Prepare for the Meltup

Clive Maund editorials ^ | January 1, 2003 | Clive Maund

[Cicero]

I should add that this is neither an offer to buy or sell and everyone reads it at his own risk.

Nevertheless, it's clear that there has been a major breakthrough in gold. There may be some pullbacks, but it looks as if we are going into a major bull market much like the one in the 1970s, after a very long bear market drove everyone out of gold.

IMHO Clive Maund is a very smart technical analyst.

[qwas]

Gold will hit $400 oz within a month.

[imawit]

S......'CUSE ME, but tell me just exactly specifically and without rhetoric ...

WHY IS GOLD OVERBOUGHT ?

[qwert]

Can anyone suggest a few good Gold Companys to invest in now...? Some companys with a upside potential ?

Thank you

[Cicero]

"Overbought" is a technical term, meaning that it is getting above the trend lines. So, at some point it will presumably have a correction or a pullback before resuming its uptrend.

My own reading is that there may be a bit of a correction soon, but then again there may not, because we are probably on the verge of a huge long-term bull market in gold.

I bought a few shares of a junior Canadian gold stock on Friday when the market opened. It had closed at 2.14 the day before, so I was rather upset to find that I had paid 2.34 for it. But by the end of the day, it closed at 2.68. What will happen when the market opens tomorrow? I don't know.

[Cicero]

I've just been looking into this myself. You want to avoid companies that have been hedging gold, such as Barrick. The best recent list I've seen is one put together by Clive Maund which he calls "Top of the Pops."

You can find it at http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund120402_goldstocks.html

[qwas]

I own physical gold myself, so I haven't been keeping too close an eye on gold stocks. Just be sure to buy one that is unhedged. Check out some of the gold forums on the internet - there must be a million of them. I think that gold will be to 2003 what tech stocks were to the early 90's. Get on board for the ride up!

[qwert]

What was the name of the Company ?

Thanx

[imawit]

The primary driving force for the gold bull market is, of course, the dollar bear market.

He left out some very important factors.

First of all, gold is money more than it's anything else. Other than paper nothing else is used as a representative of money and dollars (and foreign dollars) and these dollars are still being used in coinage as money.

Second, every factor mentioned in the article will drive gold up.

Thirdly, over or under bought or sold is not the question. The question is, what has value and will increase in value. Not the stock market, not bonds. This leaves only gold. AND, no one needs to be educated about it's value. Many had to be educated about it's no value and that's doomed to failure. Bottom line, it's really nice stuff to have regardless of what anyone says.

Fourthly, it is a very nice alternative to store one's savings or wealth in. The dollar, stocks and bonds are the wrong thing at the moment. Soybeans, corn, wheat, sugar, oil are pretty difficult to store your wealth in. And people worry about how to handle gold. Sheeeeeeze, gimme a break.

Finally, nothing else will compare until stocks are in a buy low sell high situation (price is really below a sane P/E), Greenspan and the FED stop inflating the supply of dollars, deflating its worth and finally bonds wring themselves out of their low yield in conjunction with the FEDs swearing they will not buy them to monetize them and keep interest rates down. ANY BODY SEE THESE THINGS HAPPENING SOON ??????

[DeaconBenjamin]

Things look fairly volatile this morning:

http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif

[Cicero]

Western Copper Holdings, which despite its name is mainly a silver play. (Silver also suddenly broke out on the upside on Friday. It's even more a subject of analyst laughter than gold, but that may finally be changing too.)

You can take your pick between the larger, more liquid companies like Agnico Eagle and Goldcorp, or you can take a flyer on some of the Canadian juniors. The problem, I am finding, is that most of them are trading most actively on the TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange). Many are also traded on the COMEX junior exchange, but as I found with Western Copper the prices are slower to be posted there.

I also like Silverado Gold Mines, which is smaller than some of the better known mines but seems to be more liquid and therefore easier to get in and out of without large price swings.

[Cicero]

Sorry, I meant the NASDAQ junior, not the COMEX junior.

[Cicero]

It looks as if gold popped up in Sydney and Hong Kong, but then dropped back down to 352 (which is still very high considering where it's been the past few years). There is support at 340 and if that fails what should be very strong support at 330, the former resistence level.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

[imawit]

Yeah, I understand the technical aspect but the trend lines are on phony manipulated points.

Pardon the little game. I was trolling for that comeback.

[OK]

Just IMHO: Harmony Gold, Golden Star Resources, Caledonia Mining, Durban Roodepoort Deep, Randgold, Samex, Glamis, among others. Of course that depends on a rising gold price. I also think gold is still cheap, but if it goes down, the miners will really suffer.

[Cicero]

Most news analysts will connect the gold rise with Iraq. But the reasons are both technical and fundamental. Iraq is only important in that news about the war may cause temporary rises and pullbacks. But the real cause is weakness in the dollar and other fiat currencies, which apparently is finally coming home to roost.

[Cicero]

Of the South Africans, I like Durban Deep the best. Perhaps there's less political risk in the North American companies.

[Semaphore Heathcliffe]

GLG and GG are solid North American companies. GG pays dividend. South African un-hedged include GFI, HMY, and DROOY. GFI and HMY pay dividend. CALVF, which this guy mentioned in his article looks to have nice upside potential. All South Africans should be considered with the caveat that nationalization is an underlying threat.

GG - Goldcorp
GLG - Glamis
GFI - Goldfields
HMY - Harmony
DROOY - Durban Roodepoort Deep
CALVF - Caledonia

[imawit]

I concur. And mention again, see my post #9, "Finally", the FEDs are feeding it by the minute by the dollar printed.

[Semaphore Heathcliffe]

"I say, old chap...have you any interest in a MELTUP?!?"