A Long Economic Winter

PrudentBear.com ^ | 05-Feb-2003 | Richard Benson

[Doctor Stochastic]

The author is rather optimistic, isn't he? Things don't look nearly that bright.

[wideawake]

The Roman Empire will be glad to hear that!

Actually, Spain, Portugal, France, England, Switzerland, Italy, Greece, Romania and Turkey don't have it all that bad, as things go.

[upcountryhorseman]

You have to admit; the Roman Empire lasted a hell of
a long time!

[the gillman@blacklagoon.com]

However, the republic was fairly short lived.

We are at the end of the republic. Whether or not we become a great empire or crumble to dust, is the big question to be answered in the next decade.

[AdamSelene235]

It might be worth noting (if you actually want to consider all of the evidence prior to making a "conclusion") that the U.S. economy GREW during the year and Quarter in which this article was written.

The majority of the "growth" was due to mortgage refinancing.

and inflation is dead.

Not quite...We are going to have inflation ( a monetary phenomenon) and deflation ( a credit collapse) simultaneously. Contrary to the Fed, the solution to malinvestment is not another, cheaper loan.

Let's not all be feminized by Leftist gloom and political correctness. Buck up, gentlemen! We are at war!

Agreed.

[AdamSelene235]

Don't fall for the leftist trap of responding to their cries that the economic sky is falling by claiming that it isn't falling. If the sky falls anyway, you're cornered, no fault necessarily of yourself nor of Bush.

Spot on.

[ThePythonicCow]

We are at the end of the republic.

Some would say the Republic ended with Lincoln. Some would say it has been dying for a century. I would point to the passage of the 16th and 17th ammendments and the establishment of the Federal Reserve, all in 1913, as a landmark year in its demise.

[DaBroasta]

I think the prudent bear is full of bull.

[sourcery]

I think the prudent bear is full of bull.

Regardless of the merits of your opinion, the way you state it strongly suggests that it is based on emotion more than on reason.

[Toirdhealbheach Beucail]

Feasting on the bodies of the dead. You forgot feasting on the bodies of the dead....

[arete]

The consumer pull-back will trigger the Long Economic Winter.

I thought that I detected a chill in the air. Amazing that people still don't want to believe that the good time economy of the late 90's is over -- and gone.

Richard W.

[DaBroasta]

Regardless of the merits of your opinion, the way you state it strongly suggests that it is based on emotion more than on reason.

And regardless of the merits of my opinion, the fact that Richard Benson is president of Specialty Finance Group, LLC , offering diversified investment banking services

strongly suggests that the author's motivation is based more on personal gain than reason. I'm almost curious to see what "specialty" financial products he's recommending for the impending "doom."

[arete]

I would point to the passage of the 16th and 17th ammendments and the establishment of the Federal Reserve, all in 1913, as a landmark year in its demise.

Inflate or die. When you can no longer inflate, you die. That's the FED.

Richard W.

[the gillman@blacklagoon.com]

Ah, jeez!, how could I have forgotten that?

*@$$%&*~@@!!!

How could I have forgotten the feasting on the dead?

Ya can't have depopulation, famine and plague without feasting on the dead!

[ThePythonicCow]

Inflate or die.

Yup - well said.

[sourcery]

the author's motivation is based more on personal gain than reason

There is always the danger of that, regardless of the persons involved. However, Mr. Benson has provided us with the facts, and his reasoned analysis of them. Provide you'd like to make a comparable effort to present the justification for your opinion--instead of an emotional reaction?

[sourcery]

"Provide you'd like" -> "Perhaps you'd like"

[the gillman@blacklagoon.com]

The Fed seems like a milestone to me, too.

One of the great plusses of predicting History, is that if you predict a certain transference or transformation on a certain date, and are off by fifty years, that's still very precise, when measured against the totality of civilized human existence.

If our republic lasts two hundred, or two hundred fifty years, that's essentially the same amount of time.

Prediction is easier the farther away from the game you are.

We are at the end of the republic now, do you really think we have fifty years?

[ThePythonicCow]

Inflate or ...

Speaking of which, Billy_bob_bob's post on another thread:

Green Inflation and Ham,
by B.B.B. Suess.

is a classic - as you noted, he's outdone himself.

[arete]

comparable effort to present the justification for your opinion--instead of an emotional reaction?

Emotional reactions are so much more fun than reason and fact.

Richard W.