Posted on 12/17/2002 8:16:30 AM PST by KQQL
Senate Republican Leader Trent Lott's insensitive remarks have triggered a chain of events that could put a black Democrat in his Senate seat.
State Democratic Party Chairman Rickey Cole said if Lott resigns and Gov. Ronnie Musgrove appoints a replacement, Jackson lawyer Mike Espy would be the best choice. "If I had to pick, it would be Secretary Espy, hands down," Cole said. "He has Washington experience, and he's proven that he can build biracial coalitions. It would immediately begin the healing process."
Espy, who served in Congress and as U.S. secretary of agriculture, "would make a fine senator" if Lott is forced to quit the Senate because of his racially charged remarks at Sen. Strom Thurmond's 100th birthday party, Cole said.
For now, Lott is resisting suggestions that he resign. But political observers are already discussing possible replacements for Lott. The list includes Espy, Attorney General Mike Moore, recently defeated U.S. Rep. Ronnie Shows and Rep. Chip Pickering, the Republican who beat Shows last month.
If Lott resigns, state law would require Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, a Democrat, to appoint a replacement. A special election would be held within 90 days if the senator left this year. If he resigned in 2003, though, the election for the seat would coincide with next year's Nov. 4 balloting for statewide offices.
Assuming Musgrove would appoint another Democrat, either scenario would temporarily alter the partisan balance of the U.S. Senate, which Republicans now control by a two-seat margin. Equally interesting, though, is the impact Lott's resignation would have on state politics.
Start with Musgrove, who would have to appoint Lott's replacement. "Everything Ronnie Musgrove does is going to be to enhance his re-election prospects," said Marty Wiseman, a political scientist at Mississippi State University.
That could mean appointing a black to galvanize that base.
Espy probably has the most statewide appeal of any black Democrat. He demonstrated his ability to win votes from white and black voters from 1987 to 1993, when he represented Mississippi's 2nd Congressional District. In 1998, a four-year, $20 million corrputon investigation by Independent Counsel Donald Smaltz ended in Espy's acquittal.
Still, black Democrats are traditionally underdogs in Mississippi, which hasn't elected a black official in statewide balloting since Reconstruction.
Moore, a Democrat, may face better odds. Moore, who like Lott is from Pascagoula, is known nationwide for helping direct lawsuits against tobacco companies in the mid-1990s. He and Musgrove have often butted heads, though. Moore has even been rumored as a potential Musgrove rival for next year's Democratic gubernatorial nomination.
Another possibility is Shows, a Democrat from Bassfield who lost a bitter race against Pickering. Shows is "damaged goods right now, but he won't be damaged goods for long," Wiseman said.
On the GOP side, Pickering, a former Lott aide, is considered the senator's protege. Earlier this year, Lott was the chief backer of Pickering's father, U.S. District Judge Charles Pickering, who was nominated to the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals by President Bush. Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee killed the nomination by charging that the elder Pickering was insensitive to minorities.
It wouldn't be hard to imagine a campaign by the junior Pickering to reclaim Lott's seat.
And, said Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, the GOP should hope that Lott leaves this year, forcing an election within 90 days.
"Republicans would win, no question, if there were a shorter amount of time before the election," Sabato said.
Regardless of his partisan affiliation, any new senator would be less adept than Lott at bringing money to South Mississippi. Northrop Grumman Ingalls and local military bases would be more reliant on Sen. Thad Cochran, a Republican from Jackson who sits on the Senate Appropriations Committee.
Unless Lott changes his mind about his political future, though, such scenarios remain in the realm of imagination.
"Politics is a lot of fun to watch," Wiseman said. "It can be a lot more fun to watch than football, certainly from a Mississippi State perspective."
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