The Greatest Depression Is Coming

Financial Sense ^ | 11 Mar 2003 | John Finger

[Bloody Sam Roberts]

If you bought a tech stock at $100.00 per share and it’s now at $4.00, you’re tempted to “wait it out.” Don’t. You’ve made a mistake. Get over it. Take a loss, pick up your marbles and move on to another game.

The chart below would seem to deflate that statement handily.

[Auntie Mame]

I suggest you go back and re-read the article if you can stand to, it's so poorly written. Be that as it may, it starts off with how bad unemployment is, then says, well, the numbers aren't bad, but.....

Then, it goes on to the stock market with more lies.

Then, the article touches on deflation. Give me a break. There isn't any deflation, but he gives examples and they are bogus.

Then he has the example of houses sitting empty and nobody will buy them because they can't be insured until they're fixed up. Huh?

The author is deranged. Believe this crap if you wish.

[JNB]

I know where much of this BS comes from when people try to say the economy is fine, and attack anyone else who trys to present them with the facts. All these posts seem to be quite a bit like what Limbaugh says on his show "Oh the Democrats want to make the economy look bad" or "Oh the sky is not falling". As much as I respect Limbaugh intelligence on govrenmnet, politics, human nature and society, he knows very little about economics.

[LenS]

In the 90's, the population of the US increased by some 30 million. Our birth rate remains above replacement and immigration continues. All of those people have to live somewhere. Housing isn't going to collapse. There will be problem areas, but there always is.

[JNB]

Did you look at the portion of the chart from the mid 60s to early 80s? Yes, there are long term secular bear markets.

[Always Right]

I've never read so much BS in one article.

You must not read "Financial Sense' too often. This is par for the course.

[LenS]

Feel free to buy all the gold you want. It's your money to waste.

[JNB]

As secuality gets tighter, and the economy grows at a slower rate, or even shrinks, immigration will go down and the birth rate will decrease. The changes to the INS under Homeland Security are massive, though change does not happen all at once, but the net effect will be immigration will be more difficult in the upcoming years.

As for housing, sorry, but without job growth, housing will maybe not collapse, but will go down in value.

[supercat]

The chart is slightly-mislabeled. It's log-linear, not log-log, since the years are equally spaced.

[Tulsa Brian]

Don't worry. With a work ethic like this, this country will come out smelling like a rose...

[JNB]

Feel free to believe in the "new economy" and hedonistic accounting. I am not a gold bug by the way, and I think talk of $1000 gold is nonsense, but the gold ruse for high tech is over.

[sinkspur]

How many people do you know who have been laid off? I know plenty.

I don't know anybody who voted for Al Gore.

Does that mean he didn't get any votes?

This is the dumbest article in the financial realm I've ever read.

[Auntie Mame]

No, I've not read Financial Sense before. And I hope to never again. I can't believe I actually read this entire article.

; - )

[eeriegeno]

When Abbey Joseph Cohen valued Yahoo stock at $1000 and rated it as a 'strong buy' a few years back, she was doing the same thing that John Finger is doing here. When a financial expert makes dazzling promises or doom and gloom predictions, an investor is wise to follow an opposite path.

[SamAdams76]

Wow, I am really DEPRESSED after reading this. I need something to cheer me up...

There, I feel better now.

[JNB]

It amazes me how strongly people attack these articles. Yes, the conclusion is exterem, but the autjor points out the problems the economny is having right now.

Sorry people, but a quick victory over Iraq is at best a short term fix, the years of mis managment by Greenspan will take years to fix. I just hope McTeer does not become the next FED chair, talk about going from bad to worse.

[BossLady]

I think we can all see that the economy is not the greatest right now, however, some people seem to think they know better than us....that's what I don't like.

I also think people have had it pretty good for so many years that a little hardship freaks them out. Decisions we as individuals AND the go'ment make affect us all....and for a long period of time. And have you noticed, when we are in the middle of an up cycle, some cannot see that eventually, a down cycle is going to happen....no matter what....

[revtown]

Its interesting how the chart plateau's at 1000 in the 70's and now we could plateau at 10,000 or so..

[ChadGore]

The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.

[sourcery]

Your chart is misleading, for several reasons:

• It's not adjusted for inflation.
• It's not adjusted for taxes.
• It's "cherry picked" to cover a favorable date range. A chart covering the period from 1720 to 1789 would paint a very different picture.
• Even in your chart, an investor who bought in 1929 would have had to wait 20 years just to break even--not counting trading commissions, taxes, inflation or opportunity costs.
• Trees do not grow to the sky. Stock market prices do not go anywhere, up or down, in a straight line. Every up trend is followed by a down trend, at all time scales. The implications of that are actually negative to your thesis, and should giver everyone cause for significant concern.