THE COMING JOB BOOM: "The long-term tragedy is that offshoring can't snatch ENOUGH skilled US jobs."

Business 2.0 | September 2003 | Paul Kaihla

[Alas Babylon!]

This scenario would be nice, but I'm wary. An attempt to justify HB-1 & L1 visas, perhaps? I don't know. I teach Microsoft Official Curriculum at a university, and business is finally stating to pick up. Actually, we're starting to look real good after two years barley keeping our program running. I am finding it very hard to keep optimistic when explaining the benefits of a high-tech education to my students. I tell them, hope for the best, but plan for the worst. Here's to hope!

[groanup]

"...that million just wasn't going to happen."

Guaranteed to happen. Start when you're 21. Put the equivalent of a cup of coffee and a half in your piggy bank every day ($1.75). At the end of the month you have $50. Put that into a S&P 500 index fund at the end of each month. If you get an average 8% return until age 65 you will have accumulated $250,000. If you double, triple and quadruple your contributions during your working years you will have your million. Guaranteed. Do the math.

Check some of the older mutual fund companies and see what they would have done. Try American Funds Investment Company of America or Dodge and Cox Balanced Fund. Both have been around since the 1930's.

"Work hard and save. You will chain the wheel of chance."

Ralph Waldo Emerson

[Sam Cree]

bttt

[Gorzaloon]

Students who were considering majoring in comp sci are going into business or law (shudder). Anything except the wage depressed high tech market.

But think further ahead. (Haha, listen to me, pushing 60!)

In the '60's, guidance counsellers said, "Major in Electrical Engineering! Good Pay!"

So everyone did, and glutted the market.

Then it was "Major in Chemical Engineering! Good Pay!"

So everyone did, and glutted the market. Now, no one wanted to be an EE any more-Too many layoffs!.

Then it was "Major in Software Engineering! Good Pay!"

So everyone did, and glutted the market. Now, no one wanted to be an ChE any more-Too many layoffs!

And so it goes. Every four years or so, there is a "Shortage" of people who did not major in a previous oversupplied field.

[IronJack]

The gloating employers who are using these rough times to belabor their employees will be the first ones whining about "loyalty" and "team spirit" when the circle turns. I've seen it before; corporations owe you nothing. But you're supposed to feel like your relationship with them is somehow personal and all oogy-squishy.

Just as they're putting the screws to workers now, they should expect repayment in kind if this prediction comes true. Those companies that respect their staff and treat them humanely should expect similar treatment when the worm turns.

[FITZ]

Interesting. I was thinking the other day, that my father really didn't work that long either.

My dad is in his 70's and still working full time, my grandfather didn't retire from full-time work until he was 84. I guess I'm pretty used to the idea that I'll go on working so when Social Security raises the age to 80, I'm prepared. It's really better to work anyhow.

[FITZ]

The problem is not just a function of retiring Baby Boomers

Also a function of how many babies are being born into welfare and to single mothers. Many of those babies just aren't going to have much of an upbringing that prepares them to join the labor force, they see mom running out to the mailbox for her welfare check, foodstamps buy them their food, and a series of boyfriends and one-night-stands are the only examples of manhood they'll ever see.

Our prisons are filled to the brim with people who should be part of the labor force right now ---- but we'll be working to provide for them.

[VadeRetro]

Just around the corner
There's a rainbow in the sky ...
So let's have another cup of coffee
And let's have another piece of pie!

[Chi-townChief]

"My father retired from the Navy after 27 1/2 years as a Commander. He was age 47. He hasn't had to work another day in his life. His Navy retirement pay was more than adequate to finish paying off his home mortgage, car payments and daily living expenses. Few baby boomers will ever have that kind of experience."

But, then again, few baby boomers will have lived through the big flu epidemic, the depression, the War, the following wars, etc. And few will give up 27 1/2 years of their lives in the service. I don't envy or begrudge our parents at all.

[ItisaReligionofPeace]

You are wrong. As a group, the baby boomers are very well off.

[navydad]

We're the first generation to have it WORSE than our parent's generation.

[Chi-townChief]

Which generation are you.

[navydad]

Early boomer - age mid 50's.

[Chi-townChief]

I'd have to disagree with you based on myself and my family's experience about us having it worse than our parents. I'm 49 so maybe that makes the difference.

[helper]

I have several boomer friends working for some Big Co's in senior positions. All have been "downsized" or their jobs have been "eliminated". Strange thing is that shortly there after a kid (not H1B) showed up and filled their position.

Most are not going to have the choice of working at their present position. Their biggest benifit is that they will not require health insurance since they will be covered under M/C.

[LibertarianInExile]

And the worst thing about that fantasyland million-by-30 scenario is that as soon as you put it in the bank, the feds and state and local gummints start salivating.

There WILL be a run on 401Ks and IRAs before GenX can retire. People will howl about taxes, but taxes on 401K contributions and money that they can't touch? It's just a matter of time.

[.cnI redruM]

If we kill H1B, we solve the unemployment problem in 3 months flat. I've actually come to agree with the neonativists on that one. The economy is definately coming back. Let's give US high tech workers first crack.

[the gillman@blacklagoon.com]

Load of crap.

[Keyes2000mt]

Thanks, I tend to not be a free trader, but all of the doom and gloom pings are depressing me in the middle of my job search.

[Mr. Jeeves]

Executives at Cigna, Intel, SAS, Sprint, Whirlpool, WPP, and Adecco... have told Business 2.0 that they, too, worry that the supply of labor is about to fall seriously short of demand.

Partially true. America is full of people who simply don't have the IQ to fill those types of positions (always the main argument in favor of H1B). Those who have the brainpower will likely find a way to prosper, as always. But the "new economy" will no longer offer any way for people with IQ's below 100 to achieve the middle class lifestyle they will see depicted as the norm on television. It's software engineering or Starbucks - and not much in between.

Social unrest will follow.