Zogby was NOT the most accurate in 2000 Presidential poll

National Council on Public Polls (NCPP) ^ | January 3, 2001 | National Council on Public Polls (NCPP)

[eureka!]

See #14. Very interesting, IMHO...

[Gophack]

Very interesting analysis. I imagine that you are right on the money. For example, the Democrats are all sending Capitol staff (here in CA) to one Central Valley District (17 -- Dem incumbent Barbara Matthews vs. Rep challenger Brian McCabe) because they are worried about her. We always know where the Dems have their big concern -- look at where they send their staff.

The race between Simon and Davis is going to be very close. I think last month I predicted Simon by 2-3 pts. I think it's Simon by 1, 45 to 44 with 6 for Camejo and 5 split among all the other candidates. Very, very close. Close enough where cheating could make a difference. Everyone needs to be vigilent at their polls and watch for improprieties. Volunteer to be a poll watcher in solid Dem areas. Democrats have stolen races in California before, particularly in the Central Valley. We need to make sure they can't steal the governorship.

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

Anybody heard anything about the Dole race in NC?

[Gophack]

Everything I've heard has been positive, but that's just national media. I will say, however, that this morning I was listening to talking heads (Rep and Dem) on close races, and the Dem was very optimistic about Mondale and Carnahan, and on Dole she said, "It's a tough battle, but turnout will help us." Far less optimistic than the other two. The Republican said, "North Carolina is a Republican state, Dole wins."

[Sonny M]

What about Phil Graham, he's of arabic descent, but the key is, he's not an islamic animal, and he's american first.

[rb22982]

Yes but his statewide polls were way off. He had minnesota for Gore by like 9, and Gore won by 2.5%, and had California in a dead heat and Bush lost by double digits.

[JDGreen123]

Thanks for the great info! I have always wondered if there is some scorecard somewhere that ranks these organizations for accuracy over time. I would love to see something like a sports league standings table with a running accuracy rate and who is first, second, third, etc. I figure if there is such a chart the pollsters hide it. It would be great to whip out though when you hear all these different polls and spins.

[MHT]

And he screwed up Illinois thinking that Moseley-Braun would win--and he screwed up the SC primary on behalf of McCain. He's ok with national trends but doesn't understand the complexity of individual states or regions other than east or west coast.

[MHT]

Well, Gore's worst error was in trying to win Florida, when he SHOULD have been back in his home state of Tennessee campaigning there. If only he had won TN, the whole question of Florida would have been moot.....

[Ed_in_LA]

Zogby didn't do a Minnesota poll in 2000. Here's a list of his final state projections in 2000, along with the acutal results in parentheses:

California: Bush 44% Gore 47% (42%-54%)

Florida: Bush 46% Gore 48% (49%-49%)

Illinois: Bush 43% Gore 50% (43%-55%)

Michigan: Bush 45% Gore 51% (46%-51%)

Missouri: Bush 48% Gore 47% (50%-47%)

New York: Bush 37% Gore 56% (35%-60%)

Ohio : Bush 48% Gore 45% (50%-46%)

Pennsylvania: Bush 42% Gore 50% (46%-51%)

Tennessee: Bush 52% Gore 45% (51%-47%)

Washington: Bush 43% Gore 50% (46%-50%)

Wisconsin: Bush 46% Gore 48% (48%-48%)

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/2000/polls.htm

[TLBSHOW]

zogby poll is wrong its not a tie or the economy stupid

Paul Begala called his book "It is still the economy stupid" and now John Zogby appears and says the same thing. I wonder if Carville thought this plan up? Mind you this poll was taken before the Wellstone mess that the democrats did the other night.

The new zogby poll is out and John says its the economy that is on voters minds and that America is at a tie again.

I hate to shatter zogbys dream but from what I see the defense of this nation is number one and we are about to see a republican landslide next week in the 2002 election. Just like the profilers were way off with the sniper, so is Zogby with the 2002 election.

[going hot]

." It was very like 20.

Funny, I seem to recall it was more like 54 in the house.

[OldFriend]

Zogby supporters, like Clinton supporters will NEVER EVER admit their guy's corrupt.

Zogby polls are designed to influence.......not reflect. Much the same is true of ALL the media polls. Notice the FNC poll that Dick Morris gleefully reported that didn't coincide with ANY other polls and was completely off the mark.

[habs4ever]

Good analysis, thanks for the information.Dick Morris asserted for a longtime that his internals(polls) had Clinton way ahead of Dole in the spring of 1996 and the election was in the bag.No wonder they were so cocky.

[69ConvertibleFirebird]

Bump for future reference...

[Tennessean4Bush]

Gore did not campaign in TN because it is too conservative. He knew he had a better chance in FL.