THE COMING JOB BOOM: "The long-term tragedy is that offshoring can't snatch ENOUGH skilled US jobs."

Business 2.0 | September 2003 | Paul Kaihla

[Lazamataz]

Democrats said joblessness was a much more important issue.

In this particular venue, WHO CARES what the Dem's say. I'm more interested in what's really happening! And, at present, joblessness in America is a problem.

[Lazamataz]

54,000 new legal immigrants come into this country each week, another 50,000 illegals come in each week. We are outsourcing at an even greater rate. The promise of jobs when the baby boomers retire is empty, there is no way we will see 200,000 baby boomers retiring each week.

I don't think barely 1% of those 104,000/wk immigrants will be up to the task of Software Engineering.

Outsourcing will be the only threat, and frankly, I, lelio, and Dominic Harr -- three professionals in the field -- have YET to hear about ONE outsourced project that was a success.

Don't forget that the article states that demand will double in IT.

[Lazamataz]

Load of crap.

Gill, you and I often agree, but you sure will have to do better than that here.

[Lazamataz]

Yup. That's where he is right now. No benefits, low pay, but he's doing some interesting stuff.

Then, in about 5 years, he will have a livable wage and some bennies. Then, in about 15 years, he will have a stellar wage and full bennies.

Or at least that's how it worked for me.

Sounds like your boy in on the right path, FRiend.

[Lazamataz]

Yes, that's how it always was in the old days (like ten or so years ago!) Kids just out of college didn't get signing bonuses back then. You had to pay your dues.

And frankly, I'm glad. Teaches them a little humility. Teaches them hard work. Teaches them nothing is free. The signing bonus stuff was absurd.

And, about humility: I have only become the incredibly-talented, wonderful -- dare I say *PERFECT*? -- person I am today by being humble.

[Luke Skyfreeper]

Those "baby boomers" had about three kids each, few baby boomers were celibate. So one can figgure that there are now three times the number of baby boomers making their way into the work force. It doesn't take a mathmatician to figgure out these forecasts are out of wack and not worth the tea leaves they were made from.

You're telling us what you "think," but the fact is that in the 1950's, the pattern was to marry and have at least two kids. This was a pattern that virtually everybody adhered to. Do you remember the saying, "2.3 kids?" You haven't heard it in at least 20 years.

Many baby boomers, in contrast, have never married or only did so late in life, had no kids at all (because the women wanted careers instead of families, like Condoleezza Rice, until it was reproductively too late), and a great many of those who did marry only had one kid, like some of our friends.

For every boomer couple who only had 1 kid, it would've taken a couple having 3.6 kids to bring things back up to the average of what they should have been. For every boomer woman who has ended up childless, it would've taken exactly one more couple choosing to have 4.6 kids to even things out. Sorry, it didn't happen.

Of course there are boomers such as my wife and I who have 5 kids. But there have always been large families in the statistics (much more so in the past than now), and we are by far the exception, not the rule.

Sorry, but the facts simply don't back your assertion. There is no huge generation behind the baby boomers. That was the entire point of the article, and it was based on solid, known, verifiable, countable, empirical facts, not stare-at-the-ceiling speculation. I'm sorry you missed it.

[Luke Skyfreeper]

And furthermore, those people will enter the market untrained and untested. I don't know about you, but *I'M* not willing to bet my mission-critical application on a 25 year old with a tongue stud.

Lol, well said.

Dummy me, I didn't even catch the huge 300% fallacy. And I majored in mathematics at university. Duh.

[Lazamataz]

Yes, some of the signing bonus kids are out of work and back at grad school. I remember when kids were being recruited before graduation and not even finishing their degrees! Now what? Back to school, I guess, but how hard is that? Man, engineering is a bear without having to pick up where you left off.

I could not picture going back to school now; not to reclaim a physics degree at least. Of course, I'd ace the comp-sci stuff. I've been doing it for 17 years now.

I wonder how many of those kids saved any money so they'd have some cash for school. Zero percent would be my wager.

[Lazamataz]

Dummy me, I didn't even catch the huge 300% fallacy. And I majored in mathematics at university. Duh.

I'm outsourcing your Freep messages to India until further notice.

[RoughDobermann]

Bookmark

[GrandMoM]

I have several boomer friends working for some Big Co's in senior positions. All have been "downsized" or their jobs have been "eliminated". Strange thing is that shortly there after a kid (not H1B) showed up and filled their position.....and most of the people I know who had those senior positions were made to train the tyke's before they were let go!!!

[Centurion2000]

bump .... looks like they are laying the groundwork to secure the H1B visas

[lawgirl]

I hope you're right. Sitting here with a JD and nowhere to go has not been good for my sanity.

[Ditto]

The baby boomers cannot afford to retire. They married late, had kids late, and bought houses late. Now they will have to keep working.

Not this one, and not most that I know.

[Old Professer]

The Tennessee state legislature is advertising for a legislative lawyer; the ad is in the Tennessean this weekend past.

[harpseal]

Sounds more like justification to keep up the HB-1 and L-1 visa numbers to me. (But then I am feeling rather pessimistic about the government and businesses at the moment.)

We have a winner