Three mystery ships are tracked over suspected 'weapons' cargo

independent.co.uk ^ | 2/19/03

[CyberAnt]

Can you explain why you don't think the story "hangs together".

[lizma]

I'm not doubting that they are out there. I just doubt blowing them to kingdom come would even turn a head.

I think when the war starts, a few blips on the radar screen won't be missed.

[FairOpinion]

I would certainly be happier to have thoes ships blown up in the middle of some ocean, than have them come near populated shores and release whatever they have on them.

[null and void]

Usama's comment about the "belly of the beast" was, in his opinion, indicating that perhaps Usama was planning on heading an attack on the U.S., where he would die in the attack

Belly. New Orleans? The basturds!!!

[Travis McGee]

I don't buy it. It doesn't add up.

[Joe Hadenuf]

I agree this is surreal, completely surreal. I feel sometimes that this is all a dream since 9/11/01: nightmarish and bizarre.

Yup....

[Lion's Cub]

I wonder if BL is on one of those ships?

[CyberAnt]

Now that you bring that up - one of the things the UNIONS are fighting is the computerization of cargo shipping. From what I understand, the companies want to mark the shipping containers just like they mark food in the grocery store.

Of course, if they do that, it will mean some people will lose their jobs. However, it would solve that problem of being able to track every container ... except for those which criminals use.

[pepsionice]

I think the key is to simply halt resupply efforts and force the vessels to enter a port. When they enter Yemen...gets seals out there and board. I would have a couple of naval craft out there and blast any Yemeni effort to protect them. You don't anchor for weeks at sea and not move. You are wasting tons of money if you are doing that. And if the boat has problems, then you anchor near a port and fix the boat. Obviously, there is more to this entire story.

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the heads ups and all this information!

[piasa]

I don't buy the "we're afraid they might cause an environmental disaster," line, that's for sure. An ocean is too big for things to cause it much trouble; probably the worst thing that could happen to the environment is an oil spill - I don't buy the story's assertions about the cargo doing it if sunk. More likely the smuggling is in conventional explosives, personnel, or regular arms.

I can't think of a reason why we wouldn't board and check them out if we knew they were out there, so I tend to think that we wanted someone to know we have an eye on shipping, or that we want someone to assume their ships are still out there and not captured or boarded, or that the lawyers haven't sorted through the international legalities yet and we're holding off for them, or that we're in the middle of an investigation and need to build a case by gathering as much info as possible for the state department's legal team, or some other thing.

I do accept the fact that al Qaeda, Iraq, Iran, Arafat and others have at different times used ships to smuggle assorted materials and arms, as we or other nations have caught them in the act. So I discard the sensational parts.

Sometimes I think reporters include "impending crisis of gargantuan proportions" because they have other than honest intentions.

[CyberAnt]

Very interesting information - thank you.

Is it possible for us to monitor those conversations from subs ...??

Also ... would part of their plan be to wait until our seals were onboard the ship and then detonate it just as they land - thereby killing our people too ...?

[piasa]

I still think he's in the bottom of a cave somewhere. So far he hasn't put out any recordings with specific enough info on them to discount the idea that he died on december 17, 2001.

[piasa]

...Or that the reporter just doesn't know what he's talking about and is winging it with the little he does know.

[Travis McGee]

I agree with your analysis. If this was true, the first we would hear would be SEALs have captured them.

[Steel Wolf]

Is it possible for us to monitor those conversations from subs ...??

I would assume that the Iraqis are aware, due to widely publicized media reporting, that their communications are being heavily monitored. My wild guess would be that if these ships are in fact what this article implies, they likely minimize communications, and then only by spoken but coded phrases. They would be foolish to assume that there is no one listening.

They could use a "The weather here is nice, with a slight wind from the northwest" equals "We'll meet in Yemen on the 24th, have your messenger meet ours at the usual place" or similar substitution code.

Also ... would part of their plan be to wait until our seals were onboard the ship and then detonate it just as they land - thereby killing our people too ...? </i?

I honestly don't know. That strikes me as a particularly stupid way to advertise your own guilt. They may believe that they can run out the clock, possibly with help from the French and Germans. Having the evidence on ships would make for easy deniability, while keeping a chance that we may just leave them alone, not notice them, or back off due to 'international pressure'.

All that aside, there is very little a raiding party could do to prevent the ship from being scuttled if it is prepared correctly. (The crew would likely assume that we would be filming the raid for evidence, so they would count on being rescued.)

[El Gato]

Send the P-3s and B-52s out to "monitor them", if they head for the US or any friendly port, tell 'em to heave to, or be sunk. Harpoons from the P-3s and Popeye/Have Nap (AGM-42s) from the BUFFs should do the job. Send along an air sampler, to verify the cargo "after the fact".

[Pan_Yans Wife]

http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/002/263corhl.asp
Al Qaeda's Nightmare Scenario Emerges

[El Gato]

Yes, and considering a bunch of Haitian refugees just tooted on in under the Rickenbacker causeway a couple of months ago (in a leaky boat mind you), I seriously doubt any waterway is secure.

Don't forget the Cuban Coast Guard boat that tied up in Florida. We gave the boat back, but the crew stayed here, since they made it "feet dry" before being stopped. Well actually they weren't stopped at all.

[El Gato]

If they're observing radio silence - what other method would this type of ship have for "silent" communications ...??

Of course they can always just listen for their "go code", whatever that might be. Just hope it wasn't something OBL said on the latest tapes. They might aknowlege the "go order" with very short and seemingly innoccuos transmissions. Very short as in a second or less at a prearranged time and date. Ships could communicate one to another by blinker or flags if they were withing line of site of each other, which I find unlikely.