along the Eastern Seaboard, Hernandez says, that the soil is saturated and all the streams are essentially full. Though every hurricane is different and researchers are still gauging Isabel's rainfall potential, such a storm would normally drop eight to 10 inches of rain during its passage, Kaiser said.
In addition, Isabel's forecast track -- in which Kaiser says NOAA has a high degree of confidence -- puts the Virginia capes in the storm's northeast -- or most dangerous -- quarter. This will allow the counterclockwise winds around the storm's eye to force a storm surge of 20 feet or more up the Chesapeake Bay and its tributary rivers. The bay's vast expanse of wetland will absorb some of this, but some sort of storm surge, Kaiser says, will be pushed all the way to the bay's tidal limits. On the Potomac River, this means Washington."