U.S. in Talks on Allowing Turkey to Occupy a Kurdish Area in Iraq (Screwing the Kurds)

nytimes.com ^ | February 7, 2003 | DEXTER FILKINS with C. J. CHIVERS

[Destro]

We just gave the Turks $15 Billion dollars in loan guarantees (which they will never be able to pay back of course) in what amounts to a very expensive road toll fee. Turkish troops will not help us fight Iraqi soldiers but to kill Kurds if they try and set up a state? What will American soldiers in Northern Iraq be doing in the midst of this scenario?

"We regard America as liberators," the official said. "And our neighbors as looters."

[Robert_Paulson2]

I don't see the kurds as a political entity.
They are going to have to be part of the new state of Iraq, or under the substantial rule of Turkey... we cannot have more afghanistanic regions on the borders of legitimate nations...

I, for one, would welcome a Turkish administration of the kurdish region... OR a non autonomous territory within a greater and democratized Iraq...

Most islamic majority states cannot yet reconcile the concept of individual liberty under a constitutional republic, or a parliamentary monarchy... with their seventh century, "allah or else" religion. Turkey is one of those states that has proven it can. I think Malaysia may be another.

Breifly put, any "allah or else" state, will have to be dealt with harshly in this millenia. If Islam can be pacified, it will survive. It it continues to move to the extreme fringe, it will be wiped out.

allah or else, just won't get it in this day and age. KURDS are islamics... and are entitled to their religion... but they may NOT be entitlted to autonomy, at least not yet.

It's a tough region of the world with lots of petty cultural enclaves. THAT is going to have to be rectified. By force if necessary.

[Husker24]

We dont need Turkey that bad, give the Kurds in independant country in Northern Iraq.

[Husker24]

The Turks have probably killed as many Kurds as the Iraqis, why give it to them.

[ApesForEvolution]

The biggest chess game I've witnessed in many years. Iran, Kurds, Shiites, Turks, blah, blah, blah...

[Destro]

The Kurds have built an impressive democratic statelet in Northern Iraq.

[Destro]

I don't see it as a chess game as much as a dart board game.

[marron]

Once we are in, we are in. I don't have a crystal ball, I'm just winging it here... but we will be orchestrating a "federal" Iraq, which is going to have a semi-autonomous North; just semi enough to mollify the Turks, but hopefully autonomous enough to satisfy the Kurds.

We are going to supervise the setting up of the system for contracting out the oil field work. I don't believe we will make any obvious grab for the oil ourselves, but we will limit the Turks' temptation to seize it themselves.

The best we can do is to include the Turks in some of the contracts, help to reactivate the pipeline from Kirkuk to Ceyhan, which will make Turkey a partner in the Kurdish oil business, in a way. If we are wise, we can protect the Kurds from any direct conflict with Turkey, and maybe begin to set the stage for a partnership between them. It will be ticklish, there is no love lost between them. But they are going too be neighbors for a very long time.

If we are smart, we would establish a Kurdish Oil Company to operate the northern oil fields. The Turks would have to do business with them, and vice versa, as Kurdish oil would be refined in Turkish refineries. This would change the dynamic between them.

I keep thinking we will establish a base near Baghdad, and another in the north, which would give us some moderating influence on the situation. And I think we may be there a while.

What do you think? I think these are short term predictions, maybe only a couple weeks away. I think the diplomatic charades are pretty much done. The UN may continue to turn the crank, will they, won't they, but I suspect we have already lost interest. I know I have.

[Husker24]

Yes, so why dont we leave them alone and not let the Turks invade them.

[okie01]

"The UN may continue to turn the crank, will they, won't they, but I suspect we have already lost interest. I know I have."

There is an argument for hoping that the French torpedo any UN participation.

After all, once Saddam's forces are defeated and he out of the way, we're in Iraq to accomplish two things:

1. Prosecute the War on Terror, from a conveniently located base.

2. Engage in establishment of a democratic state, complete with constitutional freedoms. Such an Iraq itself serves as a weapon in the War on Terror. And a destabilizing influence on every theocratic dictatorship in the area...

Both of these things are best accomplished with a "coalition of the willing", ourselves at the head. And without the assistance of any UN bureaucrats...

[okie01]

"The UN may continue to turn the crank, will they, won't they, but I suspect we have already lost interest. I know I have."

There is an argument for hoping that the French torpedo any UN participation.

After all, once Saddam's forces are defeated and he out of the way, we're in Iraq to accomplish two things:

1. Prosecute the War on Terror, from a conveniently located base.

2. Engage in establishment of a democratic state, complete with constitutional freedoms. Such an Iraq itself serves as a weapon in the War on Terror. And a destabilizing influence on every theocratic dictatorship in the area...

Both of these things are best accomplished with a "coalition of the willing", ourselves at the head. And without the assistance of any UN bureaucrats...

[Libertarianize the GOP]

http://www.freerepublic.com/perl/bump-list

[marron]

I could not be in more agreement. You are singing my song.

[Destro]

I understand that is the goal. We all watch sports don't we? We handicap based on the record of past performance. If Kosovo, the largest recent deployment of American occupation forces since is an example to follow then Iraq, an occupation 100 times the complexity, will be a horror.

Will we hunt down Shia if they start killing Sunni? Will we hunt down Kurds if they start killing Turks?

[Kenny Bunk]

Destro, I am really well disposed to believe this. But as much as I would like to, I am having a very hard time believing that sentence with "Kurds," and "democracy," in it.

These boys are plenty rough, and like the Afghans, when no one is fighting them, they fight each other. I would like to see an independent Kurdistan set up, carved out of Iraq and Iran, but if these boys set up a real country, and settle down to peaceful farming, I am going to be the first to buy the drinks.

BTW, they have harbored many al-quaeda ... might even be a few hanging around now.

[Shermy]

Throw the Turkoman minority in to the mix and you'll have a nice stew.

[Destro]

The al-Qaeda are there as they are in Turkey and the Balkans somewhat overt and covertly. I will clarify since unlike Senator Leiberman I wont say the Kurds, like the KLA fight for American values. I meant the attempt at creating a "modern" state in Kurdistan is impressive for the middle east.

Iraq of today to me resembles the Phillipines of the post Spanish-American war. We fought a long time against some of those native tribes in those jungles while other tribes became trusted colonists. Still bloody, still worth doing but not worth cheering.

[marron]

It will be simplified by the fact that it is not a UN occupation. We will (he says, as if he knew what he was saying) be using Iraqis to police Iraqis. Our focus is going to be on chasing the Baathist diehards, and the Islamists, and preparing for the next push. (And where is the next push, you ask?) And building bases and settling in for the long haul. I just have this feeling we are not leaving.

The oil industry is going to be rebuilding just like the rest of the country. There is going to be no shortage of jobs, in a country where jobs and actual salaries have been hard to come by. This is going to limit the temptation to kill each other, this and the "autonomous regions", north, central, and south.

Insurgency in Afghanistan is still a problem because the baddies have safe haven in Pakistan, and we are too weak in the region to do more than patrol, and because there is still no work. In Iraq, we will be there in force, and Iraq's neighbors are not going to want to sponsor this kind of trouble. And there will be work.

I will predict this. If the Kurds are given an equitable share in the oil in their region, they will be quiet. Normal banditry, normal mayhem, normal. If they are not given a share, you will have a bloodbath. Kurds versus Kurds versus Turks versus Sunnis versus Americans. We will eventually be driven out. Its very important that the autonomous regions be given a stake in the oil in their own region.

[marron]

No Turkomans. My post-Saddam model does not allow for Turkomans.