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After Liftoff, Uncertainty and Guesswork
The New York Times ^ | 17 February, 2003 | DAVID BARSTOW

Posted on 02/17/2003 1:04:35 PM PST by brityank

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1 posted on 02/17/2003 1:04:35 PM PST by brityank
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To: brityank
Yet Crater calculated that the foam would penetrate 3.4 inches in this part of the wing. The Boeing team did not accept Crater's predictions at face value. The program was "designed to be conservative," they noted, and so has sometimes "overpredicted penetration of tile coating significantly."

The whole purpose of the Crater simulation was to estimate gouging of the tiles. If it was over-predicting penetration depths, it should have been replaced by a better, more-accurate simulation. If you're going to ignore its results, why have it?

2 posted on 02/17/2003 1:19:24 PM PST by expatpat
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To: Budge; XBob; John Jamieson; wirestripper; snopercod; bonesmccoy
A recap of the NASA official press offerings along with opinions from others with background info.
3 posted on 02/17/2003 1:19:27 PM PST by brityank (The more I learn about the Constitution, the more I realise this Government is UNconstitutional.)
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To: brityank
>He added: "If you hit a bug going Mach 2, you're going to damage a tile. I don't buy the arguments that say that it was not a big deal."

I agree. However if both you AND the bug are going Mach 2? I realize the insulation had a second (if that) to slow down, but how much as compared to the acceleration of the shuttle?

4 posted on 02/17/2003 1:32:27 PM PST by Dutch14
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To: Dutch14
... how much as compared to the acceleration of the shuttle?

I've seen it estimated that the impact speed was around 570MPH for the ~2.5 pound block of 'foam'. Check out this thread.

5 posted on 02/17/2003 1:56:27 PM PST by brityank (The more I learn about the Constitution, the more I realise this Government is UNconstitutional.)
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To: Dutch14
I agree. However if both you AND the bug are going Mach 2? I realize the insulation had a second (if that) to slow down, but how much as compared to the acceleration of the shuttle?

The relative speed of the foam/ice that NASA has determined was 500MPH.

I happen to think it was much faster because the atmosphere would slow the foam down instantly to zero. It seems to me that Mach 2 is closer to the truth.
6 posted on 02/17/2003 1:58:28 PM PST by PatriotGames (AOOHGA! AOOHGA! CLEAR THE BRIDGE! DIVE! DIVE! WHOOSH!)
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To: brityank; XBob; snopercod
interesting read
7 posted on 02/17/2003 1:59:19 PM PST by bribriagain
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To: brityank; AstroJernigan; bonesmccoy
So the drumbeat continues to blame the loss of Columbia on the ET TPS, both in the media and (surprisingly) here on FR.

First, let me say that NASA should dump the "environmentally-friendly" solvents, adhesives, and aerating-agents and go back to the old ones which actually worked. We should use the best available technology on the shuttle, not the best "Politically Correct" technology. That's a given.

Then, we FReepers should all take a deep breath, a long exhale, and acknowledge that there are several other possible explanations for the burnthrough and breakup of Columbia.

We know [?] it was the heaviest shuttle re-entry yet.

We have the "yellow ice" theory where a big chunk of ice might have formed on the urine dump port as it has at least twice in the past, then broken off and impacted the left wing at retro-fire.

Just revealed was the solar flare which hit the ionosphere just as Columbia was at entry interface. Scientists Seek Clues in Solar Storm That Enveloped Shuttle.

Also just revealed was the fact that there was a modification made to the leading edges of Columbia's wings made at Palmdale in 1999. We haven't heard much about that...yet, but I am very interested in finding out what that was all about. Was there a problem with the RCC leading edge that needed fixing? Something that was not revealed to the Astronaut community? Officials Eye Columbia's Last Overhaul

8 posted on 02/17/2003 2:08:28 PM PST by snopercod
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To: snopercod
And here's one more: Exclusive: Did rough wing break Columbia? (their title, not mine)
WASHINGTON, Feb. 17 (UPI) -- Increased drag -- possibly caused by roughness on Columbia's left wing identified years ago and worsened by time and debris -- may have been enough to pull the shuttle into a fatal sideways flight angle on re-entry, experts have told United Press International.

9 posted on 02/17/2003 2:26:04 PM PST by snopercod
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To: snopercod
I haven't seen any real consensus yet; just lots of ideas being pounded down with valid scientific info.

Dr. Intriligator and other scientists who have seen the data describe the phenomenon as a sort of gigantic wave of electrically charged particles, magnetic fields and radiation that was moving toward Earth at roughly 400 miles a second.

"It is a disturbance, a discontinuity, and it did deliver a punch," Dr. Intriligator said.

So far, a NASA spokesman said, nothing in the abnormal readings sent to the ground from the wounded craft suggested that its catastrophic loss began with an electrical jolt. But he would not rule it out.

Plasma is both a gas and an electrical charge, and can be affected by gravity, magnetism, and electrical potentials. This 'minor' emmision might have been small by comparison with others, but combined ... .

10 posted on 02/17/2003 2:39:30 PM PST by brityank (The more I learn about the Constitution, the more I realise this Government is UNconstitutional.)
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To: brityank
This 'minor' emission might have been small by comparison with others, but combined ... .

Perhaps combined with this mysterious "aerodynamic transisiton"? Exclusive: Did rough wing break Columbia? (their title, not mine)

At least twice before, as Columbia returned to Earth from missions, its left wing experienced a critical aerodynamic shift too early -- prematurely increasing heating and drag on that wing, former shuttle commander Navy Capt. Robert (Hoot) Gibson, now retired, told UPI.

11 posted on 02/17/2003 2:53:08 PM PST by snopercod
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To: snopercod
You are correct that there are other possibilities. But the big one is this: "It is not clear if NASA's mission managers were aware of the stronger telescopes, but they have acknowledged that their decision making was influenced by a second assumption: "Even if I had information, I can't do anything about it," Mr. Dittemore told reporters the day after the accident."

This is where questions need to be asked: Was there really NOTHING that could be done? Well, the answer could be "yes, nothing." But I still suspect there was a failure to think outside the box, and a particular reluctance to consider any option that would involve purposely trashing a shuttle.

12 posted on 02/17/2003 4:22:00 PM PST by eno_
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To: eno_
In my opinion, there was plenty that could have been done. The article makes it clear that the NASA engineers knew they had a problem 81 seconds into the flight.

If you are driving your auto, and hear a thumping sound, what do you do? You stop, get out, and take a look. So why did nobody, but nobody, in NASA think of asking one of the astronauts to get out and take a look? And take a picture, maybe?

An emergency EVA can be done in 2 hours flat, if you throw away the 90% of the checklist that isn't safety critical. That gives you hard data 1000% better than anything a ground-based telescope can give you, and 10,000% better than a computer simulation whose results were thrown away anyway.

So now you know the extent of the problem. If the shuttle can't safely reenter, you have 15 days to come up with a Plan B. Instead, NASA spent those 15 days arguing around vast quantities of useless data, and finally deciding to cross their fingers and hope for the best.

Freepers, this is an immense tragedy. It is not just the end of seven brave lives; it is the end of the US manned presence in space. You know, as I know, that the shuttle will never fly again.

13 posted on 02/17/2003 5:08:55 PM PST by John Locke
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To: Jael; Fred Mertz
more information
14 posted on 02/17/2003 5:30:49 PM PST by TLBSHOW (God Speed as Angels trending upward dare to fly Tribute to the Risk Takers)
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To: John Locke
An emergency EVA can be done in 2 hours flat, ...

Prove it !!

You don't just pop on your overcoat and walk out the door. You need a self-contained unit; the only ones they carried on this mission were umbilical-attached suits to allow access to close the payload doors manually, if required.

Learn the basics, then come back.

15 posted on 02/17/2003 7:47:46 PM PST by brityank (The more I learn about the Constitution, the more I realise this Government is UNconstitutional.)
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To: TLBSHOW; MrConfettiMan; DoughtyOne
Bttt
16 posted on 02/17/2003 8:10:01 PM PST by Fred Mertz
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To: brityank
bump
17 posted on 02/17/2003 8:43:50 PM PST by Jael (Thy Word is Truth!)
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To: snopercod
ANYONE, and I mean ANYONE who thinks NASA is above suspicion is not a loyal patriotic American.

These seven people died, they deserved better than the suits at NASA not even trying to find out if anything was wrong with that left wing. They deserved better than Dittemore going on national TV and shrugging his shoulders about it.
18 posted on 02/17/2003 8:48:50 PM PST by Jael (Thy Word is Truth!)
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To: Fred Mertz
LOL

as a side note I just went to Capital Hill Blue and I was the 1,000,000th visitor to the site and a window moved across the screen and ballons are every where... LOL
19 posted on 02/17/2003 8:50:53 PM PST by TLBSHOW (God Speed as Angels trending upward dare to fly Tribute to the Risk Takers)
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To: TLBSHOW; fooman
Thanks TLB, good info post. Bump for fooman.
20 posted on 02/17/2003 8:54:11 PM PST by Jael (Thy Word is Truth!)
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